September 7, 2006

1
Unidata Policy Committee NOAA/NWS Status

• September 7, 2006
• LeRoy Spayd
• Chief, Operations and Requirements Division
• Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
• NOAAs National Weather Service

2
Outline

• Storm-based Warnings
• Radiosonde vs Aircraft Water Vapor observations
• Analysis of Record
• Digital Services
• NWS Budget

3
From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings
Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of
severe thunderstorms

• More specific
• Increased clarity
• Supports newdissemination technology

County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under
warning Almost 1 million people warned
Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70 less area
covered 600,000 fewer people warned
4
Storm-Based Warnings Provide Improved Service
Strong circulation within line of severe
thunderstorms
Tornado warning area based on storm without
regard to county boundaries
In the current system, six full counties are
warned. Storm-Based Tornado Warnings provide
much improved service.
5
Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid
Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers
Storm-based warnings would save the public a
minimum of 100 million dollars a year in
reduction of the cost of sheltering - Dr. Dan
Sutter Professor of Economics
Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex is
correctly omitted from this Storm-Based tornado
warning. New siren system selectively activated.
6
Partner Acceptance of Storm-Based Tornado Warnings
Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC
affiliate in Kansas City, MO. WFO Kansas
City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning (blue) then upgraded to a Tornado Warning
(red).
7
Current County-Based Verification System

• Tornado warning forCounties A, B, C, and D
  equals four warnings.
• Tornado occurs in County A.
• False alarms for Counties B, C, and D.

County D
County C
County B
County A
ConfirmedTornado at 0030Z
County-Based VerificationFalse Alarm Rate (FAR)
75 Probability of Detection 100
8
Current County-Based Verification System
County-Based VerificationLead Time (LT) 18.3
minutes (102025 / 3) Probability of Detection
100 False Alarm Rate 25
9
Dissemination of Storm-Based Warnings

• Those who access warnings via television,
  Internet, PDAs, and other GIS-enabled services
  will benefit.
• A recent NSF study shows a majority of Americans
  obtain weather information via these sources.
• We already use directional delimiters (based on
  the location of the storm) in verbal and
  text-based products.
• A Tornado Warning is in effect for Southwestern
  Montgomery County
• Planning ongoing to fully utilize these benefits
  in NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) and Emergency Alert
  System.
• NWR Improvement Project specifies need for
  geo-targeting specific radio transmitters.

10
Regional In Situ SoundingsRadiosonde/WV Aircraft
Obs

• In FY06-07
• Evaluate model response to water-vapor sensor
  derived data
• Evaluate implications of
• forecasters using different data source and,
• reaction of broader US weather enterprise.
• Use evaluation to develop plan for implementation
  
• In FY08 Begin eliminating redundant capability
  for weather observations

11
Future Directions Commercial Aircraft
Observations

• Now
• 25 WVSSII sensors on United Parcel Service B-757
  aircraft since March 2005 (NOAA)
• 60 TAMDAR sensors on Mesaba Saab 340 Aircraft
  since January 2005 (NASA)
• Sept 06 NOAA RFP for Water Vapor Data from
  Commercial Aircraft
• FY07-08 NOAA Phase I contract for sensor
  installation and data collection
• FY08-12 NOAA Phase II contract for expanded
  sensor installation and data collection
• Bottom Line
• Potential for significant increase in atmospheric
  soundings from regional and larger airports ex.
  Each Southwest Airlines has 450 B-737s, each
  aircraft has about 8 destinations per day or 16
  soundings opportunities 7200 soundings
• Expansion of parameters from aircraft include
  water vapor, turbulence (EDR), and icing. Some
  proto-typing effort for air quality measurements
  (European MOZAIC Program)
• Enhanced data monitoring/QA providing RMSE and
  bias by tail

12
Adaptive Sounding Strategy Notional Plan

• Use alternative sounding from commercial aircraft
  if WV instrumented aircraft has a scheduled
  ascent or descent at an airport which is within
• XX miles of radiosonde site
• YY minutes of radiosonde valid time
• CONOPS
• Lead Meteorologist at closest WFO coordinates
  sounding strategy
• Short (notices disseminated indicating product
  availability and associated WMO Heading and
  circuits
• Soundings from aircraft publicly available in
  near real-time
• Alternative sounding strategy limited to
• 1 of 2 sounding launches per radiosonde station
  (initially)
• CONUS Non-GUAN stations
• Outcomes
• 4M/yr in cost avoidance from radiosonde
  expendables
• Redundant observations eliminated
• Greater of Data Requirements Achieved

13
Adaptive Sounding Strategy Weather Enterprise
Input

• A few questions
• How do you currently use radiosonde
  observations?
• What do you know about atmospheric observations
  from commercial aircraft?
• What transition issues might you have with use
  of aircraft observations as an alternative to
  radiosonde observations?
• How can NOAA best communication data quality
  issues associated with aircraft observations?
• How does the proposed adaptive sounding strategy
  timeline impact you?
• How can we recruit Weather Enterprise contacts
  to answer these and other issues associated with
  the Adaptive Sounding Strategy???

14
Questions and Comments David Helms Office of
Science and Technology NOAAs National Weather
Service Bldg SSMC2, Rm 15334 Mail Code
W/OST12 1315 East-West Highway Silver Spring,
Maryland 20910 Email david.helms_at_noaa.gov Phone
301-713-3557 x193
AMDAR Observations
34K Reports in 12 Hours
Radiosonde (purple) and WVSSII (black)
Comparison April 26, 2005
15
The Analysis of Record (AOR)

• Analysis of Record
• A comprehensive set of the best possible analyses
  of the atmospheric variables at high spatial and
  temporal resolution with attention placed on
  weather and climate conditions near the Earths
  surface.

