California Dreaming: Demography, Inequality and Economic Growth in a Time of Crisis

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California Dreaming? Demography, Inequality
and Economic Growth in a Time of Crisis

• Manuel Pastor
• December 2008

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La Conyuntura vs. the Long-run

• We tend to think about short-term pressures and
  politics . . .

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La Conyuntura vs. the Long-run

• We tend to think about short-term pressures and
  politics . . .

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La Conyuntura vs. the Long-run

• We tend to think about short-term pressures and
  politics . . .

• . . . So we better look long-term as well.

• If we do, three trends demographic,
  distributional, economic are rocking
  California, and set the stage for a new social
  contract

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Leading the U.S. in Demographic Change
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Immigration as a Factor
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Foreign Born Population by Census Tract
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California Looking Forward, 2000-2050
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California Looking Forward, 2000-2050
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The Future is Now . . .
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Our Common Future?

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California Also Leading in Inequality . . .

• Considering the ratio of the top fifth of
  families to bottom fifth of families, we are the
  sixth most unequal state

• Considering the ratio of the top five percent of
  families to the bottom fifth of families, we are
  the eighth most unequal state

• And we are becoming more unequal faster than
  thirty-two other states.

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Race Matters
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It Isnt Just Immigration
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Growth in Working Poor
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How Can We Narrow the Divide?

• Insure sustainable economic growth

• Provide education and training for workers of
  today and tomorrow

• Create labor and community standards that set new
  floors

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Sustainable Economic Growth?
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Changing Returns to Education
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Changing Returns to Education
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Relative Education Levels in California
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Looking Forward
Network engineer or programmer? Hmm . . .
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Can We Meet Our Challenges?
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Think About the Federal Agenda

• This is a moment of unparalleled and fundamental
  change role of government in market and the
  social balance of power

• Everything should be framed in terms of
  investment impacts for the future and the role of
  equity and unions in sustaining the economy

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A New Story, A New Hope

• Preparing for a new generation
• Understanding and developing a new narrative that
  connects us