Investigation of Complex River System Operational Policy Modeling Obstacles and Solutions

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Investigation of Complex River
SystemOperational Policy Modeling Obstacles
and Solutions James VanShaarRiverside
Technology, inc.(TVA Flood Control Operations
EIS Model)
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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Purpose
• To determine if changes in reservoir system
  operating policies could create greater overall
  public value

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Purpose
• To determine if changes in reservoir system
  operating policies could create greater overall
  public value
• System
• Integrated system provides multiple benefits
• Trade-offs create competing demands for use of
  water
• Stakeholders have different views on priorities

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Purpose
• To determine if changes in reservoir system
  operating policies could create greater overall
  public value
• System
• Integrated system provides multiple benefits
• Trade-offs create competing demands for use of
  water
• Stakeholders have different views on priorities
• Plan
• Two-year Reservoir Operations Study initiated
• Any and all uses of the water that flows through
  the reservoir system and all aspects of the
  current operating policies

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background
Issues

• Flood risk
• Water quality
• Economic
• Environmental
• Cultural
• Navigation
• Water supply
• Recreation (reservoir and downstream)
• Hydropower and non-hydropower generation
• Public values on the use of water
• Support of other federal agencies

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps
• 36 dams and 14 damage centers

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps
• 36 dams and 14 damage centers
• 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps
• 36 dams and 14 damage centers
• 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x

Lather. Rinse. . .
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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps
• 36 dams and 14 damage centers
• 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
• Alternative Scenarios
• Modify for alternative operational policy
• Repeat for 5 alternative operational policies.

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps
• 36 dams and 14 damage centers
• 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
• Alternative Scenarios
• Modify for alternative operational policy
• Repeat for 5 alternative operational policies.

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RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background

• Base Case Simulation
• 99 years at 6 hour timestep 144k timesteps
• 36 dams and 14 damage centers
• 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
• Alternative Scenarios
• Modify for alternative operational policy
• Repeat for 5 alternative operational policies.
• Analysis
• Extract seasonal and annual peak flow / pool /
  stage
• Compare Alternatives against Base Case
• If necessary, combine / revise alternatives.
  Repeat.

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Model Design Major Concerns

• Run-time
• Model size
• Accuracy of policy representation
• Decision tracking debugging, calibration,
  reproduction
• Extensibility to alternatives

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Model Design Power production rule set

• Generic Tributary Algorithms
• Applied to virtually all non-sloped power
  reservoirs
• Foundation of all operation policy
• Quarantined deviation code for non-conformist
  projects

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Model Design Power production rule set

• Mainstem Fixed Rule (sloped-power reservoir)
• Acceptable discharge vs. pool elevation
  operational points

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Model Design Power production rule set

• Mainstem Fixed Rule (sloped-power reservoir)
• Acceptable discharge vs. pool elevation
  operational points
• Recovery mode
• Fixed rule curve abandonment

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Model Design Power production rule set
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Model Design Power production rule set

• Results of rule set design
• Carefully tested, compact, reused code base
• Eliminated re-firing of rules
• Decision variables stored
• Limited re-solution of objects
• Individual policy relegated to parameters, not
  logic

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Model Application System Segmentation

• Space

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Model Application System Segmentation
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Model Application System Segmentation

• Space
• Four Models
• Reuse of power rule set
• Time

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Model Application Control and Data Management
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Model Application Control and Data Management
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Model Application Control and Data Management
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Model Application Control and Data Management

• Control Algorithm For each successive run
  period--
• Modify TSTool and RiverWare batch control files
• Run TSTool initialization commands
• Access archived data
• Locate RiverWare input in expected directory
• Run RiverWare using its control file
• Import data
• Simulation
• Export data
• Save model with new name
• Run TSTool archival commands
• Store results in archive time series files

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Model Application Control and Data Management

• Design Storms
• Apply revised control algorithm for each storm
• Revision includes consideration for
• Appropriate initial data
• Storage location of new archival data

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Model Application Results of Approach

• Flexibility
• Debugging
• Event isolation
• Run-time
• Consistency throughout alternatives
• Built-in archival of runs / models / decisions
• Elimination of model size concerns

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Alternative Scenarios Alternative
Operational Scenario Flood Frequency and Damage
Curves
Dollars of Damage
Percent Exceedance
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Conclusion
Thank you for your time and attention. Any
Questions?
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Thank you.
Fall Creek Falls, TN