Plans for the prediction of extreme events at MeteoSwiss

1
Plans for the prediction of extreme events at
MeteoSwiss
Workshop on short-range ensemble prediction using
limited-area models, Madrid, 3-4 October 2002

• André Walser, Marco Arpagaus
• Jean Quiby, Christof Appenzeller, Pièrre Eckert
• MeteoSwiss

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COSMO-LEPS

• COSMO-LEPS simulations for selected extreme
  events in the Alpine region
• Setting up post-processing routines for
  evaluation and comparison of probabilistic
  forecast products
• Close collaboration with the colleagues at
  ARPA-SMR in Bologna

3
Short-range adaptation of COSMO-LEPS
Start of COSMO-LEPS integrations
COSMO-LEPS clustering times
short-range clustering times
(96)
153 members
(84)
(72)
day
4
Short-range adaptation of COSMO-LEPS
Start of COSMO-LEPS integrations
COSMO-LEPS clustering times
short-range clustering times
number of RMs?
? members
horizontal resolution?
day
5
Inter-comparison

• Inter-comparison of
• short-range adaptation of COSMO-LEPS
• dedicated neural network
• Is dynamical (LEPS) or statistical (neural
  network) down-scaling of the ECMWF EPS
  information superior?
• Are the down-scaling methods more skilful than
  the ECMWF EPS itself (probabilistic model output
  extreme forecast index)?