WCRPCLIVAR perspectives for ETCCDI

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WCRP/CLIVAR perspectives for ETCCDI

• Howard Cattle
• International CLIVAR Project Office,
• National Oceanography Centre,
• Southampton, UK
• (ETCCDI May 2008)

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CLIVAR 1998 ?2013
ACSYS/CliC 19942003/2000 ?
CliC 2000?2015
WGNE WGSF WGCMIPAB WOAP WMP
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WCRP Strategic framework 2005-15Coordinated
Observation and Prediction of the Earth System

• Developed by the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC)
  for WCRP, its governing body
• Reiterates WCRP objectives to determine the
  predictability of climate and the effect of human
  activities on climate
• Seeks to facilitate analysis and prediction of
  Earth System variability and change for practical
  applications of direct relevance, benefit and
  value to society

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Development of Earth System Models (with
IGBP) Seamless prediction (across all
timescales) Maintain/develop sustained observing
system Integration of models and data Developing
links to applications
WCRP Cross Cutting Topics Seasonal
Prediction Monsoons Decadal Prediction Climate
Extremes Anthropogenic climate change Chemistry
and Climate IPY Sea level rise CLIVAR
contributions to all areas
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JSC-28 (Zanzibar, March 2007)

• Reviewed progress with the core projects, WCRP
  panels and working groups and in other relevant
  organizations (e.g WCP, IGBP)
• Reviewed initial progress of and made decisions
  on thecross cutting topics.
• Made decisions on budget allocations WCRP
  finances under severe pressure
• Agreed that the WCRP Core projects (CLIVAR,
  GEWEX, SPARC and CliC) should continue to their
  agreed sunset dates
• Except for ACC, agreed that the projects should
  provide the management focus for the cross cuts
  and appointed JSC oversight groups.

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(No Transcript)
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Outline agenda JSC-29 Arcachon, France, 31
March-4 April 2008

• Welcome, introduction
• Review of WCRP cross cutting activities with
  special session on climate extremes (1 1/2
  days)
• Review of WCRP core projects (3/4 day)
• Review of WCRP WGs and Panels (WGCM, WGNE, WOAP
  ) (0.4 day)
• Review of other projects and activities (ESSP,
  START, THORPEX) (1/4 day)
• Discussion of WCRP post 2013 (3/4 day)
• Executive sessions etc including budgets (1 day)
• Science lectures (1/4 day)

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JSC-29 Climate Extremes Session

• Overall goals for the session
• Determine what steps WCRP can/should take to meet
  user requirements
• Determine what WCRP will do to impact the
  research agenda on extremes.
• 1. Introduction A. Busalacchi
• 2. Stakeholder needs
• a. Stakeholder (CIRUN Workshop) meeting outcomes
  T. Busalacchi
• Re-insurance needs J Slingo
• 3. Work of ETCCDI
• 4. Other WCRP research priorities vis-à-vis
  extremes
• a. CEOP S. Sorooshian
• b. Drought J. Hurrell
• Modelling T. Palmer
• 5. Climate Extremes cross cut - summary of
  proposals to date - H Cattle
• 6. Panel discussion on how to progress research
  on climate extremes and where WCRP should focus
  its efforts.

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Objectives of the cross cut

• Summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of
  climate extremes and develop a common framework.
• Design an intercomparison framework to assess
  models, observations to evaluate changes in
  climate extremes
• Accelerate progress on prediction of climate
  extremes developing capabilities and products
  facilitating practical applications
• Assess and improve the observational and dataset
  framework for study of global extremes
• Determine how extremes are changing/varying and
  why.
• Understand the processes controlling extreme
  climate
• Build capacity in the interpretation of model
  outputs and observational datasets with regard to
  climate extremes
• Develop climate indices for the study and
  monitoring of extremes

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Issues emerging from AGU discussion(participants
Lisa Alexander, Gabi Hegerl, Neville Nicholls,
Simon Tett and Francis Zwiers

• The scale discrepancy between models and
  observations
• Improving model representations of extremes
• Internal consistency of extremes, e.g
• Understanding how modes of variability influence
  extremes
• The dynamical situations leading to extremes
• Extreme extremes (e.g. hurricanes) and small
  scale weather extremes (tornadoes, hail,
  thunderstorms)
• Data quality and availability
• Detectability and predictability of extremes

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Present WCRP extremes foci

• CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI activity
• Development of new indices/develop global indices
  database
• ETCCDI meeting (KNMI, May 2008) to include joint
  workshop with ENSEMBLES (Focus on Extremes in a
  changing climate and workshop on issues of
  scaling - how do we adequately compare observed
  extremes with model output?)
• Proposed near term (decadal cross cut, out to
  2030) climate experiments aims to give guidance
  on the changing risk of extremes
• WGCM International detection and attribution
  group on design of C20 simulations for next IPCC
  are addressing issues related to detection of
  extremes
• GEWEX/CEOP extremes study Canadian drought a
  focus
• US CLIVAR-led activity on US drought (US focus)
• GEWEX/UNESCO global heavy rainfall product at 24
  48 hour accumulation periods, funded by NASA,
  NOAA and UNESCO
• Sea level extremes, sea ice extremes etc Do we
  need to consider ocean extremes?

