I12 Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis

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I12 Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis
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Develop ocean and coupled synthesis/reanalysis
systems providing input to present and future
decadal prediction efforts

• Major uncertainties in predictions (SI and
  DEC/CEN) originate from uncertainties in the
  models initial condition and from errors in
  coupled models.
• Ocean syntheses are now being used to initialize
  coupled models. However, mismatch in model
  physics lead to initialization shocks. Errors in
  coupled models lead to fast degradation.
• To overcome those, the assimilation needs to be
  performed in the coupled model framework to
  obtain proper initial conditions.
• At the same time a coupled assimilation system
  will allow to reduce model errors through
  parameter optimization.

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Develop ocean and coupled synthesis/reanalysis
systems providing input to present and future
decadal prediction efforts

• Some proto type coupled assimilation systems do
  exist (GFDL, K7). However, much needs to be done
  to understand and improve first encouraging
  results.
• New coupled assimilation systems need to be
  developed to
• Produce initial conditions.
• Improve model parameters.
• Among others, this is underway as part of THOR
  and national efforts.
• Requires close collaboration between GSOP, WGMD,
  WGSIP, WOAP, atmospheric reanalysis communities
  and others.
• Needs and already has close collaboration with
  IPCC.

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Develop ocean and coupled synthesis/reanalysis
systems providing input to present and future
decadal prediction efforts

• Timeline
• Improvements of initialization ongoing
• Use of existing coupled system ongoing and
  expanding
• Development of coupled systems next 5 years.
• List the needs from national/regional programs
  Are needed.
• Needs skillful people! Computer resources!
• List the needs from CLIVAR (workshops, working
  group etc.)
• GSOP Meetings
• 1. Workshop on Initialization planned for late
  this year.
• Next Reanalysis Conference
• Workshop on Initialization and Coupled
  Assimilation early 2011