Demographic Fear in Northern Ireland Politics, Society and Space

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Demographic Fear in Northern Ireland Politics,
Society and Space

• Owen McEldowney
• David McNair
• Stuart Lavery
• Centre for Spatial and Territorial Analysis and
  Research (C-STAR)
• School of GeographyQueen's University
  BelfastBelfast BT7 1NN
• o.mceldowney_at_qub.ac.uk
• d.mcnair_at_qub.ac.uk
• s.lavery_at_qub.ac.uk

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Unionist fear of census decline the release of
the 2001 Northern Ireland census results
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• There is inescapable evidence that there has
  been a change,"
• This will concretise the view that for
  nationalists and republicans this is the end
  phase. There is a majority emerging.
• Guardian, April 12, 2001 Collapse of Ulster deal
  feared Sinn Fein seeks to combat anti-agreement
  unionists

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• "The countdown scenario is emerging"
• Guardian, April 12, 2001 Collapse of Ulster deal
  feared Sinn Fein seeks to combat anti-agreement
  unionists
• Republicans feel "a sense of destiny".
• Guardian, April 12, 2001 No agreement But the
  future in Ulster need not be bleak

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• There is no nationalist majority in Northern
  Ireland, nor is there any likelihood of one. The
  Belfast Agreement represents a transition to a
  normal peaceful society, not to a United Ireland.
• .there is no dynamic within the Belfast
  Agreement towards Irish unity, nor does any such
  desire exist in Northern Ireland.
• Belfast News Letter, April 13, 2001, Friday
  REALITY DAWNING ON SF TRIMBLE 'AGREEMENT DOES
  NOT PROVIDE THE DYNAMIC FOR UNITY'

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Census day to Keystats release

• Trimbles calls for referendum to prove no pro
  united Ireland majority to keep Protestant fear
  down
• McLaughlin keeps pushing majority line and says
  the Brits were conspiring with NISRA delaying the
  census because of the shock it would cause
• Over 200 articles of newspaper speculation on the
  census religion headcount despite no data

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• 29 January 2002
• The Chill Factor
• 12 February 2002
• Counting on the Union
• Tide of history

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David McKittrick, Headlines, Independent,
February 11 2002

• Unionists filled with foreboding at loss of
  influence
• Protestants losing majority in Northern Ireland
• THE PROTESTANT majority in Northern Ireland, the
  mainstay of the state for eight decades, may have
  almost disappeared, demographic experts believe.

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• CATHOLIC MAJORITY' SPARKS UNITY CALL Belfast
  News Letter December 16, 2002, Tuesday ULSTER
  Unionist MP Jeffrey Donaldson has called for
  unionist unity as the prospect of a Catholic
  majority voting for an all-Ireland threatens to
  become a reality.The anti-Agreement Assembly
  member was reacting to a census which will this
  week reveal that the Protestant population has
  fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in
  the history of the state.

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• "Nationalists can't have it both ways."They
  can't claim the consent of the majority isn't
  sufficient for a system of government and on the
  other hand claim that massive constitutional
  change would only require the consent of an
  overall majority "
• December 16, 2002 Irish News A united Ireland
  could be a reality

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• Clearly there would have to be some sort of
  statement of will expressed at the ballot box
  other than 4950 per cent
• That would not be enough to define an expression
  of will.More than a simple majority would be
  needed, otherwise people would question the poll
  and who voted in the poll.
• Irish News, December 16, 2002, A united
  Ireland could be a reality

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• "What would be needed would be a majority
  within each community, because that has been the
  only agreed way of making any governmental
  decision within Northern Ireland."Any practical
  deal has had to be cross-community because it
  must be something that does last, and not just a
  decision for one year which could be reversed the
  next year."
• Irish News, December 16, 2002, A united Ireland
  could be a reality

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• "I believe the census will confirm the pro-union
  population is shrinking to the extent that for
  the first time it will represent less than
  50."It is understandable that unionists are
  nervous and unsure about the future given the
  demographic trend, but refusal to face change
  will not prevent it."
• Belfast Telegraph December 16, 2002 Protestants
  drop below 50 SF claim my italics