How can we bring these together into
a coordinated cross-WCRP effort, adding value?
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JSC recommendations, decisions and actions -
climate extremes

• GEWEX and CLIVAR to engage each other to
  participate in forthcoming workshops in climate
  extremes.
• Form a task force on Climate Extremes including
  representation not only from GEWEX and CLIVAR but
  also from CliC and SPARC, IGBP, WWRP(THORPEX) and
  IRDR to determine focus and deliverables for this
  crosscut. Establish links and consider
  cooperation with climate watch.
• Recommend participation of representatives of
  WCRP projects in ETCCDI

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Concluding remarks

• Climate Extremes cross cut still needs to be
  defined it should aim at integrating across WCRP
• ETCCDI views on how this should be done as well
  as reactions to the JSC decisions on the cross
  cut where they impact on ETCCDI are welcomed
• CLIVAR SSG-15 (Sep 2007) requested ETCCDI to
  seek to provide wider range of indices on their
  website to cover both atmosphere and ocean
  indices and to take the lead in coordinating
  CLIVAR indices efforts (including those by CLIVAR
  Panels) with those of OOPC and others as
  appropriate. ETCCDI may wish to consider how
  best to meet this request

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Thank youwww.clivar.org
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CLIVAR SSG-15Geneva, 11-14 September
2007Chaired by Tim Palmer

• Howard Cattle
• ICPO, NOCS
• (ETCCDI, May 2008)

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SSG-15 outline agenda

• Welcome, introduction
• Sponsor and other programme/project input
  (including WMO, OOPC, WCRP Core projects etc)
• Review of key progress and issues from chairs of
  CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups
• Review of JSC cross cutting topics and plenary
  discussion
• Reports from CLIVAR-affiliated projects, national
  contributions and ICPO
• Breakout groups and plenary discussion based
  around CLIVAR Road Map (SSG-14)
• Science lectures (N Gruber and M Beniston)
• Actions and administrative matters

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CLIVAR funding allocations for 2008

• CLIVAR CLIVAR Core 9.2 50,140
• 50 Extremes 1.5 8,175
• 50 IMS (Monsoons) 3.4 18,530
• Decadal prediction 1.1 5,995
• Total 82,840
• JSC allocations are said to be for real
  outcomes
• The CLIVAR Core allocation of CHF50k is some
  25 of that in previous years (CHF400k per
  biennium)
• JPS pursuing further income but allocation tbd by
  JSC
• ACC allocation 48,505k Sea Level 5,995k
  Modelling 18,530k
• Extremes and Monsoon cross cut spends tbd with
  GEWEX (and ?)

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Some possible ways forward

• Option (0) Keep present structure and try to
  continue on with it

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Some options considered for reorganization

• Keep present structure
• Agree to terminate CLIVAR early
• Reduce the number of panels by closing some
• Compress panels into a smaller number (e.g.
  single ocean panel)
• Reorganise around set of CLIVAR Science Themes
• Reorganize around JSC cross cuts

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SSG-15 - outcomesCLIVAR structure and funding

• Agreed not to restructure CLIVAR in response to
  the announced reduction of WCRP funds for 2008
  feeling that that a major organizational change
  would disrupt progress
• Decided to leave the structure as it is out to at
  least the 2010 timeframe at which time the
  project would be restructured to accommodate a
  final analysis and assessment phase1.
• Recognized that WCRP support for meetings will be
  minimal. Panels and Working Groups will be
  required to seek other support for meetings and
  to seek to reduce costs by arranging meeting in
  the margins of Workshops/Conferences.
• Agreed SSG would provide guidance on allotment of
  WCRP funds for meetings

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SSG-15 - outcomesFuture plans

• CLIVAR to seek major presence at the 2009 World
  Climate Conference-3 (J Mitchell, M Visbeck now
  on organising committee M Visbeck chair of
  programme panel)
• SSG co-chairs to press the Chair and vice Chair
  of the JSC summarizing SSG concerns about the
  urgent need to develop a vision for WCRP beyond
  the sunset dates of the current projects
  (possible feed into WCC-3)
• Seek to hold the 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference in
  2011 with a final closure meeting in 2013.
• Engage all CLIVAR panels and working groups in
  providing assessments of achievements and
  identification of major outstanding questions for
  input to the 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference.

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SSG-15 - outcomesOceanObs09

• Fully endorsed the efforts and plans for the
  OceanObs/09 Symposium made suggestions on
  format.
• Asked that CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups work
  with the organizers to ensure that the role(s) of
  CLIVAR science and scientists are fully
  represented.

http//www.oceanobs09.net/
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Thank youwww.clivar.org
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Areas of future research identified in JSC-29
paper

• Continued development of the CEOP extremes
  activity
• Coordination of wider drought research with US
  drought programme
• Encourage activity to understand how modes of
  variability influence extremes and what dynamical
  situations lead to them
• Seek to reduce uncertainties of model simulation
  of extremes (Modelling Summit expects to address
  this)
• Improve methods of interpreting model output,
  reanalyses and satellite products - how do we
  best compare models and data?
• Develop consistent definitions of extremes
  between between modellers and observations/scienti
  sts and practitioners
• Establish regional projects - workshops bringing
  together observationalists, regional modellers
  and planners/decision makers aimed at improving
  the regions ability to reduce risk from
  climate-related disasters