Assessment of Dissemination Practice for Economic and Financial Statistics United Nations Statistics Division/Department of Economic and Social Affairs

1
Assessment of Dissemination Practice for Economic
and Financial StatisticsUnited Nations
Statistics Division/Department of Economic and
Social Affairs

• International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology
  and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic
  Trends,
• 27-29 May, Ottawa, Canada

2
Consultations on the Financial and Economic Crisis

• High Level Forum the Long-term Development the
  SNA, Washington D.C. , 17-18 November
• Official Statistics and the Impact of the Global
  Financial Crisis, New York, 22 February
• High Level Forum on Globalization and Global
  Crisis the role of Official Statistics, New
  York, 23 February
• 40th Session of the Statistical Commission

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Findings from consultations

• Dissemination of high frequency statistics
• availability, timeliness and comparability
• Communication (integrating analytical, policy and
  statistical frameworks statistics and
  commentaries)
• Institutional environment
• user consultation (policy departments, academia,
  corporate sector)
• collaboration between Statistical Offices and
  Central Banks, Ministry of Finance, etc.

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Stylized Facts of the Financial and Economic
Crisis

• Size (global affecting developed, emerging and
  developing countries)
• common data template of core set of high
  frequency statistics based on inventory of
  available high frequency statistics
• Speed (one year cycle, 2007-8)
• accelerated dissemination where possible
• Transmission mechanism (through products, new
  units, etc.)
• closing data gaps Sectoral and cross border
  exposures to risk and contagion

5
Scope of data template for economic and financial
statistics

• High frequency statistics and their accelerated
  first estimates
• Accelerated production and release of a high
  frequency statistics as a first estimate early
  after the end of the reference period
• Theoretical sound, based on normative standards
• Time series available
• Direct observations (no forecasting)
• Predictive power to detect turning points
• Signal vulnerabilities and exposures
• Link between the real and financial economy

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Assessment of Availability and Timeliness

• Macroeconomic growth and stability
• Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments
• Market conditions

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Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont)
Annex I

• Availability by 12 Data Categories
• Macroeconomic growth and stability (4)
• National accounts,
• Production and turnover
• Prices
• Labor

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Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont)

• Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments (5)
• External sector
• Financial sector
• Government sector
• Household sector
• Non-financial sector

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Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont)

• Market conditions (2)
• Financial market
• Real estate market
• Economic Sentiments (1)
• Consumer and business confidence, composite
  business cycle indicators (LCI, CCI, LCI)

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Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont)

• Set 1 Quarterly National Accounts
• Quarterly National Accounts First GDP estimate
• Quarterly National Accounts GDP release with
  more breakdowns (as relevant by expenditures,
  production by economic activities and income
  components
• Quarterly National Accounts Sector accounts (as
  relevant, household, corporations, general
  government sectors)

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Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont)

• For each of the 12 data categories
• Core set of high frequency statistics
• Supplementary set of high frequency statistics,
  if any
• Periodicity and timeliness (recommended/
  encouraged)

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Elements of assessment of the dissemination
dimensions

• 1. Availability (since when month/year)
• 2. Periodicity (monthly, quarterly)
• 3. Timeliness (T days, number of days after the
  reference period T)
• 4. Coverage ( of total)
• 5. Target audience (general public, experimental
  (for research only), internal administrative use
  only, international (rating) agencies only

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Elements of assessment of the dissemination
dimensions (cont.)

• 6. Advance release calendar (available, not
  available)
• 7. Meta data (available, not available)
• 8. Adjustments (seasonal adjustment, calendar-day
  adjustment)
• 9. Compiling agency (national statistical
  institute, central bank, ministry of finance,
  other)
• 10. Improvements (improved business register
  and/or sample design new basic statistics, new
  extrapolation and related techniques, integration
  of high frequency statistics, IT innovations,
  institutional collaboration, other)

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Expected outcome from break-out sessions

• Data template of core (and supplementary) set of
  high frequency statistics by 12 data categories
  based on the assessment of
• a current inventory of country dissemination
  practices of high frequency statistics and their
  first estimates
• identification of data gaps
• agreed elements of assessment

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Expected outcome from breakout session (cont)

• Proposal for actions and initiatives in the near
  term
• Follow-up seminar based on agreed data template
  of core set of high frequency statistics and the
  accelerated first estimates
• Comparability
• Policy and analytical application of data
  template
• Communication

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Expected outcome from breakout session (cont)

• Proposal for actions and initiatives in the short
  term
• at national level - introducing a common national
  dissemination platform, harmonizing the meta data
  descriptions, aligning the release calendars and
  revision practices, sharing IT software tools,
  etc. and
• at international level - undertaking a global
  assessment on high frequency statistics based on
  agreed data template, tracking dissemination
  practices, etc.)

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Expected outcome from breakout session (cont)

• Proposals for actions and initiatives in the
  medium term
• at national level - a coordinated implementation
  program based on analysis of strengths and
  weaknesses.
• at international level a coordinated
  implementation program and common research agenda