Opportunities for Partnerships, Outreach and Education

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Southwest Drought Monitoring Drought Impacts
,Products, and Meeting User Needs NOAA Climate
Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 22,
2008 - Lincoln, NE
Gregg Garfin Deputy Director for Science
Translation and Outreach
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Acknowledgments

• Arizona Drought Monitoring Technical Committee
• Mike Crimmins, U. Arizona Cooperative Extension
• Nancy Selover, Arizona State Climatologist, ASU
• Statewide Drought Program (Arizona Department of
  Water Resources)
• New Mexico Drought Working Group
• John Longworth, NM Office of the State Engineer
• Atiq Syed, USDA-NRCS
• Doug Moyer, USGS
• Hilary Brinegar, NM Department of Agriculture
• Chris Castro, University of Arizona
• Andrew Ellis, Arizona State University

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User Needs

• More observations, continuous, everywhere
• Long-lead forecasts, 90 accuracy, for all
  variables
• Tailored to an individuals specific decisions
• Integrated into a flexible decision support
  framework that includes climate, policy,
  economics
• Our part of the state/country/world is unique
• Andclimate doesnt really affect us
• Water rights, growth, technology, foreign
  competitors

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Increased temperatures, decreased soil moisture,
result in greater stress, longer insect breeding
cycles. Once a threshold is crossed massive
mortality occurs.
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Top 10 Southwest Fires
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Following large, stand-replacing fires, 100-fold
increases in runoff and erosion. July 2001, Cerro
Grande Fire area
Craig Allen, USGS
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1950 AZ population 750,000 2000 AZ population
5,100,000 2025 AZ population 9,600,000
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1950 NM population 680,000 2000 NM population
1,800,000 2025 NM population 2,500,000
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Lake Powell
Data US Bureau of Reclamation
Photos J. Dohrenwend
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http//www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts/swoutlook.
html
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Drought Monitoring inArizona and New Mexico
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Long-term Drought Status 12-48 mo
Short-term Drought Status lt 12 mo 
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Northwestern Arizona Massachusetts Connecticut Rh
ode Island But Elevation range 7,500 ft.
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Gauge Loss!
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Out of our control
http//www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts/swoutlook.
html
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http//www.azwater.gov/dwr/drought/DroughtStatus.h
tml
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Office of the State Engineer National Weather
Service USDA NRCS USDA Forest Service USGS US
Bureau of Land Management US Bureau of
Reclamation US Army Corps of Engineers NM
Department of Agriculture NM Department of Public
Safety Taos Pueblo Navajo Nation CLIMAS
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5 Statewide Elevation Range 10,000 ft.
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http//www.nmdrought.state.nm.us/
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http//www.nmdrought.state.nm.us/
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http//www.nmdrought.state.nm.us/
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http//www.nmdrought.state.nm.us/
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Innovationsand Research
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Local DroughtImpactGroups(LDIGs)

• 7 established
• 2 initial meetings
• 5 near future

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azdroughtwatch.org
Train-up with agency professionals
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Agua Fria Watershed Mean Monthly Precipitation
Red Wet Green Dry
JANUARY Point 1.48 PRISM 1.65 SD 0.50 R
0.88-3.70
Nancy Selover, Arizona State University
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UNDER
OVER
Nancy Selover, Arizona State University
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Hydroclimatic Index (P-PE)
Andrew Ellis, Arizona State University
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Cool Season Runoff Relationship to SPI
Winter signal for Arizona sub-basins 6-12 month
SPI is best
Chris Castro, University of Arizona
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Warm season runoff relationship to SPI
Monsoon signal Stronger for Arizona sub-basins,
3-6 month SPI best
Chris Castro, University of Arizona
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Relationship of Reservoir Storage to SPI Salt
River Watershed
Chris Castro, University of Arizona
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NDVI
Thomas et al., University of Arizona
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Correlation 0.92
Chris Castro, University of Arizona
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Dynamic Drought Index Tool
http//drought.dnr.sc.gov
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http//www.agroclimate.org/
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Priorities
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User Needs

