How Andrew Bartholomew was found: oceanography in action.

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How Andrew Bartholomew was foundoceanography in
action.

• A status report on the BlueLink Regional Analysis
• David Griffin

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Bluelink Regional Analysis credits

• RA staff Madeleine Cahill, Jeff Dunn, Jim
  Mansbridge, Chris Rathbone, Ken Ridgway
• also Neil White, Ian Barton, Peter Turner, Glen
  Smith, Ken Suber, Susan Wijffels, Ann Gronell,
  Helen Phillips, Peter Campbell
• my predecessorsJohn Wilkin, Scott Condie
• BlueLink PI Andreas Schiller
• externals BoM, RAN, WASTAC, WA DOT, ACRES, MHL,
  QldEPA, NASA, NOAA, ESA, AOML

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Events of 23-24 October 2004

• Mayday call at 215pm 23 Oct man overboard
  120nm east of Moreton Island

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Events of 23-24 October 2004

• Mayday call at 215pm 23 Oct man overboard
  120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by
  sundown

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Events of 23-24 October 2004

• Mayday call at 215pm 23 Oct man overboard
  120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by
  sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew
  Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after
  18h at sea, in centre of search area

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Events of 23-24 October 2004

• Mayday call at 215pm 23 Oct man overboard
  120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by
  sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew
  Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after
  18h at sea, in centre of search area
• Search area delineated using latest sea level map
  (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined
  with wind-drift.

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Events of 23-24 October 2004

• Mayday call at 215pm 23 Oct man overboard
  120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by
  sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew
  Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after
  18h at sea, in centre of search area
• Search area delineated using latest sea level map
  (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined
  with wind-drift.
• The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by
  altimetry?

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Events of 23-24 October 2004

• Mayday call at 215pm 23 Oct man overboard
  120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by
  sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew
  Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after
  18h at sea, in centre of search area
• Search area delineated using latest sea level map
  (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined
  with wind-drift.
• The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by
  altimetry?
• Unfortunately, the details tell a different story

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AMSAs SARTRAK screen for 24 Oct
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How come the search was in the right place?

• At the time of the rescue, it was thought
• Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket
• The current was to the SE

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How come the search was in the right place?

• At the time of the rescue, it was thought
• Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket
• The current was to the SE
• Subsequently, we learnt that
• he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW
  winds
• The current was near zero

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How come the search was in the right place?

• At the time of the rescue, it was thought
• Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket
• The current was to the SE
• Subsequently, we learnt that
• he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW
  winds
• The current was near zero
• So it appears we got it right for the wrong
  reasons

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Lesson (no surprise, really)

• The lag, presently about 4 days, between the
  latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is
  a problem.

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Lesson (no surprise, really)

• The lag, presently about 4 days, between the
  latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is
  a problem.
• In this case, the overnight change in the
  altimetric velocity estimate equalled the rms
  variability at that point.

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solutions

• Reduce the latency of the analysed map
• Needs more altimeters
• in fact the number is likely to reduce for the
  foreseeable future

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solutions

• Reduce the latency of the analysed map
• Needs more altimeters
• in fact the number is likely to reduce for the
  foreseeable future
• Use other types of ocean data
• SST observations can be made synoptically
• Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion
• For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as
  the most promising technology

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solutions

• Reduce the latency of the analysed map
• Needs more altimeters
• in fact the number is likely to reduce for the
  foreseeable future
• Use other types of ocean data
• SST observations can be made synoptically
• Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion
• For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as
  the most promising technology
• Use physics to turn recent observations into
  ocean nowcasts (and short-term forecasts)
• This is what the rest of Bluelink is all about

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Let me backup.

• 2003-2004 was the golden age of altimetry, with
  four altimeters flying.

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Let me backup.

• 2003-2004 was the golden age of altimetry, with
  four altimeters flying.
• Unless the wide-swath is embarked on Jason-2 in
  2008, this data density will not be reached again
  for many years.

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Conclusions

• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying,
  and Argo well underway, ocean observation has
  never been better.

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Conclusions

• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying,
  and Argo well underway, ocean observation has
  never been better.
• But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe
  to fall over the side.

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Conclusions

• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying,
  and Argo well underway, ocean observation has
  never been better.
• But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe
  to fall over the side.
• BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims
  to show that operational oceanography is
  feasible, and worthwhile

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Conclusions

• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying,
  and Argo well underway, ocean observation has
  never been better.
• But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe
  to fall over the side.
• BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims
  to show that operational oceanography is
  feasible, and worthwhile
• The Regional Analysis is an early product of
  Bluelink that
• Gives potential users a taste of whats to come
• Provides a benchmark for the model to beat

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Final word

• Use it or lose it

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Final word

• Use it or lose it
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up
  with the rapid advances in ocean observation and
  modelling.

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Final word

• Use it or lose it
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up
  with the rapid advances in ocean observation and
  modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia
  can play an important role in ensuring that
  oceanography survives the risky transition from
  the research to operational environments

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Final word

• Use it or lose it
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up
  with the rapid advances in ocean observation and
  modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia
  can play an important role in ensuring that
  oceanography survives the risky transition from
  the research to operational environments
• We need to foster use of ocean information in
  order to demonstrate societal benefit

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Final word

• Use it or lose it
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up
  with the rapid advances in ocean observation and
  modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia
  can play an important role in ensuring that
  oceanography survives the risky transition from
  the research to operational environments
• We need to foster use of ocean information in
  order to demonstrate societal benefit
• Dissemination of data is becoming really easy.

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Final word

• Use it or lose it
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up
  with the rapid advances in ocean observation and
  modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia
  can play an important role in ensuring that
  oceanography survives the risky transition from
  the research to operational environments
• We need to foster use of ocean information in
  order to demonstrate societal benefit
• Dissemination of data is becoming really easy.
• Legal and commercial considerations are not.

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Thank you