Impact of different duration thresholds of residence on migration statistics

1
Impact of different duration thresholds of
residence on migration statistics

• Patrick Corr
• Director, Demography
• www.abs.gov.au
• Item 6 - WP18
• Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration
  Statistics,
• Edinburgh, Scotland, 20-22 November 2006

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Australia - Key Facts

• 7.7 million square km in area
• 59,700 km of coastline, no land borders
• Island state of 20.6 million people (heavily
  urbanised)
• Population growth rate 1.3 per annum
• Half of annual growth due to net overseas
  migration (NOM)
• Government Migration (skilled and family reunion)
  and Humanitarian Programs
• Free movement of Australian and New Zealand
  citizens
• Strong temporary visitor programs (working
  holiday makers, students, business, tourists,
  etc.)
• Over 21 million border crossings every year
• Some are multiple movements of individual
  travelers
• Legislation requires timely quarterly population
  estimates

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Migration measurement

• Source incoming and outgoing passenger cards
• Linked to data from passport scans at border and
  visa applications before arrival
• Overseas arrivals and departures categorised into
• Permanent arrivals
• Permanent departures
• Visitors arriving on a temporary basis
• Residents departing on a temporary basis
• Visitors departing
• Residents arriving
• Duration in years, months and days
• Long-term (12 months or more) and
• Short-term (lt 12 months)

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International movements, 2005
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International movements, 2005
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Evolution of Net Overseas Migration (NOM)
Measurement
Method
Time Frame

NOM A - D
Before 1980
NOM PLTA PLTD
1981
NOM PLTA PLTD CJ
1982 onwards
CJ Migration category jumping to allow for
changes between categories
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What if duration of stay/absent was not required

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Focus in on net permanent and long-term migration

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Focus in on long-term migration, annual totals
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Why ?

• July 1998, card redesign changed method for
  measuring ACTUAL duration
• stay in Australia for visitors, and
• absence from Australia for residents.
• Before July 1998 -
• travellers were asked to report duration of
  stay/absence on completion of journey
• After July 1998 -
• duration derived by matching incoming and
  outgoing movement records using a
  purpose-specific personal identification number.
• Short breaks interrupt longer stays/absences

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Consequences - examples

• long-term visitors to Australia who leave for
  short-term absences overseas (e.g. Malaysian
  university student studying in Australia for 4
  years)
• Reported intention to stay in Australia for 12
  months or more - a long-term visitor arriving
• Student leaves Australia for academic vacations
• Could be classified as a visitor departing after
  short-term stay in Australia by reference back to
  most recent border movement.
• No question on whether intends to return to
  Australia
• Multiple long-term arrivals during 4 year stay in
  Australia
• Multiple short-term departures during stay in
  Australia
• Can apply for permanent residence after
  completing course.

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Consequences - examples

• Australian resident overseas long-term (e.g.
  working in Roxburghe Hotel using UK passport and
  working rights on basis of parents British
  origin)
• Reports long-term absence on departing Australia
  each time
• Taxation minimisation incentive to formally
  demonstrate Im leaving Australia for 2 year or
  more.
• Returns for Christmas/New Year vacation each year
  with family/friends in Australia summer vitamin
  D generation sessions at beach
• Never out of Australia for 12 months continuously
• long-term departure on exit
• Returning resident away for short-term on
  arrival.

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Improved ABS method

• Abandon continuity in measuring 12 months stay
  in Australia/ absence from Australia
• Accumulate stay/absence over sequential periods
• Link up individual travel movements into a
  complete travel history rather than pairs of
  border crossings to derive duration
• Accumulate sequential border movements over 16
  month period
• Clean data and impute for implausible movements
• Two or more arrivals without a departure
• Two or more departures without an arrival

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Improved ABS method (2)

• Resolves multiple movements within year
• Categorise traveller to duration of stay in
  Australia over next 16 months after reference
  quarter
• 121 days or less (less than 4 months),
• 122 to 264 days (four months to less than 12
  months),
• 365 days or more (12 months or more).
• Consider whether was included in the Australian
  population at beginning of quarter
• Based on duration of subsequent stay in Australia
  (12/16) -
• People added to population, subtracted from
  population or no change (in or out of
  population).

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Results Permanent Migration March Quarter
2004
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Residents overseas long-term, March Quarter 2004
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Visitors staying long-term, March Quarter 2004
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Residents overseas short-term, March Quarter 2004
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Visitors staying short-term, March Quarter 2004
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Key issues for consideration

• How duration of stay/absence is measured -
• Stated intention at beginning of journey
• Stated actual at end of journey
• Derived actual based by record linking
• Should duration for determining
  long-term/short-term be
• The interval between two border movements, or
• A period of actual presence (residence)
  accumulated over a longer period of time
• What threshold to use for population estimate
  purposes.