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Innovation Dynamics: Industry

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Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis. Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary ... Which technology gets adopted is often determined at the ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Innovation Dynamics: Industry


1
InnovationDynamicsIndustry Technology
RoadmappingIAP 2003 1/21/03Joost
Bonsenjpbonsen_at_alum.mit.edu http//web.media.m
it.edu/jpbonsen/
2
Technology Roadmapping (TRM)
  • Tech-Industry-level of observation. analysis
  • Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary
  • Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum
  • Viewing Business Implications Context of
    Technology trends
  • Unifying, Big-Picture perspective
  • Long-term view, futurecasting
  • Neutral-ground for discussion among industry
    players MIT research sponsors
  • Appealing to MBA, MEng, industrially-inclined
    PhD students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar

3
Technology Roadmapping
  • Fall Semester 2002 Class Offering
  • Emerging MIT Sloan research theme

4
Generalizing Enriching Historic Technology
Demand Trends
  • Historical Efforts
  • Moores Law
  • Electronic Devices
  • Sematech Roadmap
  • Disk Drives
  • Ongoing
  • Optical Networking
  • Wireless
  • Future
  • New technologies

5
Moores Law
Transistors per chip
109
?
108
107
106
105
104
103
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Source Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS
Centennial, Atlanta, 1999
Source Fine, MIT
6
Roadmap for Electronic Devices
Number of chip components
1018
Classical Age
Quantum Age
1016
1014
1012
Quantum State Switch
SIA Roadmap
1010
108
Historical Trend
CMOS
106
104
102
101
100
10-1
10-2
10-3
Source Fine, MIT
Feature size (microns)
Horst D. Simon
7
International Technology Roadmap for
Semiconductors 99
Source Fine, MIT
8
Disk Drive Development 1978-1991
Disk Drive Generation 14 8 5.25 3.5 2.5
Dominant Producer IBM Quantum Seagate Conner
Conner
Dominant Usage mainframe Mini-computer Desktop
PC Portable PC Notebook PC
Approx cost per Megabyte 750 100 30 7 2
From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density
increased by 60/year while semiconductor
density grew 50/year. Disk Drive cost per
megabyte in 1997 was .10
Source Fine, MIT
9
Optical Networking


OC768
OC192
OC48
Capacity
OC12
Time
Source Fine, MIT
10
Optical Technology Evolution Navigating the
Generations with an Immature Technology

Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT Corning
Source Fine, MIT
11
Supply Chain Volatility AmplificationThe
Bullwhip Effect
Retailer
Customer
Distributor
Factory
Equipment
Tier 1 Supplier
Information lags Delivery lags Over- and
underordering Misperceptions of
feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations
SOLUTIONS Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical
Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt.
(Cincinnati Milacron Boeing)
Source Fine, MIT
12
Supply Chain Volatility Amplification Machine
Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip
"Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain The
Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E.
Anderson, C. Fine G. Parker Production and
Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000,
pp. 239-261.
Source Fine, MIT
13
What are TRM essentials?
  • Performance indicators
  • Innovations over time, trendlines
  • Physical limitations
  • Value Chains
  • Industry Structure

14
Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping
  • Observing Value Chain Evolution over time
  • Language for discussion between management
    technology world
  • Structured basis for interaction Cross Value
    Chains, between academia industry, spanning
    basic research through application
  • Bridging between vertical silos of research
    e.g. MicroPhotonics ? LIDS ? Media Lab ? eBiz
    Center
  • Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps
  • Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up
    (generally)

15
Other Roadmapping Efforts
  • ITRS International Technology Roadmapping for
    Semiconductors
  • http//public.itrs.net/
  • Electricity Technology Roadmap
  • http//www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadma
    p/
  • Steel Industry Technology Roadmap
  • http//www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm
  • Lighting Technology Roadmap
  • http//www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/
  • Robotics Intelligent Machines RM
  • http//www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm

16
Technology AND Industry Roadmaps
  • Not just focus on technologies
  • Which technology gets adopted is often determined
    at the Industry level
  • How technology is adopted (or not) what are
    economic business issues

