alimentazione e agricoltura nelle relazioni internazionali: Sfide

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alimentazione e agricoltura nelle relazioni
internazionali Sfide

• Marcela Villarreal, Ph.D.
• FAO
• Marzo 6 6006

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agriculture and food in international relations
DIMENSIONS

• -economic
• trade
• subsidies
• -political
• -demographic
• population growth
• migration
• -knowledge
• technology
• research

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agriculture and food in international relations
CHALLENGES

• avian flu, hiv/aids other transboundary diseases
• globalisation
• labor surplus and shortages
• biotechnology (GMO)
• conflicts and natural disasters

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food and agriculture international frameworks

• World Food Summit fyl
• Millennium Development Goals
• MDG 1 reducing poverty and hunger

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Mortalità infantile causate da malattie infettive
per fame e malnutrizione
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food security situation
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Trends in prevalence of stunting (chronic
malnutrition lt5)


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Trends in numbers of stunted children (lt5)
millions
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Population, cereal production growth
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Trends in per capita cereal production, 1961-2004
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agricultural research

• crop germplasm improvement
• productivity gains
• 1 per annum wheat
• 0.5-0.8 per annum- rice, maize, sorghum, millet
• food prices would have been 35-65 higher
• average caloric availability would have been
  11-13 lower globally
• food productivity gains contributed to GDP per
  capita rises and poverty reduction

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Global trends population, per capita GDP (1950
100)
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Population, GDP per capita growth 1950-05
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hiv/aids, avian flu and the coconut beetle
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Spread of HIV 1984 -1999
Estimated percentage of adults (1549) infected
with HIV
20.0 39.0 10.0 20.0 5.0 10.0 1.0
5.0 0.0 1.0 not in region
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HIV/AIDS and Food Security

• Loss of agricultural labour
• Impoverishment of households
• Loss of knowledge
• Formal
• Informal
• Undermines social asset base

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Two Zones of Animal Diseases e.g. Avian Influenza
and Plant Pests e.g. Coconut Beetles
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Damage and larvae of Coconut Leaf Beetle in Xepon
District
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Spread of Coconut Beetle from May to September
2004 Route 9
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Border Crossings and HIV/AIDS in Southeast Asia
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outlook for the future

• decreased demand for food
• slower population growth rate
• rising proportion in high levels of food
  consumption
• enough land, soil, water and potential for
  increases in yields, albeit slower
• growth in incomes
• increased demand for meat, changes in dietary
  habits
• decreased effective demand due to HIV/AIDS

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outlook

• goal of halving the number of hungry unlikely
• continued population growth Africa
• economic growth not fast enough
• political will to address economic and political
  issues essential

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GRAZIE DELL ATTENZIONE