USAF Tropical Cyclone Support and Needs

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USAF Tropical Cyclone Support and Needs
Col Mark Zettlemoyer AF/A3O-WX 2 March 2009
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OverviewAir Force Weather

• Tropical Cyclone Support 10 Years Ago
• Current Forecast Accuracy Needs
• Critical Partnerships
• Air Force Support
• Research and Ops Need your continued support

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USAF Tropical Cyclone Support10 Years Ago

• Typhoon warning capability critical to
  warfighters in Pacific/IO
• Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast
  and warning accuracy
• Will take research and operational focus using
  technology as the enabler
• The continued challenge work the 10-year plan
  to improve forecast and warning accuracy by a
  factor of 3 or more

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportForecast Accuracy
Progress thus far 30 years of focused RD and T2
WPAC Intensity Error
WPAC Track Error
We must work this.
Impressive! Improvement factor 2.0 2.5!
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JTWC Operational Priorities

• Intensity guidance/rapid intensification
• TC/environmental characterization
• Genesis guidance
• Structure guidance

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How to get thereCritical Partnerships

• Operational partnerships
• USAF/Navy
• TPC, CPHC
• NOAA NWS, NESDIS, OAR
• RSMCs

JTWC
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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportStrengths for
Research

• AF Weather has near-real time access to
  interrogatable imagery
• Could be formatted and disseminated for research
  projects

• Hurricane Hunters WC130J
• AFRC environmental recon mission
  corrects/validates satellite interrogation
  techniques
• Leverage UAS capabilities

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportStrengths for
Research

• Continues to send officers through Naval post
  graduate programs to earn tropical-related
  masters degrees

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
  operationalizes research through its techniques
  development section
• JTWC data available in digital formats
• Easily leveraged for research

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportCommunity Help

• Need research community support
• Top priority is intensity/structureneed improved

• Specification of cyclone structure (wind strength
  and distribution)
• Satellite-based intensity/structure estimates
• Forecast techniques for cyclone
  intensity/structure changes over time

• Climate change influence on cyclone tracks /
  intensities
• Impacts on strategic / failing states (e.g.,
  Africa, Indian Ocean)

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportCommunity Help

• Operations input into research decisions (OFCM
  WG/TCR)
• Communications and interoperability (e.g., ATCF)
• National and international collaboration
• Data exchange, modeling
• Space-based sensing incl scatterometry
• and MW imagers/sounders

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USAF Tropical Cyclone Support

• Typhoon warning capability critical to
  warfighters in Pacific/IO
• Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast
  and warning accuracy
• Will take research and operational focus using
  technology as the enabler

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USAF Tropical Cyclone Support
Questions?
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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportAFIT Thesis Topics

• Quantify the amount of forecast error attributed
  to initial position error in the major models
• Determine intensity using passive microwave
  radiance data
• Determine if rapid fluctuations in typhoon
  intensity could have been influenced by ocean
  heat content and TC heat potential
• Identify sources of large forecast track errors
• Develop rules of thumb to improve rapid
  intensification forecasting 24 to 48 hours before
  it occurs
• Identify factors that may enhance or inhibit
  tropical cyclone development in the western North
  Pacific
• Develop a monsoon depression climatology
• Develop a midget tropical cyclone climatology