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Irish News  December 09, 2002 "Turning to the
results of last year's census, Sir Reg said that
they will show a growing Roman Catholic
population, a decreasing proportion of
Protestants and an increasing percentage of
'others'.And he warned that if divisions in
unionism continue it will be overtaken by a
''rampant nationalism'' in a future
election.The Ulster Unionist veteran said he
had seen power shift towards nationalism in
Belfast and in the Fermanagh South-Tyrone
constituency.
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• Sunday Tribune, 15 December 2002, Susan McKay
  Northern State of Confusion
• A Nationalist Party could easily emerge as the
  largest party after the scheduled assembly
  elections
• Imagine if Gerry Adams was swaggering around New
  York as the leading politician in Northern
  Ireland? Do you think I am scaremongering?
  Believe me I am not.

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• United Ireland is not even a remote
  possibility.
• The figures are much better than many people
  were predicting but I don't like to rely on some
  sort of sectarian head count
• Republican hopes dashed after census say
  unionists December 20, 2002 Irish News

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• Catholic share of the population will never
  reach 50 per cent and certainly not in the next
  20 to 30 years. (paraphrased)
• The challenge therefore for nationalism and
  republicanism is to stop dreaming that they can
  either breed or bomb Northern Ireland out of the
  UK and start to genuinely cooperate with
  unionists"

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Bombed Out, Blown Out and Bred Out!
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• The DUP said an all-Ireland was now a republican
  pipe-dream and claimed Northern Ireland would
  remain part of the UK for another 50 years..
• The figures were a "devastating" blow to Sinn
  Fein."Unionists can take heart. For the past
  four decades before every census, republicans and
  nationalists have anticipated an closing of the
  Protestant/Catholic gap and claimed demography
  would make a united Ireland inevitable, " the
  east-Belfast assembly man said."Each time they
  have been proven wrong."December 20, 2002,
  Irish News

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• DUP assembly member Edwin Poots said one of the
  major points raised by the figures was the
  relatively high number of young Protestants
  leaving to study or work in England and
  Scotland."It is the responsibility of
  universities and employers to provide career
  opportunities to retain these young Protestants
  in Northern Ireland and for politicians to
  address the perceived chill factor in existence
  at present
• December 20, 2002, Irish News

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Unionist fear of the election
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Lord Molyneaux (by letter),Majority is
threatened by trap to snare votes, in Newsletter
(26.11.2003)

• After the 1998 results, there were 58 Unionist
  seats in the Assembly, only three over the number
  required for a majority. If Unionists succumb to
  the SDLPs advances for votes and transfers more
  than three Unionist seats could fall to
  Nationalists. Unionists would become a minority
  in the new assembly. The SDLP are duping
  Unionists that a vote for them is a vote for the
  Agreement ...

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Lord Molyneaux (by letter),Majority is
threatened by trap to snare votes, in Newsletter
(26.11.2003)

• After the votes are counted, would the SDLP still
  claim Unionist votes as being only for the
  agreement, or would they claim them for their
  policy of restricting the flying of the Union
  flag, for their United Ireland agenda and their
  other Nationalist policies. If Unionist members
  were a minority in the Assembly would Sinn Fein
  and the SDLP not hold this up as a step towards a
  United Ireland? A preference for the SDLP before
  all other Unionist candidates risks real damage
  to the Unionist cause. ..1

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Lord Molyneaux (by letter),Majority is
threatened by trap to snare votes, in Newsletter
(26.11.2003)

• Over the 30 years of Troubles, have the SDLP ever
  advised their voters to transfer to Unionist
  democrats rather than to the terrorist-linked
  party of Sinn Fein/IRA? The bulk of transferred
  votes from the SDLP have always gone to Sinn Fein
  and vice versa.1

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1998 Assembly Election
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2003 Assembly Election
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2003 Assembly Election
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Belfast City Council Elections

• 1991 census - 43 Catholics
• 1993 election- 38 Nationalists
• 2001 census 47 Catholics
• 2001 election- 46 Nationalists

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Unionist fear of the referendum
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1998 Good Friday Agreement

• CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES, ANNEX A, SECTION 1
• DRAFT CLAUSES/SCHEDULES FOR INCORPORATION IN
  BRITISH LEGISLATION
• 1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern
  Ireland in its entirety remains part of the
  United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so
  without the consent of a majority of the people
  of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the
  purposes of this section ...
• (2) But if the wish expressed by a majority in
  such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease
  to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of
  a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall
  lay before Parliament such proposals to give
  effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her
  Majestys Government in the United Kingdom and
  the Government of Ireland.

