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Toward Prediction of Relativistic Electron Environment in Geospace

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Toward Prediction of Relativistic Electron Environment in Geospace Tsutomu Nagatsuma, K. Sakaguchi, S. Saito, M. Kunitake, and K. T. Murata National Institute of ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Toward Prediction of Relativistic Electron Environment in Geospace


1
Toward Prediction of Relativistic Electron
Environment in Geospace
  • Tsutomu Nagatsuma, K. Sakaguchi, S. Saito, M.
    Kunitake, and K. T. Murata
  • National Institute of Information and
    Communications Technology
  • Applied Electromagnetic Research Institute
  • Space Weather and Environment Informatics
    Laboratory

SuperDARN 2011 Workshop 2011/05/30-06/04
2
Space Weather and Environment Informatics
Laboratory
ISES RWC Tokyo
Real-time space weather simulator
Every afternoon, we make a daily forecast by the
meeting.
Broadcasting of SWx information on the Web,
e-mail, etc.
3
Space Weather and Environment Informatics
Laboratory The 3rd 5-Year Plan (2011-2015)
Space Weather Research based on merging among
observation, simulation and informatics
Prediction of space environment around GEO
Prediction of ionospheric disturbances
Development of relativistic electron environment
prediction model and high-precision Global MHD
simulation ? Prediction of space environment
(keVMeV particles) around GEO
Development of near-real time prediction system
for generation and propagation of equatorial
plasma bubble and high-precision ionospheric
simulation including atomospheric and
magnetospheric interactions ?1 hour ahead of
Ionospheric disturbance forecast
4
Is it necessary for predicting space environment
around GEO?
  • More than 300 satellites exist in GEO
  • 24 Japanese satellites in GEO

Numbers of satellite anomalies in GEO during 1987
1994 (from NOAA database) 400500
More than 60 satellite anomaly events happened in
each year
GEO is important for communications,
broadcasting, and meteorological monitoring
5
Classifications of Satellite Anomaly
More than half satelliteanomalies are caused by
electrostatic discharge
6
Two major charging phenomena related to satellite
anomaly ?Deep dielectric charging ?Surface
charging
Deep dielectric charging
Surface Charging
Injection related to substorms
Accelerations of relativistic electrons
GEO Satellite
Constructing prediction model of relativistic
electron flux
Constructing prediction model of substorm
injection based on Global MHD simulation
  • Requirement for NICTs space weather information
    by satellite operating companies
  • Observation data and simulation results during
    previous satellite anomalies period are important
    for investigation
  • Surface charging problem is improved for
    new-generation satellite. However, prediction of
    surface charging is still important for
    old-generation satellite.
  • Prediction of deep dielectric charging is
    important for next declining phase of 24th solar
    cycle.

7
Example of satellite anomaly at GEO- cases from
B-SAT (http//www5e.biglobe.ne.jp/kazu_f/digita
l-sat/satellite.html )
  • BSAT-2a(Orbital SciencesStar Bus)
  • 2001/09/25 anomaly of attitude control SEU due to
    Proton Event?
  • 2001/11/07 anomaly of attitude control SEU due to
    Proton Event?
  • 2004/02/14 anomaly of transponder(Bs-15ch) Deep
    dielectric charging due to REE?
  • 2005/08/19 anomaly of command receiver Deep
    dielectric charging due to REE? 
  • BSAT-2c(Orbital SciencesStar Bus)
  • 2008/09/11 anomaly of transponder(BS-3ch) Deep
    dielectric charging due to REE? 
  • 2008/09/14 anomaly of transponder(BS-13ch Deep
    dielectric charging due to REE? 
  • BAST-3a(Lockheed Martin Commercial Space
    SystemsA2100A Bus)
  • 2010/08/24 BSAT-3a temporal attitude anomaly
    unknown

8
Feb. 14, 2004 (BSAT-2a anomaly of BS-15ch
transponder) relativistic electron enhancement
Solar X-ray flux
IMF Intensity
IMF Bz
Vsw
Density
High energy proton flux
Relativistic electron flux at GEO
Kakioka K index
9
Radiation belt dynamics
Relationship between satellite anomalies and
relativistic electron flux
Thick line anomaly period 5 days Dash line
average level
Halloween event
Rising phase
Solar maximum
Important period For prediction
Declining phase
Now
Solar activities(Black)
????
Cycle 23
Cycle 24
Relativistic electron flux
Rising
Solar Maximum
Declining
10
ULF-ELF waves plays an important role for supply
and loss of relativistic electrons - Application
of ground-based observation data -
Pc5-6 -gt supply of relativistic electrons (radial
diffusion, adiabatic acceleration)
Pc1 -gt loss of relativistic electrons (pitch
angle scattering)
Balance between supply and loss controls
variations of relativistic electrons -gt
possibility of prediction of relativistic
electrons using ULF waves
11
NICTs Space Weather Monitoring Networks
(NICT-SWM)
Magnetometer
HF radar
Magnetometer HF radar observations in Far East
Siberia
South-East Asia low latitude IOnospheric Network
(SEALION)
Domestic Ionosonde Network Hiraiso Solar
Observatory
Ionosonde
Ionospheric observation at Syowa Base
Hiraiso Solar Observatory
12
Monitoring magnetic field variations at Russian
auroral sector based on the collaboration among
Russia (AARI, IDG), Japan (NICT, Kyoto-U), and
USA (JHU/APL)
(77.72,104.28)
(70.09,170.93)
(73.50,80.60)
(71.58?129.00)
(69.80?88.13)
13
INTERMAGNET
  • International consortium for geomagnetic
    observatory (now 104 observatories are
    participated) We play a role of real-time data
    exchange in Asian sector with WDC Kyoto.

14
NICT_MAG
  • Monitoring magnetic field variation mainly around
    Japanese meridian sector which Rapid MAG and
    INTERMAGNET does not cover

15
SuperDARN(King Salmon)
King Salmon
  • Radar observation network for monitoring polar
    ionospheric convection. We operate HF radar at
    King Salmon, Alaska for montoring auroral and
    subauroral plasma flow.

16
However, azimuthal Pc5 plasma oscillations
observed by KSR is not clearly correlated with
geomagnetic pulsations on the ground and in
geostationary orbit
2011/06/01(Thu.) 1030-1050 Comparison of
ionospheric azimuthal Pc5 plasma oscillations
with geomagnetic pulsations on the ground and in
geostationary orbit, by Sakaguchi et al.
17
Research Plan of practical radiation belt model
Precipitation
Current radiation belt simulation only for 2MeV
electrons
Atmospheric loss(installed)
Will be installed
MPS
Whistler EMIC
Magnetopause shadowing (installed)
ULF
Will be installed
Futureconstructing prototype of relativistic
electron flux prediction
Global MHD
Empirical model based on NICTs observation
network data
Introducing non- stationary background magnetic
field from Global MHD simulation
GEO
18
Thank You!
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