CARIBBEAN TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

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CARIBBEAN TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

• Christa G. von Hillebrandt-Andrade
• Puerto Rico Seismic Network
• Dept. of Geology, UPR-Mayagüez
• Updated May 25, 2007

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Acknowledgements

• FAHUM Sponsors and Organizing Committee
• Dedicated Staff and Students at PRSN
• Prof. Aurelio Mercado, Marine Science Dept. at
  UPRM
• Local and Subregional Seismic Network Operators
  in the Caribbean
• Local and State Emergency Management Officials,
  Puerto Rico
• PTWC (Dr. Charles McCreery), WCATWC (Dr. Paul
  Whitmore)
• ITIC (Dr. Laura Kong)
• NWS, NOAA
• NOS, NOAA
• IOC/ICG-CTWS
• IOCARIBE
• Group of Experts on Tsunamis, Dr. George Maul,
  Chair
• Financial Support
• University of Puerto Rico
• Government of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico
• FEMA
• Sea Grant
• NOAA
• NSF

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Outline

• Justification of CTWS
• Structure of CTWS
• Hazard Research
• Monitoring, Detection Systems and Tsunami Warning
  Guidance
• Communications and Dissemination
• Preparedness, Readiness, Resilience
• Conclusions
• Q A

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Since 1530, 95 Tsunamis Have been observed in the
Caribbean
Fatalities Due to Tsunamis Date
Place Fatalities 1692 Jamaica 2000 1842
Haiti 300 1853 Venezuela
600-4000 1867 Virgin Islands 23 1882
Panama 75-100 1907 Jamaica 500 1918
Puerto Rico 140 1946 Dominican Republic(1)
1790 1946 Dominican Republic(2) 75
TOTAL 5503 to 8928

• Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year
  History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin
  and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003
  edition) and Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC,
  2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, 3, pg
  120 and NGDC, 2006.

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Tsunami deaths since 1842 in two key areas, the
northeastern Pacific (Alaska, Hawaii, West Coast
States) the Caribbean Basin (includes Puerto
Rico US Virgin Islands). The Caribbean basin
with only 1/5 the area has 6x more deaths !
1842-2006 3503 deaths
1842-2006 579 deaths
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The risk from tsunamis has increased dramatically
due to population growth, coastal infrastructure
development and tourism
US Virgin Islands, 1867
US Virgin Islands, today
During high season, there can be as many as
25,000 people arriving on cruise ships during a
day. During low season, as much as 15,000
people/day.
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October 11, 1918 Puerto Rico Earthquake and
Tsunami
R-F Intensity Scale
Modified after Reid and Taber, 1919
2007 Population in TFZ in Mayagüez 20,000
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CTWS Development

• Despite the history and real potential for life
  threatening tsunamis, in the late 80s tsunamis
  were truly a forgotten hazard here and in the
  region. Over the past 10 years there have been
  the following significant milestones
• 1996. IOCARIBE Group of Experts on Tsunami is
  established
• 1997. The UPRM, Sea Grant and PR Emergency
  Management Agency sponsor the first Caribbean
  Tsunami Workshop in Mayagüez, Puerto Rico.

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Cont.

• 2000. FEMA gives initial funding to begin the
  Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation
  Program
• 2001. IOC endorses the IOCARIBE proposal for an
  IAS Tsunami Warning System developed by the Group
  of Experts (Dr. George Maul)
• 2003. Tsunami Warning Protocol Workshop is held
  in Mayagüez. PTWC is assigned to advise PR on
  significant earthquakes. WCATWC Early Bird
  System Installed in PRSN.
• 2004. The Indian Ocean Tsunami.

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Intergovernmental Coordinating Group for the
Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System
for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG-C)

• UNESCO/IOC body
• 30 member states, commonwealths, territories
• Established in 2005
• Sessions held in 2006 and 2007

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End to End CTWS

• Member States designate
• Tsunami National Contacts (government authority,
  represent the MS at meetings and coordinate
  national tsunami working groups)
• Tsunami Warning Focal Points (institution with
  24/7 operations for at minimum to receive and
  disseminate the tsunami event messages)
• A delegate in each of the working groups (four
  thrust areas of the System)
• Hazard assessment
• Monitoring, Detection Systems and Warning
  Guidance
• Warning Dissemination and Communication
• Preparedness, Readiness and Resilience.

