John Woods, Imperial College London

1

• John Woods, Imperial College London

GOOS Regional Forum GRAND kick-off meeting
Fiji 7-9 February 2004
2
GRAND Work Package 3

• Working with the GOOS regions to develop a GOOS
  Regional Strategy
  
• Focus on improving local marine services by
  exploiting the Global Ocean Observing System
  
• The next five years

3
Some initial ideas

• Prediction
• Technology
• Training
• Publications
• Workshops

4
Prediction

• Nowcasting
• Forecasting
• What-if? Prediction

5
Nowcasting

• Up to one week ahead
• Limited by the predictability of the weather
• Primary applications
• Safety at sea
• Movement of existing pollution
• Oils slicks, etc.
• European initiatives
• MerSea
• MFSTEP

6
Nowcasting

• Up to one week ahead
• Limited by the predictability of the weather
• Primary applications
• Safety at sea
• Movement of existing pollution
• Oils slicks, toxic blooms, etc.
• European initiatives
• MerSea
• MFSTEP

7
Nowcasting

• Up to one week ahead
• Limited by the predictability of the weather
• Primary applications
• Safety at sea
• Movement of existing pollution
• Oils slicks, etc.
• European initiatives
• MerSea
• MFSTEP

8
Forecasting

• Beyond one week ahead
• Atmospheric forcing without the phase of weather
  systems
  
• Seasonal and inter-annual variation
• El Niño, Monsoon, North Atlantic Oscillation,
  etc.
  
• Primary applications
• Planning for the consequences of climate change
• Sea level
• Fisheries
• European initiatives
• Hadley Centre

9
Forecasting

• Beyond one week ahead
• Atmospheric forcing without the phase of weather
  systems
  
• Seasonal and inter-annual variation
• El Niño, Monsoon, North Atlantic Oscillation,
  etc.
  
• Primary applications
• Planning for the consequences of climate change
• Sea level
• Fisheries
• European initiatives
• Hadley Centre

10
Forecasting

• Beyond one week ahead
• Atmospheric forcing without the phase of weather
  systems
  
• Seasonal and inter-annual variation
• El Niño, Monsoon, North Atlantic Oscillation,
  etc.
  
• Primary applications
• Planning for the consequences of climate change
• Sea level
• Fisheries
• European initiatives
• Hadley Centre

11
What-if? Prediction

• Scenario
• For a local environment problem
• For possible solutions
• Overcome limits to predictability of the weather
  
  
• Use re-analysis archives
• Applications
• Planning how best to deal with possible
  environmental threats
  
• European initiatives
• ECMWF re-analysis of global atmosphere since 1956
  (ERA40)
  
• Virtual Ecology Workbench

12
What-if? Prediction

• Scenario
• For a local environment problem
• For possible solutions
• Overcome limits to predictability of the weather
  
  
• Use re-analysis archives
• Applications
• Planning how best to deal with possible
  environmental threats
  
• European initiatives
• ECMWF re-analysis of global atmosphere since 1956
  (ERA40)
  
• Virtual Ecology Workbench

13
What-if? Prediction

• Scenario
• For a local environment problem
• For possible solutions
• Overcome limits to predictability of the weather
  
  
• Use re-analysis archives
• Applications
• Planning how best to deal with possible
  environmental threats
  
• Detecting unexpected secondary effects
• European initiatives
• ECMWF re-analysis of global atmosphere since 1956
  (ERA40)
  
• Virtual Ecology Workbench

14
What-if? Prediction

• Scenario
• For a local environment problem
• For possible solutions
• Overcome limits to predictability of the weather
  
  
• Use re-analysis archives
• Applications
• Planning how best to deal with possible
  environmental threats
  
• Detecting unexpected secondary effects
• European initiatives
• ECMWF re-analysis of global atmosphere since 1956
  (ERA40)
  
• Virtual Ecology Workbench

15
Technology challenge

• Improve local marine services by exploiting the
  Global Ocean Observing System
  
• Key issues
• Effectively linking
• Global observations and models
• Coastal observations and models
• What-if? Prediction
• needs rapid re-configuration of model and
  scenario

16
Technology challenge

• Improve local marine services by exploiting the
  Global Ocean Observing System
  
• Key issues
• Effectively linking
• Global observations and models
• Coastal observations and models
• What-if? Prediction
• needs rapid re-configuration of model and
  scenario

17
Technology challenge

• Improve local marine services by exploiting the
  Global Ocean Observing System
  
• Key issues
• Effectively linking
• Global observations and models
• Coastal observations and models
• What-if? Prediction
• needs rapid re-configuration of model and
  scenario

18
Technology challenge

• Improve local marine services by exploiting the
  Global Ocean Observing System
  
• Key issues
• Effectively linking
• Global observations and models
• Coastal observations and models
• What-if? Prediction
• needs rapid re-configuration of model and
  scenario

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Technology solutions

• Linking Global and Coastal dynamics
• 21st century ocean model (ICL and CNR)
• Seamless from estuary to global
• Adaptive, unstructured mesh
• Non-hydrostatic, primitive-equation dynamics
• Individual-based biology using Lagrangian
  Ensemble integration
  
• Rapid re-configuration of model and scenario
• Virtual Ecology Workbench
• Automates coding of ecological model and
  scenario
  
• Only hours to address a new problem

20
Technology solutions

• Linking Global and Coastal dynamics
• 21st century ocean model (ICL and CNR)
• Seamless from estuary to global
• Adaptive, unstructured mesh
• Non-hydrostatic, primitive-equation dynamics
• Individual-based biology using Lagrangian
  Ensemble integration
  
• Rapid re-configuration of model and scenario
• Virtual Ecology Workbench
• Automates coding of ecological model and
  scenario
  
• Only hours to address a new problem

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Training

• For operators of the new systems
• Using the new modelling tools
• Installing and running a local observing system
• Quality control and standards
• Standardizing on best practice from the regions
• Learning from training in weather forecasting

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Training

• For operators of the new systems
• Using the new modelling tools
• Installing and running a local observing system
• Quality control and standards
• Standardizing on best practice from the regions
• Learning from training in weather forecasting

23
Training

• For operators of the new systems
• Using the new modelling tools
• Installing and running a local observing system
• Quality control and standards
• Standardizing on best practice from the regions
• Learning from training in weather forecasting

24
Training

• For operators of the new systems
• Using the new modelling tools
• Installing and running a local observing system
• Quality control and standards
• Standardizing on best practice from the regions
• Learning from training in weather forecasting

25
Training

• For operators of the new systems
• Using the new modelling tools
• Installing and running a local observing system
• Quality control and standards
• Standardizing on best practice from the regions
• Learning from training in weather forecasting

26
Training

• For operators of the new systems
• Using the new modelling tools
• Installing and running a local observing system
• Quality control and standards
• Standardizing on best practice from the regions
• Learn how weather forecasters are trained

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Publications

• Need
• Strategy
• Training manuals
• Documentation of operational procedures
• GRAND Publication Series
• GOOS Regional Strategy
• Virtual Ecology Workbench
• 21st century operational models
• Local observations
• Coastal radar, etc.

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Workshops

• To develop the GOOS Regional Strategy
• Identify generic issues for all regions
• Learn from the regions (best practice)
• Start to design the training scheme
• Demonstrate the new technologies
• Primarily for Directors of GOOS regions
• October 2004 London or Southampton
• March 2005 Paris or Genova

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The future

• MedGOOS is planning MAMA-WIP
• Major EC funded project in Mediterranean Sea and
  Black Sea
  
• Trial the new technologies for What-if?
  Prediction
  

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