Title: Ch 9: Risk and Rates of Return
1Ch 9 Risk and Rates of Return
2In Chapter 9we examine RISK
- How to measure risk
- (variance, standard deviation, beta)
- How to reduce risk
- (diversification)
- How to price risk
- (security market line, CAPM)
3For a Treasury security, what is the required
rate of return?
- Since Treasuries are essentially free of default
risk, the rate of return on a Treasury security
is considered the risk-free rate of return.
4For a corporate stock or bond, what is the
required rate of return?
- How large of a risk premium should we require to
buy a corporate security?
5Expected Return
- State of Probability Return
- Economy (P) Orl. Utility
Orl. Tech - Recession .20 4
-10 - Normal .50 10
14 - Boom .30 14
30 - k P(k1)k1 P(k2)k2 ... P(kn)kn
- k (OI) .2 (-10) .5 (14) .3 (30) 14
6What is Risk?
- Uncertainty in the distribution of possible
outcomes.
7How do we Measure Risk?
- To get a general idea of a stocks price
variability, we could look at the stocks price
range over the past year.
52 weeks Yld Vol
Net Hi Lo Sym Div PE 100s Hi
Lo Close Chg 139 81 IBM .48 .5 26
56598 108 106 1065/8 -2 119 75 MSFT
60 254888 96 93 953/8 1/4
8How do we Measure Risk?
- A more scientific approach is to examine the
stocks standard deviation of returns. - Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion
of possible outcomes. - The greater the standard deviation, the greater
the uncertainty, and therefore , the greater the
risk.
9Standard Deviation
10- Orlando Utility, Inc.
- ( 4 - 10)2 (.2) 7.2
- (10 - 10)2 (.5) 0
- (14 - 10)2 (.3) 4.8
- Variance 12
- Stand. dev. 12 3.46
11- Orlando Technology, Inc.
- (-10 - 14)2 (.2) 115.2
- (14 - 14)2 (.5) 0
- (30 - 14)2 (.3) 76.8
- Variance 192
- Stand. dev. 192 13.86
12Summary
-
- Orlando
Orlando - Utility Technology
- Expected Return 10 14
- Standard Deviation 3.46 13.86
13- It depends on your tolerance for risk!
- Remember, theres a tradeoff between risk and
return.
14Portfolios
- Combining several securities in a portfolio can
actually reduce overall risk. - How does this work?
15Diversification
- Investing in more than one security to reduce
risk. - If two stocks are perfectly positively
correlated, diversification has no effect on
risk. - If two stocks are perfectly negatively
correlated, the portfolio is perfectly
diversified.
16- If you owned a share of every stock traded on the
NYSE and NASDAQ, would you be diversified? - YES!
- Would you have eliminated all of your risk?
- NO! Common stock portfolios still have risk.
17Some risk can be diversified away and some can
not.
- Market risk (systematic risk) is
nondiversifiable. This type of risk can not be
diversified away. - Company-unique risk (unsystematic risk) is
diversifiable. This type of risk can be reduced
through diversification.
18Market Risk
- Unexpected changes in interest rates.
- Unexpected changes in cash flows due to tax rate
changes, foreign competition, and the overall
business cycle.
19Company-unique Risk
- A companys labor force goes on strike.
- A companys top management dies in a plane crash.
- A huge oil tank bursts and floods a companys
production area.
20- As you add stocks to your portfolio,
company-unique risk is reduced.
21Do some firms have more market risk than others?
- Yes. For example
- Interest rate changes affect all firms, but which
would be more affected - a) Retail food chain
- b) Commercial bank
22- Note
- As we know, the market compensates investors for
accepting risk - but only for market risk.
Company-unique risk can and should be diversified
away. - So - we need to be able to measure market risk.
23This is why we have Beta.
- Beta a measure of market risk.
- Specifically, beta is a measure of how an
individual stocks returns vary with market
returns. - Its a measure of the sensitivity of an
individual stocks returns to changes in the
market.
24The markets beta is 1
- A firm that has a beta 1 has average market
risk. The stock is no more or less volatile than
the market. - A firm with a beta gt 1 is more volatile than the
market. - (ex technology firms)
- A firm with a beta lt 1 is less volatile than the
market. - (ex utilities)
25Calculating Beta
26Summary
- We know how to measure risk, using standard
deviation for overall risk and beta for market
risk. - We know how to reduce overall risk to only market
risk through diversification. - We need to know how to price risk so we will know
how much extra return we should require for
accepting extra risk.
27What is the Required Rate of Return?
- The return on an investment required by an
investor given market interest rates and the
investments risk.
28(No Transcript)
29security market line (SML)
.
12
Risk-free rate of return (6)
Beta
1
30- This linear relationship between risk and
required return is known as the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM).
31SML
.
12
Risk-free rate of return (6)
0
Beta
1
32SML
Is there a riskless (zero beta) security?
.
12
Treasury securities are as close to riskless as
possible.
Risk-free rate of return (6)
0
Beta
1
33SML
Where does the SP 500 fall on the SML?
.
12
The SP 500 is a good approximation for the
market
Risk-free rate of return (6)
0
Beta
1
34SML
Utility Stocks
.
12
Risk-free rate of return (6)
0
Beta
1
35SML
High-tech stocks
.
12
Risk-free rate of return (6)
0
Beta
1
36The CAPM equation
b
- kj krf j (km - krf )
- where
- kj the required return on security j,
- krf the risk-free rate of interest,
- j the beta of security j, and
- km the return on the market index.
b
37Example
- Suppose the Treasury bill rate is 6, the average
return on the SP 500 index is 12, and Walt
Disney has a beta of 1.2. - According to the CAPM, what should be the
required rate of return on Disney stock?
38kj krf (km - krf )
b
- kj .06 1.2 (.12 - .06)
- kj .132 13.2
- According to the CAPM, Disney stock should be
priced to give a 13.2 return.
39SML
Theoretically, every security should lie on the
SML
.
12
If every stock is on the SML, investors are
being fully compensated for risk.
Risk-free rate of return (6)
0
Beta
1
40SML
If a security is above the SML, it is underpriced.
.
12
If a security is below the SML, it is
overpriced.
Risk-free rate of return (6)
0
Beta
1
41Practice Problem
- Find the intrinsic value of a common stock with
the following information - ROE 20
- 50 retention of earnings
- Beta 1.4
- recent dividend 4.30
- Treasury bond yield 7.5
- Return on the SP 500 12
- Market price for common stock 100
- Should you buy the stock?
42Practice Problem
- g ROE x r .20 x .50 10
- D0 4.30, so D1 4.30 (1.10) 4.73
- k .075 1.4 (.12 - .075) .138