Footballers' fallacies

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Footballers' fallacies

• Peter Ayton Anna Braennberg (City University
  London)

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Footballers' fallacies

• 1) Vulnerable just after scoring?
• 2) Goal just before half-time has more impact?
• 3) Form Are players who scored in preceding
  games more likely to score in their next game
  (the hot foot)?

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Footballers' fallacies A Survey of Professional
premier league footballers

• Do you think teams are temporarily more
  vulnerable just after scoring a goal?
• 11/15
• Do you think teams are more likely to concede a
  goal just after scoring than at other times
  during a game?
• 6/15
• Imagine you go in at half-time from a game 1-0
  ahead. Do you think it is better if the goal was
  scored just before half-time rather than earlier
  in the game?
• 9/15
• Do you think it gives you a better chance of
  winning the game if the goal was scored just
  before half-time rather than earlier in the game?
• 5/15
• Do you think players go on and off form even when
  fully match fit?
• 14/15
• Imagine one of your players had scored in each of
  his last two games. Do you think he would be
  more or less likely than usual to score in the
  next game?
• More likely 13/15

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The hot foot?
Alan Shearer
Shearer scores in 50/8658 of his games but in
24/3666 of games where he had not scored
previously and 26/5052 of games where he
previously had scored.
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The hot foot?
Alan Shearer
Shearer scores in 50/8658 of his games but in
24/3666 of games where he had not scored
previously and 26/5052 of games where he
previously had scored.
But Alternation problem home games alternate
with away games and players score more at home
than away
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The hot foot?
Alan Shearer (Home games only)
At home Shearer scores in 34/4379 of games. If
he failed to score in his previous game then his
hit-rate is 17/2085. If he scored in his last
game then his hit-rate is lower at 17/2374.
Alan Shearer (Away games only)
Shearer scored in 16 away games and failed to
score in 27 - a rate of 16/4337. If he had
previously not scored his hit rate was 7/1644.
But if he had scored last game then his rate
9/2733.
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The hot foot?
Top 12 Premier League scorers (Home games only)
Just looking at home games, our sample of players
score in 196/45143 of the games. If they had
been previously unsuccessful (including ocasions
when the previous game was away) then the rate
was 125/29842 if they were previously
successful then the rate was 71/15346. ?2 (1
df) .88 (p0.366)
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The hot foot?
Top 12 Premier League scorers (Home games only)
Just looking at home games, our sample of players
score in 196/45143 of the games. If they had
been previously unsuccessful (including ocasions
when the previous game was away) then the rate
was 125/29842 if they were previously
successful then the rate was 71/15346. ?2 (1
df) .88 (p0.366)
Top 12 Premier League scorers (All games)
?2 (1 df) .190 (p0.663)
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355 Premier League games that were poised 1-0 at
half time
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Across two Premier League seasons 127 games ended
1-1.
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Footballers' fallacies

• Despite the increasing use of statistics in
  football coverage, these often have a
  "trainspotter" uselessness about them. Perhaps
  the last time a goalkeeper whose mother-in-law's
  maiden name began with a "Q" saved a penalty in
  the 2nd half of an FA cup semi-final was in 1897,
  but.?
• Maybe the pundits would be embarrassed by more
  rigorous analyses. Wagenaar (1989) analysed all
  world cup final tournaments from 1930-86 and
  found 172 triads of matches (A played B A played
  C B played C) and 30 intransitivities. This
  indicates that only 5 per cent of the variance
  could be atrributed to due to team strength95
  of the outcome of each game is due to non-stable
  factors - chance if you will.
• Wagenaar argues that it is this uncertainty that
  makes games exciting. If it were possible to
  predict the result, they would be boring.
• Perhaps dispensing with proper analysis in sport
  gives more room for the endless "debate" which
  inevitably accompanies sport. I suspect it is
  largely froth and about as insightful as a the TV
  commentary on the numbers drawn in the Lottery.