Phillip Manuel Fire Weather Program Leader

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Phillip Manuel (Fire Weather Program Leader) NWS
Corporate Research Center 1750 Forecast
Drive Blacksburg, VA 24060 Email
phillip.manuel_at_noaa.gov Phone [phone] Fax
540-552-1650
Fire Weather Meteorologist
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To Get Fire
OXYGEN
FUEL
FIRE
HEAT
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How Fire Behaves
WEATHER
FIRE BEHAVIOR
FUELS
TOPOGRAPHY
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Weather Information
Mehring / R3
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Where do you get weather information?
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• Newspaper?
• Almanac?
• Television?

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The internet a good place to gather fire weather
intelligence.
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Where to find information on the Internet
http//www.weather.gov http//www.dof.virginia.go
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The State of Virginia is served by 5 Weather
Service offices Blacksburg Wakefield
Sterling Charleston Morristown.
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Point and Click
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Discussion
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Short Term Forecast
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Long Term Forecast the extended forecast
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Issued twice daily. During the morning and
afternoon (200-400 am/pm). Composed of a
Weather Discussion, Current Watches and/or
Warnings, Forecast Weather Conditions and a
Transport and Stability Forecast, An Extended
Forecast (including winds and relative humidity
minimums), and an 8-14 day outlook.
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Forecasts are not site specific. General
forecast with average conditions over the entire
forecast area. Does
not take into account for local effects. The
forecast will be updated if weather conditions
are no longer representative.
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• Any mention of a strong west or northwest winds
  (High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories).
• Poor overnight humidity recovery or minimums of
  less than 30.
• Dry lightning.
• An extended period of above normal temperature
  with below normal precipitation.

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Spot Request
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Weather Planner
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Weather Activity Planner
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Weather is a great bluffer. Just when you think
you have figured it out, it changes.
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Red Flag Events

• Dry Lightning.
• The first lightning event after an extended dry
  period.
• Unusually low relative humidity.
• Very dry and unstable air. (Haines Index)
• Very strong and shifting winds that may or may
  not be associated with a cold front.

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Red Flag Criteria For VA

• Generally, a Red Flag Warning will be issued
  when
• Ten hour fuel moistures are observed or expected
  to be 7 percent or less.
• -AND-
• Relative humidity is expected to fall below 30
  percent at any time over the forecast area and
  sustained wind of 20 mph or more.
• Established by VICC/NWS/Fire Management Partners
  for the 2008 Fire Season

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Fire Weather Watches

• Used to alert land management agencies of the
  possible development of weather conditions, when
  coupled with critically dry and volatile fuel
  conditions, that may contribute to potentially
  dangerous wildfire situations.
• Issued for all or part of a fire district.

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Fire Weather Watches (Cont.)

• Issued when the fire weather meteorologist is
  reasonably confident that a Red Flag event will
  occur in the next 24 to 72 hours.
• Issued in conjunction with the regularly
  scheduled fire weather forecasts.

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Red Flag Warnings

• Issued to warn land management agencies of an
  impending or already occurring Red Flag event.
• Issued immediately when the Fire Weather
  Meteorologist becomes aware of an ongoing Red
  Flag event.
• Issued for impending Red Flag conditions when
  there is a high degree of confidence and the
  onset of the critical weather conditions is less
  than 24 hours away.

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Red Flag Warnings (cont.)

• Will remain in effect until the critical weather
  pattern passes or fails to develop. Warnings will
  then be canceled.
• May be issued with the regular fire weather
  forecast or will await input from fire management
  agencies.

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example.htm
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Review

• Identify how and where to obtain weather
  information.
• List types of weather forecasts available.
• Describe common terms used in weather
  forecasting.
• Define Red Flag Warning.

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Learn more about Fire Weather Intelligence!
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Blacksburg, VA

• Phillip Manuel (Fire Weather Program Leader)
• NWS Corporate Research Center
• 1750 Forecast Drive
• Blacksburg, VA 24060
• Email phillip.manuel_at_noaa.gov
• Phone [phone]
• Fax [phone]