Observation and modeling systems in the NANOOS region Presented by Antnio Baptista OHSUCMOP, with co

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Observation and modeling systems in the NANOOS
regionPresented by António Baptista
(OHSU-CMOP), with contributions from Alex Kurapov
(OSU), David Jones (APL-UW), et al.
Other PNW estuaries
Oregon coast
Extended Columbia River
Puget Sound
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NANOOS observation network
From Martin et al. 2007
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SATURN/CORIE observation network
http//www.stccmop.org/saturn

• CORIE stations
• SATURN endurance stations
• SATURN pioneer stations
• SATURN land-based remote sensing

• SATURN mobile platforms
• CMOP cruises

1 Slocum glider 2 REMUS-100
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NSF Ocean Observatories Initiative
Components Global ? Regional ? Coastal pioneer
array ? Coastal endurance array
All figures from JOI 2007 (changes have occurred
since)
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OOI regional scale nodes
et al.
All figures from JOI 2007 (changes have occurred
since). Not included Neptune Canada
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OOI Coastal endurance array
Map of the location of the endurance array, off
of the Oregon Endurance array sites (at 25 m, 80
m, and 500 m) complement first node of
RSN Sites have surface element and full water
column profiling capability
et al.
All figures from JOI 2007 (changes have occurred
since)
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Modeling systems

• Oregon coast
• 24/7 forecasts of circulation since 2005
• Process simulations (circulation, ecology)
• Maintained by OSU
• Observations ORCOOS
• Uses science
• Models ROMS

• Other PNW estuaries
• 24/7 forecasts of circulation since 2006
• Tsunami simulations
• Maintained by OHSU
• Observations scattered, minimal
• Uses hazard mitigation, waves (via NOAA),
  education
• Models SELFE

• Extended Columbia River
• 24/7 forecasts of circulation since 1998
• Simulation databases (s. 1999)
• Process simulations
• Network optimization
• Observations SATURN/CORIE
• Uses science, RT cruise support, management
  (fisheries, hydropower, navigation, ),
  education, waves (via NOAA)
• Models SELFE, ELCIRC

• Puget Sound
• 24/7 forecasts of circulation since 2007
• Maintained by APL-UW
• Observations HCDOP, ORCA
• Uses PSMEMC, hypoxia, HABs
• Models POM
• Data avaiable via Opendap

Delayed due to funding reductions operational
NANOOS modeling center
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Oregon Coast
OSU Modeling component of NANOOS (PI Kurapov,
in collaboration with Egbert, Samelson, Allen,
Erofeeva, Koch, Springer, Osborne data support
Barth, Kosro, Levine,Shearman)

• Focus areas
• Development of a real-time forecast model of
  circulation over shelf and coastal transition
  zone (CTZ) off Oregon
• Model verification using near-real time
  observations
• Data assimilation
• RD improve model accuracy, understand
  processes
• Tools to enhance scientific and operational use
  of the model
• Support and leverage
• Real-time application development NOAA-CIOSS,
  NANOOS
• DA methodology ONR
• Process-oriented studies NOAA-GLOBEC, NOPP-ONR,
  NSF-PO

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(model support and development S. Erofeeva /
CIOSS) Daily updates of three-day forecasts, w/
information posted online (daily maps on pink
background for today and next 2 days) System
launched in 06/2005 Major modifications in April
2007, May 2008 (better boundary conditions)
Real-time forecast model of coastal flows off
Oregon ftp//ftp.coas.oregonstate.edu/pub/lana/NC
TZ/SSCforecast.html
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Present model configuration
ROMS, 3-km resolution, 30 vertical layers
(terrain-following coordinates) Domain see on
the right (shown are daily averaged surface
currents and temperature) Atmospheric forcing
mesoscale NOAA-NAM Boundary conditions (BC)
9-km NCOM-CCS (Shulman et al., NRL) When NCOM
forecast not available backup model w/
climatologic BC (monthly mean fields from 4 years
of NCOM outputs) The model reproduces dynamics
both over the shelf and in the CTZ, esp.
energetic current separation off Cape
Blanco Future developments DA, river
influences, tides
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Model verification using OrCOOS time-series
observations
Mean surface currents (May-June 2008)
Mid-shelf mooring (NH10, at 44.65N) and model,
south-north velocity, May-June 2008
Model
HF radar (Kosro)
12 m
25 m
42 m
56 m
70 m
Other comparisons have utilized SSH alongtrack
altimetry, satellite SST
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Process studies and model-data comparisons using
hindcast solutions help to develop strategies for
real-time model improvement and to provide tools
of interest to COOS users
Surface drifter trajectories (Summer 2002 cruise,
J. Barth, vs. nested ROMS application, A. Koch,
GLOBEC)
Some examples
Star release point markers drifter locations
on days 1, 2, , 5 Bathym. contours 100, 200,
and 1000 m (bold)
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Ocean Modeling at APL-UW

• Goal Provide state of the art ocean model data
  and products to the NANOOS Portal in near-real
  time http//www.nanoos.org/data/model/model.php
• Present State of Operations as of July 2008
• 24/7 operational runs of the POM for Puget
  Sound
• Horizontal resolution 360m east-west and 540m
  north-south 14 terrain following vertical
  "sigma" coordinates
• Data available via Opendap server
• Next Steps
• Additional products based on NANOOS needs
• Assimilate new IOOS data and use for verification
• Coordinate model improvements with UW School of
  Oceanography and Pacific Northwest Labs (PNNL)

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SATURN/CORIE simulation databases

• Models SELFE and ELCIRC
• Simulation databases
• DB11 1999-present (2007)
• DB14 1999-present (2006)
• DB16 1999-present (2006)
• DB19 2004 ? 1999-present

• Estuary-plume-shelf
• DB11
• ELCIRC
• DB14
• SELFE
• Estuary
• DB16/19
• SELFE

• Simulation databases
• subject to extensive error analysis
• key to understanding variability

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Predicting change climate in context
DOGAMI
Climate Change (IPCC 2007)
CSZ event
Pre-development
NOAA, UW, PSU
OHSU
Columbia River estuary and plume
Other PNW and West Coast estuaries
Transitional scales
OSU
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SATURN/CORIE forecasts
Pt Sur path (surface )
Data courtesy D. Jay (RISE project)

• 6 different daily forecasts
• DB14-alike (estuary-plume-shelf)
• DB14-alike with WA river inputs
• DB16-alike (estuary)
• Data assimilation-based (estuary)
• Grid refinement in
• North Channel (estuary)
• South Channel (estuary)

• Support research cruises of
• CMOP
• BPA
• RISE
• EcoHAB

RMSE2.64 psu correlation 0.80
? Data X DB-14 alike forecasts
http//www.stccmop.org/corie/modeling_system/forec
asts/pnw
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Forecast skill plume location
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Cruise support tools
http//www.stccmop.org/research/cruise/july2008
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Cruise support tools
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Rapid Deployment Forecasting System
Fraser River
Willapa Bay
Grays Harbor
Yaquina Bay et al.
Tillamook Bay et al.
Siletz Bay et al.
Coos Bay
Extended Columbia River
Humboldt Bay