Nordic ICT Foresight: Project structure, key results and the lessons learned

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Nordic ICT Foresight Project structure, key
results andthe lessons learned

• Toni Ahlqvist
• VTT
• Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment
• Tomorrow will arrive! -
• Nordic Foresight Seminar in Copenhagen 180709

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Outline of the presentation

• Project idea and structure
• Key ideas of the desktop study
• Key ideas of the SWOT-analyses
• Technological scope and emphases
• Key ideas of the scenario and vision phase
• Key ideas of the roadmapping phase
• Key ideas of the action phase
• Policy recommendations implementation strategies
  and adaptive strategies
• Evaluation and the general lessons learned

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Project idea and objectives

• To identify, select and present scenarios
  illustrating the prospects for possible future
  applications for IC technologies with respect to
  technology, application and market issues
• To explore the roads to commercialisation
• provide solutions where ICT can provide positive
  contributions to societal wellbeing
• identification of unique market opportunities
  with longer-term growth potential
• To explore appropriate ways of implementing the
  innovative ICT applications and systems
• prioritise research, development and
  commercialisation of ICT
• consider the required infrastructure technologies
• To estimate and compare the implications of the
  ICT applications in Nordic countries (Denmark,
  Finland, Norway, Sweden)
• assist in developing appropriate framework
  policies that facilitate the developments in
  desired directions
• build roadmaps up to 2015 of the developments in
  ICT's
• Metalevel aim To consider the elements that are
  unique in Nordic ICT culture specific Nordic innovations "style" in ICT's?

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Partners in the project
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WP1 Preliminary studies
WP3 SWOT analysis
Selection of focus areas and applications
WP4 Scenario and vision workshop
WP2 Web-site information
WP6 Roadmap seminar
National seminars
WP 11 Evaluation
WP7 Action seminar
WP9 Reporting
WP10 Nordic conference
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Thematic fields of the project

• The project focused on the Nordic level ICT
  environment and applications
• Thematic focus areas were the following
• Experience economy (media and communication)
• Health care
• Production economy (industrial automation,
  production systems)
• Security (emphasis on information security)

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Key results of the desktop study
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Convergence of IC technologies
2000
2020
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Themes and technologies
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Example of the SWOT analysesexperience economy
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Example of the emerging applicationshealth
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Generic ICTs
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Structure of the scenario workshop
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Nordic ICT Foresight scenario cross
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Comparing the scenarios (1/2)

• Scenario 1 ICT for Security's Sake
• Closed and secure systems
• Greens personal health card, closed and safe
  Internet, security system for local
  neighbourhoods, intelligent distributed data
  storage early warning system for the elderly
  home care
• Reds the spontaneous, ad-hoc networking
• Scenario 2 Nordic Mystique
• Open source in the Nordic welfare spirit, many
  potential ICT applications especially in the
  healthcare
• Greens Nordic health applications market, early
  warning system for the elderly at home, personal
  health card, smart training intelligent paper
  (2)

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Comparing the scenarios (2/2)

• Scenario 3 Elite User's Paradise
• Low potentials for Nordic applications, since
  scenario depicted a polarized user group world.
• Greens smart training dual online-offline
  spontaneous networks
• Scenario 4 Big Business Lock-In
• Scenario described a somewhat of a
  business-as-usual situation, where big ICT
  players dominate the developments in ICT. This
  scenario seemed to favour ICT applications for
  entertainment and leisure.
• Greens enhanced reality games, all-sensors
  sports events, common Nordic health market,
  closed and safe Internet intelligent
  distributed data storage
• Reds Spontaneuos networks, personal healthcard,
  common Nordic market for health applications
  security system for local neighbourhoods