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Good Friday Agreement

• SCHEDULE 1
• POLLS FOR THE PURPOSE OF SECTION 1
• 1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the
  holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1
  on a date specified in the order.
• 2. ..the Secretary of State shall do so
  .... if at any time it appears likely to him
  that a majority of those voting would express a
  wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be
  part of the United Kingdom and form part of a
  united Ireland.
• 3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order
  under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after
  the holding of a previous poll under this
  Schedule.

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• TOWARDS A NEW AGREEMENT
• July 2003 (After the census results and before
  the elections)
• Virtually every decision taken by the Assembly in
  Northern Ireland is capable of being vetoed by
  nationalists. The simple democratic majority in
  Northern Ireland counts for nothing but is
  reduced to equal status with the minority.
• However, the one issue for which there is no
  requirement for a cross-community consensus is
  the single most important matter for Northern
  Ireland its constitutional status.

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• Whilst unionists, the majority, could not pass a
  motion banning hare coursing, if nationalists
  ever became the majority, a vote of fifty percent
  plus one could lead Northern Ireland into a
  united Ireland.
• This is a ludicrous arrangement, to which the UUP
  agreed. It is only because there does not appear
  to be the slightest chance of a majority of
  people in Northern Ireland supporting a united
  Ireland that this issue is not of greater
  immediate importance. It does however reflect an
  inept negotiating strategy by the UUP. An
  intelligent negotiator would be guarding for the
  future as well as the present.

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DUP Policy 2004 (after winning the election)
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Demographic Fear at community level
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Demographic Fear at community level

• Fear of cultural decline
• Fear of local territorial contraction
• Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline

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Fear of cultural decline (1)
Source http//www.irishnews.com
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Fear of cultural decline (2)

• Its not just threat from Catholic neighbours.
  They see in the protestant community something
  that they dont understand. It is inherently
  threatening. It involves a lot of paramilitary
  domination and buying into that philosophy of
  life, and a lot of the members of the
  congregation here are not prepared to do that.
• Protestant Minister West Belfast

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Fear of local territorial contraction (1)
Source Orange Standard (Publication of the
Orange Order)
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Fear of local territorial contraction (2)

• weve seen it here. The Catholics have
  completely overtook a lot of what was ours here
  in Suffolk. Ive seen it, and we are such a small
  tiny wee community surrounded by Catholics. You
  cant walk in and out of this estate. Whenever I
  came here at 5 year old, we could walk away up
  the top near Black Mountain and you were safe.
  There was no Catholics there. You cant do that
  now. I dont know where this all came from and
  its got to be breeding
• Protestant Female Resident Suffolk West
  Belfast

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Fear of local territorial contraction (3)
Source Cluan Place Still British the cry is
no surrender The Union Jack Shop
Source Ulster Review, Summer 2003
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Fear of local territorial contraction (4)
Source East Belfast Observer 13 March 2004
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Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline (1)

• This is an increasingly elderly area because
  the Protestant ethos of the younger people is up
  and out. Those who stay around are those who are
  unable to leave economically. Fundamentally
  its because of an individualistic bent within
  Protestantism in general, whereas theres much
  more of a communitarian philosophy within the
  Catholic community...Protestant areas are left
  quite disempowered in terms of human resources.
• Protestant Minister West Belfast

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Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline (2)

• If you were a Catholic, you got it slapped
  round your ears get educated the only way out
  of here is to get educated. Working class
  Protestants on the other hand didnt have to
  worry about getting educated youd get an
  apprenticeshipProtestant working class children
  are loosing out. With the demise of the Shipyard,
  shipbuilding and all thatCatholics got educated
  and went into other spheres of work like law,
  education, community, public sector. Protestants
  didnt go for that cause they seen their area as
  industry. But now the industry has gone down,
  there's a void there.
• Trade Union Representative

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Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline (3)
Source The Independent 3.5.2004
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Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline (4)
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Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline (5)