National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne

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National Unified Operational Prediction
Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMFSteven
Payne

• December 17, 2008

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Potential Benefits

• A National System to focus on National Needs
• Accelerated improvement of a National Weather
  Operational Prediction Capability
• Forecast Accuracy
• Quantified Forecast uncertainty
• Improved agency capability to drive downstream
  applications
• Increased efficiency through use of shared
  resources
• Better operational backup
• Enhanced research coordination
• Response to GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG
  recommendations

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NUOPC Update

• 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of
  complementary operational NWP
• 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives
  selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus
  area
• 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project
  plan for NUOPC
• Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007
• Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US
  for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy
  N84)
• 2008 Appointed Project Manager
• Executing NUOPC Phase I
• ESG approved interim committee chairmen
• Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008
• Initiated interim committee process May, 2008

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NUOPC Implementation Schedule
FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015
Prelim Phase I
Implementation Phase II
Beta Test Phase III
FOC
IOC-2
IOC-1
MGMT REPORTG
MOA
Quarterly Updates to Principals
STAFFING
Full Staff
TT PM, TEMPS
CODE CONV.
INIT.STANDARDS
SOFTWARE CONVERSION
MAINTAIN
OPERATIONS
ENS OPS TEST
CONOPS, COMMS, IA
FOC
PROTOTYPE OPS
STANDARDS PARTICIPATION
OUTREACH
Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda
DTC/VTC
DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS
EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP
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NUOPC Management Structure
Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis
Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove
NOAA (Administrator) VADM Lautenbacher
Executive Steering Group
Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) Col John Murphy (AFWA)
Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) RDML David Titley
(CNMOC)
Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)
Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove LCDR
Kurt Zegowitz
NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer Deputy
Project Manager - TBD
John Zapotocny Brian Moore
Kim Curry Steve Payne
Joel Cline Jeremy Potter
Agency Liaisons
NUOPC Staff Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William
OConnor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley
Unified Ensemble Operations Mike Clancy
Technology Transition Process Marc Hidalgo
Interim Committees
Common Model Architecture Scott Sandgathe
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Expectations

• NUOPC is an agreement between the three
  operational production facilities to accelerate
  technological advances and improve efficiency
  through collaboration.
• Every attempt should be made to avoid significant
  disruption of the operational centers or to
  impede developmental headway.
• A major objective of NUOPC is to entrain the
  broader research and development community into
  supporting research critical to the success of
  the operational centers.

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Interim Committees

• Three designated committees
• Common Model Architecture Committee
• Technical Transition Process Committee
• Unified Ensemble Operations Committee
• Potential additional panels include Technical
  Transition and Information Assurance.
• Interim Committees will be split into attending
  members and review members in order to reduce
  travel and impact on members and also address
  FACA concerns.
• Interim committees only operate during Phase I.
  Permanent committees chartered in Phase II to
  maintain, evolve standards, monitor compliance.

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Committee Membership

• Chairman from NUOPC staff or operational center
• Primary input from operational centers, agency
  RD activities
• Broad community participation via coordination
  and review membership
• Working level knowledge but able to represent
  constituency
• NUOPC staff responsible for meeting minutes,
  draft reports, schedule

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Interim Committee Membership
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Common Model Architecture Committee

• Task Develop common architecture (ESMF) and
  coding standards as necessary to accelerate
  transition of research and avoid unnecessary
  duplication of effort.
• Agree to ESMF architecture, degree and detail of
  implementation.
• Agree to additional software or hardware
  standards required to promote interoperability.
• Minimize disruption to operational centers and
  existing development efforts.
• Estimate cost and time to implement.

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Committee Issues - CMA

• Standard Model Architecture - ESMF
• How deep to implement?
• How to resolve align present NRL/EMC approaches
• NASA MAPL and European OASIS?
• Standard model structure
• Unified coding standards (i,j,k, etc.)
• Exchangeable model technology at component level
• Standard ensemble prediction infrastructure
• Standard I/O interfaces
• Standard model metadata
• Cost time to implement

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Technology Transition Process Committee

• Task Align agency transition processes to
  streamline certification of new technology and
  reduce duplicative recertification among the
  Tri-Agencies.
• Define common operational needs and translate to
  common requirements
• Develop a common research agenda and direction
• Develop the VTC/DTC/VSP CONOPS
• Funding, support, security, etc.
• Align agency processes to transition new
  technology to operations

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Committee Issues - TTP

• DTC/VTC/VSP
• At center, at other site, multiple locations,
  virtual, what support, common metrics, etc., etc.
• Common research agenda (requirements, agenda,
  investment)
• How do we get requirements from the three
  agencies? How to we merge the list? How do we
  turn requirements into a research agenda? How do
  we get resource sponsors to sign up to fund
  agenda?
• Aligned transition process
• What is important to align? How will it improve
  life?
• Info assurance
• How do we guarantee code is not corrupt?
• How do we meet agency code release requirements
  and still give broad community access?
• Cost time to implement

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Unified Ensemble Operations Committee

• Task Develop a unified ensemble operational
  concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and
  exchange of ensemble products.
• Identify unified ensemble operations requirements
  including
• Standard output format
• Ensemble configuration
• Product delivery schedule
• Process for assembly and dissemination
• Common post processing, if appropriate
• Network security
• Coordinated software update cycle
• Data archival processes (who, what, where, how)
• Communications, bandwidth and hardware
  acquisition
• Estimate cost and time to implement

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Committee Goals

• Minimize operational center disruption
• Achieve common architecture objectives while
  sustaining developmental headway
• Achieve full stakeholder support
• Develop well-defined standards that will focus
  research community participation and accelerate
  development
• Develop standards and methodology that can evolve
  with changing technology
• Operational centers involved up front (primary
  stakeholders)

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Schedule Deliverables

• Membership approved June-July 2008.
• Initial meetings summer 2008
• Draft final report for external coordination
  March 2009.
• Revised committee reports for Agency coordination
  May 2009.
• Internal Agency approval June 2009.
• ESG Approval August 2009.

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Launching NUOPC Phase I
1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09
2FY09 3FY09 4FY09
Phase I Tasks
Nominate
Establish Committees
Apr 08
IOC-1
Committee Tasks
Begin Phase II Implementation
Sep 09
PM Staff Review
Review committees progress
Apr 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 08
Interagency Review Coord
Coord
Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS
PM Staff integrate Committee task results
Committee Reports to PM Staff
Decision Brief to Principals Staff
ESG Approval
Draft Standards Reports