Climate Change

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Climate Change Public HealthNJDEP Clean Air
Council 2009
Leonard Bielory, M.D. Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air
Council Professor Medicine, Pediatrics,
Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences UMDNJ - New
Jersey Medical School
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2008 Melting Icebergs
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But the polar bear might not be the only
threatened species
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Climate change and air pollution

• Climate change and air pollution have, to a large
  extent, a common cause emissions from fossil
  fuel burning.
• The combustion of fossil fuel leads to emissions
  of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (CO2, methane, nitrous
  oxide)
• GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, warming its
  lower layers and causing knock-on effects in the
  Earth System
• Increase temperature has a direct effect on air
  pollutant in particular O3 formation

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Climate Change
Source geology.com
Source NASA
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Global change factors
Earths Average Surface Temp (OC)
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1900
2100
2000
2050
1950
1860
Year
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WHO estimated mortality (per million people)
attributable to climate change by the year 2000
Nature 2005438310-317.
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Health Effects of Climate Change
Heat Stress Cardiorespiratory
failure Asthma, COPD, Allergies Dengue,
Malaria Encephalitis, Hantavirus Rift Valley
Fever Cholera, Campylobacter Cyclospora,
Cryptosporidiosis Leptospirosis Diarrhea,
malnutrition Toxic Red Tides Overcrowding,
Forced Migration Infectious diseases Human
Conflicts
Urban Heat Island Effect Air Pollution
Aeroallergens Vector-borne Diseases Water-borne
Diseases Water resources food supply Mental
Health Environmental Refugees
CLIMATE CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1 Sea level Rise 2 Hydrologic
Extremes
1 3C by yr. 2100 2 40 cm IPCC
estimates
Patz, 1998
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Climate Change and Respiratory Health

• Increased number of deaths and acute morbidity
  due to heat waves
• Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory events
  due to higher concentrations of ground level of
  O3
• Change in frequency of respiratory diseases from
  transboundary long-range air pollution (e.g
  related to fires, aerosols)
• Altered spatial and temporal distribution of
  allergens and some infectious disease vectors

Source Environment and human Health Committee of
the European Respiratory Society ( ERS) Climate
change and respiratory disease a position
statement
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Climate Change Allergic Airway Disease
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Risk of dying on days with temperature of 30C
(lag 0-1) vs of 20 C in people age 65
4 italians cities 1997-2004
Stafoggia M, 2008
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• The severity and duration of summertime
  regional air pollution episodes are projected to
  increase in the Northeast and Midwest US by
  2045-2052 due to climate-change-induced decreases
  in the frequency of surface cyclones. (IPCC,
  2007)
• By 2050, warming alone may increase by 68 the
  number of Red Ozone Alert days across the Eastern
  US. (IPCC, 2007 -Bell 2006

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Percentage change in daily mortality for a 10 ppb
increase in ozone
95 US communities 1987-2000 Bell ML, 2004
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Percentage change in respiratory hospital
admissions and air pollution across 36 US cities
1996-1999
Change per 5 ppb O3 ( 8-h) and 10 ug/m3 PM10
(24-h)
Medina-Ramon M, 2006
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Ozone effect increase () from 1990 to 2050 in
cause specific hospital admission and total
mortality
Hospital admissions
Mortality
50 eastern US cities, summer months Bell ML, 2007
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Potential human health benefits from reductions
in ozone and particulate matter air pollution
associated with implementing GHG mitigation
measures (2001-2020) (Source Cifuentes et al.
2001)
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Is this the solution?
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Climate Change Public HealthNJDEP Clean Air
Council 2009
Improving Air Quality Reducing Climate Change
Leonard Bielory, M.D. Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air
Council Professor Medicine, Pediatrics,
Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences UMDNJ - New
Jersey Medical School