Verification of the ARPS Model Forecast of Sea Breeze Related Cloud Systems

1
Verification of the ARPS Model Forecast of Sea
Breeze Related Cloud Systems

• Jaclyn Shafer
• Department of Marine and Environmental Systems
• Florida Institute of Technology
• Melbourne, Florida
• July 20, 2005

2
Overview

• The ARPS Model
• Other ARPS Verification Studies
• Cloud Base Height Study
• Review

3
The ARPS Model

• What is ARPS?
• Advanced Regional Prediction System
• Forecasts in 30 minute Intervals
• 20 Vertical Pressure Levels

4
Other ARPS Verification Studies

• Convective Initiation J. Bellemore
• ARPS Prediction of Position and Timing
• Sea Breeze Front K. Howell
• Evaluation of NAM and ARPS

5
Convective Initiation Study
June 14, 2005
ARPS Radar Reflectivity Prediction
Observed Radar Imagery
230 pm Forecast
630 pm
6
Sea Breeze Front Study
June 16, 2005
NAM Convergence Forecast
ARPS Convergence Forecast
200 pm
200 pm
7
Cloud Base Height Study

• What is a Cloud Base?
• Why is the Model Cloud Base Height Prediction
  Important?
• Aviation
• Military Operations
• Storm Development

8
Cloud Base Height StudyDetermining Cloud Base
Height
9
Cloud Base Height StudyDetermining Cloud Base
cont
INSERT SOUNDING
10
Cloud Base Height StudyDetermining ARPS Cloud
Base Height Predictions
Example of ARPS file
11
Study Locations
Indialantic Beach
A1A
Maps Courtesy of Terra Server
12
(No Transcript)
13
(No Transcript)
14
Cloud Base Height StudyConclusions

• June 8, 2005
• ARPS Predicted 1000 meters Higher than Observed
• Poor Prediction
• June 16, 2005
• Times from IRT and ARPS Did Not Overlap
• Inconclusive

15
Review

• Other ARPS Verification Studies
• Convective Initiation
• ARPS Very Good at Predicting Positions
• Early 1 to 4 hours
• Sea Breeze Front Study
• ARPS Depicted Front Better than NAM
• Cloud Base Height Study
• ARPS Predicted Higher than Observed

16
Acknowledgements

• Jonathan Bellemore Convective Initiation
• Kyle Howell Sea Breeze Front
• National Weather Service ARPS Model

Any Questions?
Daniel Tyndall