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Four thematic roadmaps were created in different
scenario settings
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Structure of the roadmapping workshop
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Natural sciences
Nano research
Science and education
Nano backlash compare genetics
Design products
Structure and colour changing clothes, positioning
Standardized software
INTELLIGENT PAPER
INTELLIGENT WALLPAPER
Changing landscape walls
Technology
RFID's basic technologies
INTELLIGENT FABRICS
Illuminating wallpapers
Packages with sensors, basic products
Combinations of fabrics and electronics
Information substitutes paper
Business and industry
Locking the prices
Price lock-in
Market acceptance?
"Undercurrents" - "undernets"
No large consumer markets for intelligent clothes
Children's clothes
Market
Network externalities path dependence
Nichemarkets for "nonintelligent" products
Market acceptance?
Military
Cheap basic technologies
iPod, Apple
Constant positioning and monitoring
"Policy products"
Government procurements of technologies
critical mass, licensing
Govern-ment
Restictions based on intelligent materials
Lock-in breaking policies
Policies promoting interoperability
Short term 15 years
Long term over 10 years
Medium term 510 years
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Documentation
Focus on the positive effects on the individual
well-being
Combination of psych. pedagogic e-learning
research education
How healthcare can be changed / reduced
Scientific documentation of results impacts
Science and education
Focus on the technology as a tool for better care
in the education of professionals
Scientific standards might block initial entrance
of new products
Self-diagnosis preventive healthcare in early
education
INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND PRODUCTS SUPPORTING
SELFCARE, DIAGNOSIS AND MONITORING
Broad range of sensor, communication database
technologies
User-friendly interfaces
Technologies that use all senses
Service automation
Replacing or supporting human care with ICT?
Technology
Combinations of technologies and social
innovations
Counselling decision support systems
Verification for alarm status (avoidance of false
alarms)
Business and industry
"Nordic platform" for testing new applications
Alarm systems (type "I need help now") exist
already
Focus on demographic driven products (demand from
home care)
"Nordic health support" - established as a
reference for individual care and support
Research funding for small business development
Insurance companies support
New products in existing market channels, like
pharmacies
Culture dependent products Nordic platforms and
other market variants
Better contextual understanding empowerment of
citizens
Demanding market for self diagnosis / sefl-care
Market
Private user market
Stimulate pilot products and system by research
and development
Support for cost-effective self-care systems
(driver)
Government and insurance market
Seed money for starting new business
Govern-ment
Defining the border between professional medical
care and self-care
Regulation for ensuring privacy (secure
confidential information)
Professional doctors might not want laymen to
decide on health issues
Standard setting on different levels
Regulations for selling / exporting diagnostic
products etc.
Short term 15 years
Long term over 10 years
Medium term 510 years
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Simulation for development
A new kind of driver's licence
Science and education
Simulation labs for certificate
How to further collective traffic solutions in
public opinion?
PERSONAL TRAFFIC AGENT FOR SECURITY
Safe architecture to integrate the systems
System integration
Robust traffic network with embedded ICTs
A short-range ad hoc network
A cheaper reflected view eye
Technology
Interface for handling masses of information
Interactive remote control for speed
Tactile devices
Intelligent vehicle pool (Bosses limo-bicycle)
Bill Gates found-ation for energy and transport
BASIC PRODUCT PERSONAL TRAFFIC AGENT
Business and industry
Pilot logistic management
MS Windows for cars
Export?
Sell safety less pollution, energy time
efficiency
"Trust mark" -scheme
Market level
Exchange market for agents
Take part in standards early
Price regulation in order to decrease traffic and
to optimize it
Govern-ment
'0' -vision
Energy crises for political reasons
UN try to push an energy convention
Limitations in movement
Short term 15 years
Long term over 10 years
Medium term 510 years
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Examples of proposed actions in experience economy
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Policy recommendations and the lessons learned
implementation strategies (1/2)

• Creation of Nordic SME-based competence clusters
  and/or platforms in converging technological
  niches.
• (1) Sensor-based enhanced reality systems
• (2) Intelligent buildings and home automation
• (3) Development of mobile digital management
  applications especially for the production
  systems.
• Enhancing the utilisation of mobile ICT
  infrastructures for remote monitoring.
• Initiative for the creation and integration of
  Nordic test markets for ICT applications and ICT
  policies in the health sector.
• (1) Creation of a Nordic test market concept
• (2) Applications of distance medicine
• (3) Formation of a common Nordic health card

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Policy recommendations and the lessons learned
implementation strategies (2/2)

• Nordic level research and policy initiative to
  develop new ICT-based concepts for information
  and general security.
• The ideation and creation of new business models
  for the user-driven application developments.
• Advanced micro-payment systems and business
  concepts linked to user-generated products and
  business models
• The Nordic initiative to enhance electronic
  business transactions and applications.

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Policy recommendations and the lessons learned
adaptive strategies

• Towards a deeper understanding of the cultural
  contexts of new services and solutions.
• Learning to utilise and productise innovations in
  the second or the third wave.
• Widen the scope of innovation and learning to
  recycle the ideas into new niches.
• Creating strategies for the utilisation of a
  long tail in the Nordic sphere.

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Policy recommendations and the lessons learned
project in a SECI model
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Policy recommendations and the lessons learned
some impacts and influence paths

• The foresight project contributed to the project
  partners RD activities and strategic
  intelligence
• Participation in the foresight project extended
  the project partners networks and directed
  interest areas
• The foresight workshops provided an opportunity
  to reflect on own ideas in a relatively safe
  discussion forum
• The foresight workshops provided an arena to test
  different foresight methodologies
• The project allowed the core partners to
  experiment with combining different methods
• The foresight project contributed to shared
  understandings among the key Nordic actors
• The foresight workshops produced visions of ICTs
  in the Nordic area and created strategic
  knowledge about ICTs in the Nordic region.

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Thank you!

• Toni Ahlqvist
• Senior Research Scientist
• VTT
• Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment
• 020 722 4260
• 040 573 7398
• toni.ahlqvist_at_vtt.fi