Workpackage 3 Definition of 3 scenarios Progress WP3: Quantitative and qualitative aspects of the sc

1
Workpackage 3 Definition of 3
scenarios Progress WP3 Quantitative and
qualitative aspects of the scenarios

• STEPS consortium meeting
• Gé Huismans, Albert Jansen, SenterNovem
• May, 19th 2005, KRAKOW

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Overview of presentation

• Formulating the scenarios
• A0 - A1 - A2 / B0 - B1 - B2
• Building the scenarios
• Qualitative
• structured along the SN-system
• general
• specific measures
• essay
• Quantitative
• from general and specific measures -gt input
  parameters
• Description of the work/ discussion

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Social-economic system gt BAU

• BAU
• General
• GDP, average incomes and demographics (1-P hh)
  most important drivers for transport demand
• Car-use culturally and socially dependent and
  with national, regional and local differences
• Car-sharing
• no special actions for car-sharing car ownership
  will increase, especially in new EU Member States
  and in rural regions
• Taxation on fuels
• Excise rates will grow, affecting New Member
  States.
• Change in taxation from purchase to use but in
  general the tax burden more or less the same, as
  to soften the higher fuel prices
• Kerosine will finally be taxed

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Social-economic system gt BAU DR

• Demand Regulation
• Car-sharing
• Legislative profits when car-sharing
  Europe-wide, upto local levels
• Higher taxes when purchasing and using the car
  restricted entrance for non-sharing cars
• Regional differences ...
• Taxation on fuels
• Excise rates will grow rapidly and heavily,
  especially for the more pollution fuels
• Increased fuel prices are not compensated
  anymore instead taxes
• Kerosine will finally be heavily taxed to create
  a level-playing-field between modes
• Regional differences

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Social-economic System
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Spatial System gt BAU

• BAU
• General
• Urban sprawl continued (residential, office,
  retail)
• No Daily Urban System Minimum mixed-use
• Some central and nodal developments and
  browfield rest greenfield
• Regional differences ...
• Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land
  use)
• small/ no increment in central urban area
  res/office/retail
• moderate increment inner urban res/office/retail
• huge increment outer urban res/office/retail
• biggest effects in new member states
• Regional differences ...

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Spatial System gt BAU DR

• Demand Regulation
• Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land
  use)
• Legislation to mix activities at all spatial
  levels, inability for greenfield/hypermarket
  developments tax on land take, land banks,
• End to domination of urban sprawl (2015 onwards)
• Daily Urban System more close, more dense, more
  local, more regional, more mixed, more slow modes
  based
• Inner cities and (inner urban) nodal developments
  extreme popular, just as new cities around rail
  at short distance from existing cities
• Brownfields (incl. former office locations)
  highly mixed, medium/high density
• Regional differences ...

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Spatial System
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Passenger Transport System gt BAU

• BAU
• General
• no decoupling GDP / pass. Kms
• Growing incomes to spend on transport
• Car has major role in local and regional
  transport
• Aviation dominates intra-European travel
• Regional differences
• Investment in local public transport
  infrastructure
• Decrease (national, regional, local)
• End-user cost increase
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU (2)

• BAU
• Investment in European Rail Networks
• Slight increase Ten-T and TINA networks are
  planned construction unclear and dependent on
  (extra investments)
• Regional differences ...
• Investment in regional rail
• Decrease (national, regional, local)
• End-user cost increase
• Slight shift towards rail due to congestion
• Private companies entering the PT-business
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU (3)

• BAU
• Speed reduction
• Some cities and regions have introduced speed
  reduction measures
• On 10 of the EU-network speed reduction
  measurements have been taken
• Regional differences ...
• Road Pricing
• Some cities and regions have introduced road
  pricing
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU (4)

• BAU
• Lower transport for PT users
• Some measures for lower cost free fares in
  parts of the urban area
• Increase of transport cost
• Regional differences ...
• Extending telework
• Few initiatives taken EU-wide
• No significant change in commuting trips
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU T (1)

• Investment in local public transport investment
• increase investment 100 free lanes, extended
  lines, new (light weight material), ICT, service
  providers
• Investment in European Rail Networks
• Most of the planned lines have been built
  bottlenecks eliminated, new lines built or
  extended
• Investment in regional rail
• increase investment 100 free lanes, extended
  lines, new (light weight material), ICT, service
  providers

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU DR (1)

• Speed reduction
• Legislation 40 of the network speed reduction,
  especially in urban areas
• Road Pricing
• legislation from 2009 on all cities over 80.000
  inhabitants have introduced road pricing
• entrance permissions for specific cars only

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU DR (2)

• Lower transport cost for PT users
• Legislative measures exclusive (free) PR
  facilities and the use of certain streets in
  urban areas exclusively for PT
• Subsidies are re-introduced (paid by congestion
  charging), e.g lower VAT when buying tickets)
• Extending telework
• half of the EU-member states have started
  promoting telework from 2009 onwards
• ALL Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System
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Passenger Transport System (2)
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Freight Transport System gt BAU (1)

• BAU
• General
• Increased GDPgt More freight no decoupling
• More trucking (100)
• Better logistics higher load factor
• Speed reduction
• In some cities and regions speed reduction
  measures
• On 10 of the EU-network speed reduction
  measurements have been taken, especially for
  freight
• Regional differences ...
• Road Pricing
• Some cities and regions have introduced road
  pricing
• Regional differences ...

