THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF BIOTERRORISM THREAT Episode III' ONE YEAR AFTER' THE CHARACTER OF THREATS

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THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF BIOTERRORISM
THREATEpisode III. ONE YEAR AFTER.THE
CHARACTER OF THREATS AND MAIN THREATS RANKING.
Konstantyn Atoyev
Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics National
Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
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CHARACTER OF THREATS
The threats of bioterrorism have univerversal
character. They include almost all ty- pes of
threat, that menti- oned in the National
Strategy for Homeland Security 1 also in
Con- cept of Foreighn Police of
Russua 2
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1. Local and regional threats 2. Transnational
threats3. The spread of dangerous
technologies4. Disruption of governmental
structures work
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These threats may be classify on there origins by
follows
1. Applications of advanced biotechnologies
for terrorism. 2. Information on how to produce
and dis- seminate pathogens and toxins is
readily available in open sources.3.
Corruption and money laundering increase.
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4. Strengthening of authoritarism and
spreading of fundamental ideology of various
genesis due to problems of world economical
globalization (migration, unemployment, vast
disparities between rich and poor, collision
of cultures), 5. The antiterroristic and
anticrime legisla- tion is no effective also
as efforts of dif- ferent force poles of
terrorism struggle.
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6. Contradictions between necessity of
society liberalization during transfor-
ming from industrial epoch to epoch of
computer nets, when more effective
horizontal structures push out vertical
integration and struggle withcorruption
becomes more difficult.
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WHY BIOLOGICAL AND TOXIN WEAPONS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME EVER MORE ATTRACTIVE TO CRIMINALS AND
TERRORISTS ?
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Main reasons

• 1. The advanced biotechnologies have increased
  opportunities to weaponize pathogens due to
• Site-directed mutagenesis
• Elaboration of a new type of virus
• Development of functional genomics

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• 2. Increasing number of experts in biosciences
  caused by development of
• Biotechnology
• Pharmacology
• Environmental and health delivery
• industries
• Information availability in open sources

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• 3. Difficulties in biological weapon
  discovering caused by
• The absence of defensive technologies of
• real time regim
• The tactical weapons utilizing pathogens
• or toxins can be designed so that they
• are easily hidden

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Where is the powerful source of terrorism ?
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• 1. The lowering of national gove-rnments
  possibilities in struggle against crime caused by
  main tendencies of the third millennium
• Economical globalization
• Social disruptions
• Corruption (organized and transnational
• crimes, drug and firearm trafficking,
• laundering of money)

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• 2. Mental disadaptation caused by the
  peculiarities of modern society
• urbanization
• industrialization
• technological progress
• total population migration
• development of mass-media
• icrease of national and cultural contacts

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• 3. Confusion of traditional social and religious
  norms in human mentality
• Mutual penetration of matrixes of west and
  orient worldview
• The great populations of their bearers immersed
  in alien culture, alien landscape alien reality
  perception

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4. Disparities between political institutes
development andacceleration of economics and
social system transforming in conveniencewith
Hundtington conception 3.
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What is the main threat?
Accumulation of
enormous finances by crime structures (300 500
billions of money laundered each year)
Finance

Technics
Advanced
biotechnologies (especially DNA technologies and
genetic and protein engineering)

People
strengthening of
authorita-rism and spread of fundamental ideology
of various genesis are the powerful source
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Pooling of enormous finances, ad-vanced
biotechnologies and authorita-rian personalities
gives dangerous explosive mixtuare. That is why
the opinion that only well sup-ported, longterm
national BW programs would attempt genetic
engineering projects for the purpose of
weaponizing pathogens 4 is not quite correct
now.
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PATHWAYS OF PROBLEMS SOLUTION
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The analysis of main difficulties of the struggle
with bioterrorism allows emphasize two groups of
problems.
Mental problems
Technological problems
Criminality
Finance
FffF
Authoritarian fun-damental ideology
Biotechnologies
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The technological combines the following
questions
1. What are the main threats, connected with
applications of advanced biotechno-logies for
terrorism?
2. What targets of bioterrorist attacks are the
weakest links, which lead to the maximum waste
for society?
3. How we can struggle with these threats?
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The mental group combines the following
questions
1. How people come to terrorism? 2. What
cognitve and emotional factors have affected this
decision? 3. How we can preserve them from this
choose?
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The first problem solution demands the following
actions
1. Development of more sensitive monito-ring
systems and preserve technologies, which increase
the efficacy of public health and environmental
service various measures.
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1. Proper waste disposal, water treatment,
and air filtration 2. Elaboration of new
therapeutics, such as antibiotics,
germicides, and other agents, weaken or kill
the pathogen.3. Prevention of infectious
diseases through vaccine and antitoxin
RD.4. Seeking methods, which augment the
patient ability to resist infection.5. Lowering
the probability of long time contacts with
pathogens.
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2. Innovation of Global Epidemic Defense
Systems that would be elaborated on the basis of
modern information and avia-space tehnologies and
on the advances of the genetic and protein
engineering and may assisted by ground and
satellite tracking systems.
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These high technological systems can be utilized
for two cardinal questions solution
1. To minimize the lag time between attack
beginning and time when it would identify. 2.
Transform priorities from reacting on
co-nsequences (the tactic of yesterdays
planning 5) to control of events risks or,
another wards, to be constantly ada-pted to meet
emerging challenges.
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3. Elaboration of information technologies of
regulation, processing and analysis grate mass of
information, obtained due to systems of space and
aviation video- audio-techniques monitoring,
forecasting and optimal control.
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These technologies will allow solve
some tasks of rare events forecasting, early
recognition of threats and their assessment,
ranking and control of preservation or
liquidation of consequences in online regime
6.
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The problems of the mental group are caused by
main tendencies of the third millennium
economical globalization, social disruptions,
corruption, mental disadaptation. Their
solution demands more efforts and will be
connected with bases of our civilization
functioning.
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This lecture is based on
1. Securing the homeland, strengthening the
nation (2002) http//www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/
homeland_security_book.html2. Shubert T.E. Some
aspects of efficacy of the US National Defence
system//Pravo i politika. 2001.- ?6.- ?. 56-63
In Rus..3. Garrett L. The nightmare of
bioterrorism// Foreighn Affairs.- 2001.-
V.80.-?1.-?. 76-89.
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4. Hundtington S.P. Political Order in Changing
Societies.- New Haven, 1968.5. Probst P. (2001)
Antiterrorism some aspects of organization//
National Defence, ? 9-10.- ?. 21-25. in Rus.6.
Atoyev K.L.(2002) Epidemiological risk
assessmentearly recognition of risks and
identification and ranking of critical factors
//Proc. ISEA /ISEE 2002 .- Vancouver, BC, Canada