Using Open Source Data to Track Foreign Groups that Target the United States

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Using Open Source Data to Track Foreign Groups
that Target the United States

• Gary LaFree
• Director, START Center, Maryland
• DNI Open Source Conference
• September 11, 2008

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DHS Centers of Excellence Program
The ST Directorate is developing a robust,
results-oriented network of Homeland Security
Centers of Excellence (COEs) to leverage the
independent thinking and ground-breaking
capabilities of the Nations colleges and
universities.  The COEs are conducting
multidisciplinary research and education, each
focused on an area critical to homeland
security. DHS ST Under Secretary Jay M.
Cohen 
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START Consortium
Abroad
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The Global Terrorism DataBase (GTD)

• GTD contains 85,000 incidents, with up to 128
  data fields per incident more than 6,000,000
  data points.
• Electronic Databases
• OpenSource.gov
• Lexis-Nexis
• On-line databases and websites
• Newspapers, books and journal articles
• Largest, most comprehensive data base on
  terrorist attacks ever collected.
• Includes domestic terrorism cases since 1970.

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Sources for Anti-US Groups

• US State Departments Bureau of Diplomatic
  Securitys annual report, Political Violence
  against Americans.
• US Office of the Historian, Bureau of Public
  Affairs.
• Literature review since 2001

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52 Anti-US Terrorist Groups, 1970-2004

• al Qaedabroadest operations
• Black September in 3 countries Jordan, Lebanon
  and Israel/Palestine.
• Abu Nidal Organization, al-Gamaat al-Islamiyya,
  the Eritrean Liberation Front, and the Popular
  Front for the Liberation of Palestine--operations
  in two countries
• Israel/Palestine--five groups
• Colombia, Philippines, and Pakistan--four groups
  each

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One

• HAVE THE NUMBER OF ANTI-U.S. ATTACKS AND
  FATALITIES INCREASED OVER TIME?

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Total Attacks and Fatal Attacks Against U.S.
Targets of52 Anti-American Terrorist Groups from
1970 to 2004
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Two

• HAVE THE NUMBER OF ANTI-U.S. ATTACKS AND
  FATALITIES INCREASED OVER TIME?

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Total Attacks and Fatal Attacks against Non-U.S.
Targets for52 Anti-American Terrorist Groups,
1970-2004
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Three

• TO WHAT EXTENT DO ANTI-U.S. GROUPS STRIKE
  NON-U.S. TARGETS?

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Total Number of Attacks and Fatalities for U.S.
and Non-U.S. Targets, 1970-2004
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Four

• TO WHAT EXTENT DO ANTI-U.S. GROUPS STRIKE
  TRANSNATIONAL TARGETS?

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Total Number of Attacks and Fatalities for U.S.
and Non-U.S. Targets, 1970-2004
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Five

• IS THE RATIO OF U.S. TO NON-U.S. ATTACKS AND
  FATALITIES CHANGING OVER TIME?

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Ratio of U.S. and Non-U.S. Attacks and Fatal
Attacks from 1970 to 2004
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Six

• DO U.S. ATTACKS BY ANTI-U.S. GROUPS FIT INTO
  CLEAR TRAJECTORIES OVER TIME?

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Trajectories of Attacks on United States of 52
Anti-U.S. Terrorist Groups, 1970-2004
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Seven

• DO NON-U.S. ATTACKS BY ANTI-U.S. GROUPS FIT INTO
  CLEAR TRAJECTORIES OVER TIME?

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Trajectories of Non-U.S. Attacks of 52 Anti-U.S.
Terrorist Groups, 1970-2004
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Eight

• HOW CLOSELY RELATED ARE THE U.S. AND NON-U.S.
  ATTACK TRAJECTORIES?

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A Comparison of U.S. and Non-U.S. Terrorist Group
Trajectories
Note Only 44 of the 52 terrorist groups
attacked both US and non-US targets from 1970 to
2004.
Research team LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw
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Implications

• Proximity to targets of terrorism is critical.
• Distant attacks are more lethal.
• Attack trajectories exhibit wave-like boom and
  bust cycles.
• However, nearly half of these anti-US groups
  exhibited episodic trajectories.
• Need to stress to local governments that
  combating groups that are anti-U.S. has even more
  direct benefit for them than for the United
  States.

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Thank you Gary LaFree Director, START
Center University of Maryland College Park,
MD [phone] glafree_at_start.umd.edu
www.start.umd.edu