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Freight Transport System gt BAU (2)

• City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban
  freight distribution
• few cities and regions introduced freight
  distribution policies, e.g restricted delivery
  times, weight etc
• Improving freight rail infra and services
• few investments
• increased road tax more demand rail, but not met
  by extra investmentsgt higher prices
• speed slightly higher
• Improving freight ship infra and services
• few investments in inland waterways (small share)
  and short sea shipping (great share)
• speed slightly higher

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Freight Transport System gt BAU T (1)

• City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban
  freight distribution
• huge investments in e.g. trackingtracing, city
  logistics centres, delivery/city boxes, other
  modes (bikes, small electric cars) for the last
  mile, coöperation between different logistic
  firms, budgets for marketing and implementation
  of these conceps to overcome marketbarriers
• Improving freight rail infra and services
• 100 extra investments new and extra rail,
  electrification of networks, new rolling stock
  (light weight, aerodynamic)
• higher demand met with extra slots
• higher speed

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Freight Transport System gt BAU T (2)

• Improving freight ship infra and services
• 100 extra investment extra short sea and
  inland
• improvement the ships
• extra and improved infrastructure related to
  (inland) harbours, waterways new and longer
  docks, deeper harbours, cranes,
  containerfacilities, techniques and
  infrastructure for easier passing locks, improved
  possibilities for intermodal freight
• faster shipment

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Freight Transport System gt BAU DR (1)

• Speed reduction
• Legislation 40 of the network speed reduction,
  especially in urban areas, supported by infra
  measures (drive slow, go fast)
• Road Pricing
• legislation from 2009 on all cities over 80.000
  inhabitants have introduced road pricing
• 3/4 of the EU member states charges toll for
  freight
• entrance permissions for specific cars only,
  related to weight, emission factors, etc

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Freight Transport System
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Freight Transport System (2)
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Transport Energy System gt BAU (1)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for car
• Investments decrease
• ongoing improvements in energy efficiency, e.g.
  direct injection, light-weight materials, and
  better aerodynamics - and the legislation on
  emissions (due to e.g air quality) gt slight
  annual decrease fuel consumption
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Investments decrease
• Decreased emissions (Euro every 9 years 50
  reduction)
• Slow decrease conventionals (75), slightly
  growing share for alternatives

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Transport Energy System gt BAU (2)

• BAU
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• hybrids moderate share (15) already small share
  new millennium, growing share due to marketing,
  lower prices, ...
• CNG moderate share (10) implementation quite
  easy already infra for gas distribution.
  Beneficial air quality legislation
• Electric niche market (fleets local authorities,
  etc), small share (max. 1)
• hydrogen small share (some 2), grow after 2020

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Transport Energy System gt BAU (3)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for train
• no mayor investments, only fleet renewal
• Improving energy efficiency for ship
• no mayor investments, only fleet renewal

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (1)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for car
• Investments increased from government and due to
  that also from private companies (share 15 of
  sales)
• sped up improvements in energy efficiency, e.g.
  direct injection, light-weight materials, modest
  powered cars, better aerodynamics - and the
  legislation on emissions (due to e.g air quality)
  gt moderate annual decrease fuel consumption
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Investments increased with 100 (and also by
  private companies)light weight, low noise,
  energy efficient cars, and engines on biofuels,
  batteries fit for electric cars, fuel cell
  technology etc, ready to fit in modern logistic
  concepts.

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (2)

• BAU
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Sped up decrease of emissions (Euro every 5
  years 50 reduction)
• Faster decrease conventionals (55), faster
  growing share for alternatives
• hybrids quite large share (20) already small
  share new millennium, growing share due to
  marketing, lower prices, due to light weight
  batteries, improved traction, improving
  recharging, accompanying legislations on
  emissions
• CNG moderate share (15) implementation quite
  easy and sped up already infra for gas
  distribution. Beneficial air quality legislation

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (3)

• BAU
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Electric improved batteries, expanded niche
  market, to mainstream (fleets local authorities,
  cars for local and regional use), increased share
  (5)
• hydrogen increased share (5), faster growth
  after 2020

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (4)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for train
• 100 extra investments, (lighter) materials for
  trains, engines, traction, use of low-energy
  consuming devices for passengers (light,
  heating), etc. Research on even better
  streamline, lay-out etc of the trains itself and
  on the most energy efficient mode (diesel vs
  electricity) and re-use of the braking energygt
  faster
• Improving energy efficiency for ship
• 100 extra investments, research on other
  (lighter) materials for ships, motors, traction,
  etc. Research on even better streamline, lay-out
  etc of the ship itself, ...

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Transport Energy System
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Transport Energy System (2)
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Transport Energy System (3)
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Transport Energy System (4)
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Transport Energy System (5)
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Scenarios

• Thank you for the attention and discussion

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Formulating the scenarios
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Structuring the scenarios (examples how the
measures relate to our system)
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Structuring the scenarios (examples how the
measures relate to our system)
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Structuring the scenarios uniform structure

• EACH SCENARIO IS DESCRIBED WITH THE FOLLOWING
  ASPECTS
• General introduction the basics of that specific
  scenario
• A more detailed qualitative description of the
  scenario, on variable level (based on the 21
  variables selected)
• On a EU-level impact on the transport and energy
  system. This qualitative description is the basis
  for the quantification of the variable
• On a regional scale
• Scenario is finalised by summarising the scores
  of all relevant variables within the scenario
  this quanitified description is the basis for WP4

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Describing the scenarios

• For each subsystem we compare both the
• BAU
• BAU . -scenario
• Both Qualitative and Quantitative