Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During El Nino

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Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest
Pacific During El Nino

• Andy Chan
• Environmental and Water Resources
  EngineeringUniversity of Texas at Austin

webspace.utexas.edu/zimmeau/www/gis
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EAST ASIA
North Korea
South Korea
Japan
China
Taiwan
Macau
The Philippines
Vietnam
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Data Source

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center
• http//metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/best_tracks/wpi
  ndex.html
• NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction
  Center
• http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitor
  ing/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

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Dr. Johnny Chans Observation
Tropical cyclone activity over the western North
Pacific associated with El Nino and La Nina
events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972
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Determining El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Years
Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov ENL
1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 L
1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N
1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 N
1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 E
1992 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N
1993 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2  
1994 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 E
1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 L
1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N
1997 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 E
1998 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 L
1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 L
2000 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 L
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N
2002 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 E
2003 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5  
2004 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 E
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Raw Data
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Convert Points to Polygon
http//www.xtoolspro.com/tools.html
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POINTS AND POLYLINE
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THE GRID
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Neutral Years
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El Nino Years
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La Nina Years
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Difference between El Nino and Neutral Years
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Difference between La Nina and Neutral Years
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Conclusion
El Nino La Nina
South China Sea Below Normal Above Normal
East Asia (Japan) Above Normal Below Normal
Matched with the observations in Dr. Chans paper.
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Thank you. Questions?