Trends in World Food and Nutrition: Implications for International Assistance

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Trends in World Food and Nutrition Implications
for International Assistance

• APO
• KUNIO TSUBOTA

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Remarkable progress despite doubled population
World Population projection (UN) 2015 7,197
million 2050 8,918
Populationmillion, DES Kcal/day, GDPUS (1995
constant), life expectancy year
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Hunger Declined but with considerable regional
variation
Undernourished population in Developing Regions
(million)
504
600
500
267
400
Millions
300
89
54
45
200
241
284
100
1969-71
180
1979-81
0
1990-92
53
East and South
33
East Asia
South Asia
1995-97
Latin America and
Near East and
Sub-Saharan
Africa
the Caribbean
North Africa
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Projection for 2030Kcal per caput per day
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Number of Undernourished 2030
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Composition of food developing countries
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Projection for 2030Annual crop production
growth,
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Crop yield projection 2030
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MiIlennium Goals highlight poverty hunger
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WFS Target unlikely to be met
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Widening Gap Dietary energy intake by country
group
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
KCal/Day/pc
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1961
1970
1980
1990
1999
Source FAO
Least Developed
Low-Income
World
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Poverty and hunger in 1970 and 2000 Improved on
average but hotspots left behind
Calorie intake/caput
3000
East Asia
L-America
2000
S-E Asia
S-Asia
2000
1970
S-S Africa
GDP/caput
13
Who are suffering from hunger?
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Who are left behind?Poverty/hunger factors
interlocked
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Agriculture offers a majority of workplaces in
developing countries
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But rough road ahead

• agriculture and rural development remain
  important for poverty and hunger reduction but
  tasks ahead seem more complicated and difficult
  than ever because
• Hotspots are concentrating more on the specific
  regions/ specific groups of people,
• Productivity gap is widening as technology
  advances,
• Global market tends to penalize poor farmers
  more,
• International support is declining, and inter
  alia,
• Fundamentals for growth have not been generated
  yet

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Productivity differences widen due to
technological development
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World Commodity Prices
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Green revolution visited East and South-East Asia
but not fully South Asia and at all yet Africa
3.50
East South East Asia
3.00
2.50
South Asia
2.00
Grain Yield ton/ha
1.50
Sub-Sahara South Africa
1.00
0.50
0.00
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
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ODA for Agriculture has been
declining both in value and
40,000
50
45
35,000
40
30,000
35
25,000
30
20,000
25
US Millions
20
15,000
15
10,000
10
5,000
5
0
0
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
Agricultural ODA
Share of Agriculture in total
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Most successful countries Stories vary
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Strategy for effective assistance(for SS Africa,
SW Asia)

• Make best effort for peace and social stability
• Avoid investment assistance that can be
  destructed by the civil strife and bad governance
  and policies
• Concentrate more on capacity building of rural
  poor through HRD, RD, and extension
• More efforts to increase local staples/livestock
  (research,TA)
• Strengthen group activities and social safety net
  through community development
• Encourage knowledge sharing among themselves for
  generating new, active, self-relying mind-set.
• Utilize more non-governmental channels including
  NGOs

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Strategy for effective assistance(for other
developing regions)

• Encourage economic growth, market reform
• diversification of rural activities and Promote
  better processing and marketing
• TA for reducing risks such as avian influenza
• Concentrate more on capacity building of rural
  poor through HRD, RD, and extension
• Strengthen group activities and social safety net
  through community development.
• Promote sustainable agricultural practices
• Improve rural infrastructure
• Utilize more non-governmental channels including
  NGOs and private sectors

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It is humankind that is responsible for having
imposed hunger on itself for so long, but
humankind is also capable of eliminating this
burden (SOFA 2000)
FIN
APOTsubota