• More observations, continuous, everywhere
• Long-lead forecasts, 90 accuracy, for all
  variables
• Tailored to an individuals specific decisions
• Integrated into a flexible decision support
  framework that includes climate, policy,
  economics
• Our part of the state/country/world is unique
• Andclimate doesnt really affect us
• Water rights, growth, technology, foreign
  competitors

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User Needs

• Water managers
• Sustainability of long-term supplies
• Peak demands
• Riparian
• Low flows, soil moisture
• Agriculture
• Water allocations, planting dates,
  pesticide/fertilizer applications, frost
• Wildlife/Forest
• Disturbance, invasives, water, migration

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Monitoring Concerns and Needs

• Institutional constraints
• New data streams remote sensing, blended,
  interpolated
• Network degradation
• Data quality
• Data access
• Hydroclimate information system

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Monitoring Priorities

• Water budget
• Consumptive uses, ET, crop water use
• Soil moisture, groundwater recharge
• Low flows
• Mountain locations
• Snow hydrology, rain on snow, snow-runoff
• Elevation gradients
• SNOTEL

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Automated Continuous Data Collection
HCN-M
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Monitoring Priorities

• High resolution products
• Scaled to land management unit, farm

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Monitoring Priorities

• Collaboration
• Tribes
• Integration
• Non-official networks
• Qualitative observations

SNOTEL
RAWS
CoCoRAHS
AZMET
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Research Priorities

• Forecasts
• Gridded seasonal drought index forecasts
• Low flows
• Monsoon onset
• Multi-year drought
• years in advance

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Research Priorities

• How will accuracy of predictions of climate and
  hydrologic variability change with warming?
• What are the implications of climate change for
  groundwater availability and management?
• How can hydrologic forecasts be extended beyond
  annual volumes to provide information about
  seasonality, timing of peak surface water flows,
  and extremes?
• Can we develop better snowmelt/runoff models for
  operational purposes?
• Can climate predictions be linked to end-to-end
  systems that merge the analysis of all major
  factors determining local operational and/or
  management decisions into a coherent framework?

http//www.azwaterinstitute.org
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Research Priorities

• Monitoring
• Evaluation of needs by sector, to develop
  tailored monitoring products
• Sensitivity, timing, seasonality
• Evaluation of non-official networks
• Methods for integrating short records
• Low flows
• Improved quality assurance
• Not caveat emptor
• Demand side

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Research Priorities

• Diagnostics Applied Climatology
• Snow hydroclimatology
• Water balance, melt, runoff
• Changes in precipitation seasonality
• Triggers
• Translate thresholds into impacts, actions
• Customized indices
• Groundwater
• Links to climate, surface water, attribution of
  trends
• Reliability of climate patterns attribution

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Assessment and Decision Support Tool Priorities

• Tools
• Simple interfaces, transparent, flexible,
  validated
• Contrast alternatives, locate decision points
• Integration of all sectors
• Factor in attribution
• Growth, Climate, Water uses
• Water footprint
• Sustainability
• How effective is conservation?

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No sprinkling until further notice
1957 Stringent restrictions on water are
becoming more common each year. Americas water
needs have far outstripped our water supply
facilities. Too many of our water works, our
pumping stations, our wells, are antiquated when
faced with our booming birth rateour expanding
economy and industryour vastly increased water
consumption.
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Gregg Garfin Climate Assessment for the
Southwest Institute for the Study of Planet
Earth gmgarfin_at_email.arizona.edu 520-622-9016 www.
ispe.arizona.edu/climas
http//www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/
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http//www.sahra.arizona.edu/wells/
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Charge to the Speaker
We would like to invite you to make an oral
presentation in one of the opening sessions
during the workshop. The general theme of the
session is "Observing and Monitoring Drought",
and our goal for this session is to review the
current status of drought monitoring from both
the scientific and stakeholder perspectives. We
hope you can share your experience with these
issues in the Southwest and provide some thoughts
on possible priorities for drought research.