16
The Analysis of Record (AOR) Project Components

• Phase I Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
• A quick analysis using few computer resources.
• Proof of Concept for AOR.
• NCEP EMC and GSD volunteered to build first
  phase.
• Phase II Analysis of Record (AOR)
• A delayed, comprehensive truth analysis using
  late arriving data and more computer resources.
• Phase III The Reanalysis
• A 30 year history of AORs analyzed using AOR
  system.
• Apply the resulting analysis to local climate
  studies.

17
The RTMA

• Description
• RTMA A high-spatial resolution analyses of
  sensible weather variables disseminated to
  forecasters and external users.
• Affordable application of a state-of-the-art
  analysis system.
• Generated by NCEPs 2DVar analysis.
• Available to forecasters at HOUR 43 min goal
  is 35 minutes
• Production and Data
• Initial set of variables produced hourly at 5 km
  resolution temperature (2 m), dew point (2 m),
  wind direction (10 m), wind speed, precipitation
  estimate, sky cover estimate.
• Analysis uncertainty of first four elements
  provided and expressed in same units as surface
  variables.
• Distributed in GRIB 2 by AWIPS SBN as part of OB
  7.2 upgrade.
• Archived at NCDC.
• Uses various data sources (e.g., surface, buoys,
  radar).

18
The RTMAData Resources

• NCEP obtains full compliment of observations
• Conventional observations through the TOC.
• Mesonets through MADIS at GSD.
• MesoWest will be an alternate path to MADIS
  during AOR due to the ability to store and
  forward old data transmitted in bursts from some
  sites.
• RTMA uses several thousand observations.
• Analysis Verification
• Cross-validation
• Withhold small percentage of obs from analysis
• Only way to verify analysis for analysis sake
• Can withhold and internally compare analysis
• Future performance metrics will be based on
  improvement over this Baseline

19
The RTMAAnalysis Scheme

• Reasons the RUC is used as a first guess for RTMA
• Hourly mesoscale analysis.
• Designed to fit observations.
• Full-physics model.
• Assimilation of full mesonet observations, except
  winds.
• Generated by NCEPs 2DVar analysis.
• Downscaled from 13 to 5 km as an extra module at
  end of RUC post-processing code.
• RUC 1-hour is used as RTMA background.
• Why use a 2DVar solution?
• 2DVar is a subset of NCEPs 3DVar GSI (Grid-point
  Statistical Interpolation).
• 2DVar is already running in NAM.
• Anisotropy built into 2D-Var provides way to
  restrict influence of observations on elevation.
  
• 2DVar is fast enough to run in NCEP production
  suite.
• Produce an estimate of analysis uncertainty.

20
The RTMA Schedule

• Milestones and Project Schedule
• Initial, experimental RTMA products generated
  routinely and transmitted through NOAAPort
  August 2006
• RTMA survey results compiled and analyzed
  Second Quarter FY 2007
• Operational testing and acceptance completed
  Second Quarter FY 2007
• Start OCONUS development, if funding is
  available First Quarter FY 2007
• Start development of additional meteorological
  parameters, if funding is available First
  Quarter FY 2007
• Implement OCONUS RTMA, if funding is available
  FY 2008.
• Implement training Second Quarter FY 2007

21
RTMA 2 m Temperature Analysis
22
RTMA Summary

• RTMA provides an affordable solution for an
  NDFD-matching verification.
• Enhanced analysis of surface weather variables
  available for situational awareness and other
  operational applications.
• Provides a proof-of-concept for main AOR with
  applications for other NOAA offices.
• Transfer of the RTMA to operational status will
  greatly increase the daily usage in operations
  and is the next important step in the RTMA
  evolution.

23
Information Sources

• RTMA Evaluation Web Site
• http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rtma/
• Established by EMCs Geoff Manikin (January 2006)
• 7 geographical sub-regions displayed
• NE, DC, FL, MW, TX, NW and SW
• RTMA experimental hourly sky product is displayed
  at http//www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/goes
  /sdpi/html
• RTMA precipitation estimate graphics are at
• http//wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpanl/

24
Current CapabilityNDFD

• Experimental elements
• QPF
• Snow Amount
• Sky Cover
• Significant Wave Height
• Wind gust added 09/06/06

• Operational elements
• Maximum Temperature
• Minimum Temperature
• Temperature
• Dew Point
• Probability of Precipitation
• Weather
• Wind Direction
• Wind Speed
• Apparent Temperature
• Relative Humidity
• Derived fields

Operational experimental elements available for
CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii,
Guam
25
HAWAII NDFD
26
Alaska grids

• New experimental elements for Alaska added
  09/06/06
• Max Temp
• Min Temp
• POP12
• Significant Wave Heights
• Wind Speed
• Wind Direction

27
Probabilistic Winds Operational

• Graphical
• Text
• Experimental in the NDFD

28
Probabilistic Storm Surge Experimental

• www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/
• Two choices
• Overall chance storm surges will be greater than
  5 feet above normal tide levels during the next 2
  days

Pre Katrina
Mainland Mississippi
Post Katrina

• Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide
  level, which have a 10 percent chance of being
  exceeded during the next 3 days

29
Experimental storm surge
30
Extreme Wind Warning

• http//www.weather.gov/os/hurricane/eww.htm
• Purpose
• New for 2006
• Extreme Wind Warning Product
  for 2007
• Beyond 2007

31
NWS Budget

• FY06 enacted - 826M (cumulative shortfall
  of 51M in operations)
• FY 07 PB - 882M
• 38 M for operations (shortfall reduced to
  30M)
• 18 M for systems
• FY 07 House Mark - 885 M
• FY 07 Senate Mark - 927 M
• Earmarks - 15 M
• NDBC - 28 M