17
TRM Industry-Benefits
  • Economic context for technology decisions
    investments
  • Lowering Risks for capital investments
  • Not Stalins 5-year plans rather, coordination
    collaboration, co-optition

18
Components of MITs Technology Roadmapping Effort
(are at Least)
  • Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems
    dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect)
  • Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous
    version of the double helix in Fines Clockspeed
    book)
  • Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize
    Porter-like analyses for players in the value
    chain)
  • Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor
    Industry Association's roadmap built around
    Moore's law)
  • Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National,
    Cross Sector

Source Fine, MIT
19
TRM Value Chain vs Component Dynamics
20
The Fine Helix
Source Carroll, Srikantiah Wolters 2000
Telecom.LFM769.Spr00.ppt
21
Generalizing Quantifying Clockspeed
  • Benefits to comparing between Industries
  • Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics
  • Cross-species Benchmarking
  • Quantify Ultimately Model these Dynamics,
    improve theoretical understanding

22
Different Degrees of Industry Aggregation
  • Communications Roadmap
  • Optical Communications
  • MicroPhotonics
  • Wireless
  • Personal Area Networking
  • Cellular G3, G4, G5
  • Medical Imaging
  • MRI
  • Functional MRI
  • Nanotechnology
  • Precision Engineering
  • AFM
  • Biological Engineering
  • Bacterial Robotics

23
TRM Technology Domains(including, but not
limited to)
  • Established
  • Semiconductors
  • Photonics
  • Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics
  • Wireless
  • MEMS
  • Smart Materials
  • Emerging
  • Soft Lithography
  • Neurotechnology
  • Nanotechnology
  • Organotechnology
  • Biological Engineering
  • Gerontechnology
  • Autonomous Systems

MIT Emerging Technology Matrix http//web.media.m
it.edu/davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html
24
MIT Strategic Technology Thrusts
  • Information Technologies Ever more
    sophisticated computation communication,
    leveraging mind media.
  • Biomedical Technologies Medical engineering,
    perfecting the health life sciences.
  • Tiny Technologies Investigating and fabricating
    ever smaller systems, at scales from micro thru
    nano
  • Complex Systems Large scale, socio-political
    econo-technological systems.
  • Developmental Innovations Appropriate and
    leapfrog technologies for tackling challenges in
    developing emerging regions

25
Richly Interwoven MIT Themes
1. InfoTech
2. BioTech
3. TinyTech
4. Complex Systems
5. Developmental Innovations
26
MIT Matrix
http//web.media.mit.edu/jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Te
chnology-Matrix.htm
27
http//web.media.mit.edu/jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Te
chnology-Matrix.htm
28
Core Sloan Themes
Leadership
Innovation
Technology Entrepreneurship Strategy Dynamics
Effective Organizations, Culture-Crafting Entre-
Intra-preneurial Leadership
Transformative Innovations, Emerging Hard Soft
Technologies, Disruptive Challenges
Dynamic, Networked Organizations
Developmental Innovations, MicroFinance
Global Business Strategy, Accelerating
International Development
Global
29
Unifying Strategic Themes
MIT Sloan
Unifying Strategic Themes
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
30
Classic Disciplinary Strengths
MIT Sloan
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
31
MIT Sloan Capabilities
MIT Sloan Matrix
Sloan Matrix
Unifying Strategic Themes
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
32
Sloan Matrix
Unifying Strategic Themes
Venture Finance
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
33
Mapping Sloan Faculty to MITs Emerging Strategic
Tech Sectors
34
Faculty Interests _at_ Levels of Analysis
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Economic Growth
Global Supply Chains
Global Strategy
Market Differentiation
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Strategy
Venture Capital
Business Dynamics
Entrepreneurial Culture
Valuing IP
Marketing- Engineering Links
Group Dynamics
Trader Psychology
Buyer Decision-Making
Inventor Ethos
35
Levels x Discipline
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
36
Research ClustersAt Various Levels of Analysis
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmap
Technology Venture Observatory
OpenSource Initiative
Virtual Customer Initiative
Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases
37
Weaving together Interest Clusters at Various
Levels of Analysis
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmap
Technology Venture Observatory
OpenSource Initiative
Virtual Customer Initiative
Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases
ION
38
Innovation ObservatoriesFurther Possibilities
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmap
Technology Venture Observatory
OpenSource Initiative
Virtual Customer Initiative
Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases
39
Innovation ObservatoriesTechnology Roadmapping
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmapping
40
http//mph-roadmap.mit.edu/
41
Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium
eBusiness, Oxygen, Media Lab
LCS
LIDS, RLE
MPC, MTL
ITC
COMP- ONENTS
CONTENT APPLICS
MATERIALS PROCESS EQUIP
EQUIPMENT MAKERS
END USERS
SERVICE PROVIDERS
NETWORK OWNERS
DEVICES
  • Business
  • Consumer
  • Govt
  • Military
  • Education
  • Medical
  • Etc..

Source Prof. C. Fine, MIT
42
Why Value Tech Roadmapping?
  • Trends -- Statement of historic performance
    improvement and extrapolations into future
  • Consensus Shared opinion about likely future
    developments
  • Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue
    particular technologies
  • Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on
    pre-competitive research funding
  • Understanding -- Method of understanding broader
    socio-economic context of broad technology trends

43
15.795 Technology Roadmapping
(An example Masters Research Seminar)
Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost Bonsen Fall
2002 This seminar will explore the purposes and
development of Technology Roadmaps for
systematically mapping out possible development
paths for various technological domains and the
industries that build on them. Data of
importance for such roadmaps include rates of
innovation, key bottlenecks, physical
limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate
intent, and value chain and industry
evolutionary paths. The course will build on
ongoing work on the MIT Communications
Technology Roadmap project, but will explore
other domains selected from Nanotechnology,
Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics,
Neurotechnology, Imaging Diagnostics, etc.
Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be
offered.
44
TRM Class Goals
  • Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT
    researchers, Industry Sponsors
  • Across MIT research areas
  • Cross Industry Benchmarking
  • Partnered with Industrial Sponsors
  • Attract students passionate about technology
    sector, however broadly or narrowly defined
  • Committed to producing coherent complete Tech
    Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester

45
Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research
Agendae
  • Business school disconnect
  • Unfortunate and sub-optimal
  • Were prototyping a new path
  • Help show that it works!

46
Seminars Conferences
  • Part of 9 units is required attendance of
    relevant technology seminars throughout MIT.
  • Find them through http//web.mit.edu Google so
    forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.

47
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48
High TRM Student Expectations
  • Serious commitment of time interest
  • Literature review substantial interviews
  • Attend talks seminar series in that tech
    sector, thats part of the course
  • E.g. http//web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem-series.
    shtml
  • Data gathering presentation smithing
  • Crafting a draft PPT DOC by semesters end

49
TRM Academia Speakers (and Labs to Engage)
  • Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS
  • http//www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/
  • Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI
  • http//hst.mit.edu/martinos/
  • Bob Brown Alice Gast, MITs Research Directors
  • Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech
  • http//web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html
  • Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics
  • http//www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html
  • Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery
  • http//web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html
  • Victor Zue Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project
    Oxygen
  • http//www.lcs.mit.edu/ http//www.ai.mit.edu/
    http//oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/
  • Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering
  • http//web.mit.edu/be/
  • E. Sachs, 3D Printing
  • http//web.mit.edu/tdp/www/
  • Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits Atoms

50
TRM Seeds Working Collaborations w/ MIT Labs
Sponsors
  • Generalizing beyond MicroPhotonics Center
    Communication Roadmap
  • Engaging Lab Directors as speakers in 15.795 TRM
    seminar
  • Ask them to speculate about the important trends
    in their areas to proto-roadmap
  • What would they like? What would their sponsors
    like?

51
TRM Literature
  • MicroPhotonics Center
  • http//mph-roadmap.mit.edu
  • Example Theses
  • http//mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspeed/main.h
    tml
  • References
  • http//www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/

52
Fin
Joost Bonsen jpbonsen_at_alum.mit.edu
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