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Hazard Assessment Identification of the
Tsunamigenic Sources
From U. ten Brink, USGS
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Historical Caribbean Tsunamis
The bars represents the runups of the tsunamis
of up to 6 meters
Source Gusiakov, 2005
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Paleotsunami Deposits, Aguada (630 ybp)
Source Juan Carlos Moya and Aurelio Mercado
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Pre Historic Tsunamis?
8,000 ybp disturbance
References Hubbard D., Ramírez W., Davis A.,
Lawson G., Oram J., K Parsons., Cuevas D. and Del
Coro M. (2004) A preliminary model of Holocene
coral-reef development in the Enriquillo Valley,
SW Dominican Republic. Geological Society of
America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 36, No. 5,
p. 313. Cuevas D., Ramírez W., Del Coro M., and
Hubbard D. (2004) Assessment of the response of a
Holocene fossil coral reef to high sediment
input Implications to modern trends of reef
degradation in high sedimentation environments.
Geological Society of America Abstracts with
Programs, Vol. 36, No. 5, p. 291.
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Other Caribbean Tsunamigenic Sources, Also Mostly
short-fused

• Subaerial and Submarine Landslides
• Subaerial Volcanoes- Soufriere Hills, Montserrat
• Submarine Volcanoes-Kick em Jenny
• Tele-tsunami (e.g. Lisbon Nov. 1, 1755)
• Impacts

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Preparation of Tsunami Inundation Maps Need to
develop and expand local capabilities for tsunami
inundation mapping in the Caribbean.
Tsunami Inland Flood Limit for Mayagüez,PR
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NSF Sponsored Research

• Wave basin at OSU
• Tsunami validation modeling
• Tsunami resistant construction
• E O Component

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Monitoring Components of Tsunami Warning System

• Seismic monitoring-accurate and timely detection
  and determination and dissemination of
  hypocentral parameters. Initial performance
  criteria messages for all earthquakes M 5 or
  greater within 5 minutes of origin time.
• Sea Level Monitoring
• Tide Gauges-confirmation of tsunami heights and
  arrival times at coastal locations, validate
  tsunami inundation models
• DART Buoys-confirmation of tsunamis and real time
  forecasting of tsunamis
• Other geophysical instrumentation, GPS,
  hydroacoustic sensor developing technology and
  infrastructure.

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Seismic Stations Available in Real Time for the
CTWS
Conributing Networks U. Colima, Mexico RS El
Salvador INETER, Nicaragua OVSICORI, Costa
Rica Baru Network, Panama Montserrat Volcano
Observatory Martinique Volcano Observatory KNMI,
Dutch Antilles Curazao Met Office, Bolivar
Project Puerto Rico Seismic Network Seismological
Institute, DR USGS Caribbean Seismic
Network ANSS-USGS GSN
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Very near future RT stations
USGS
SRU
Cayman Islands Govt.
CTBTO
There are still gaps in RT seismic coverage from
Cuba, Colombia, Haiti, Venezuela and Mexico.
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PRSN/UPR
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NOAADARTBuoys
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Puerto Rico Seismic NetworkEmergent Tsunami
Warning Center
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Example of Regional Caribbean Earthquake
Processed by the PRSN/EB System
First Automatic EarlyBird Location 2006/09/29
131325 ATWC P-Time MESSAGE
2006/09/29 131830 PTWC P-Time MESSAGE
2006/09/29 132230
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MOMENT TENSOR INVERSION
From Huerfano et al, 2007
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Report on local, regional and international
earthquake and dissemination practices.
Event 1 8/14/06 earthquake near USVI/PR, Event
2 9/29/06 earthquake in Trinidad Event 3 2/4/07
earthquake offshore Cuba
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Presently Ongoing Tsunami Modeling Work for NOAA
/ PMEL
From Aurelio Mercado
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Frequency of Expected Earthquakes (past 100 years
lt 7.5, last 500 years gt7.5, Felt events as of
1995)
Sources of information PRSN and USGS
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Tsunami Warning Service Providers

• Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
• Provides Interim Warning Service to Puerto Rico
  and the USVI (US Government)
• Provides Interim Tsunami Warning Guidance Service
  to the non US Caribbean and adjacent regions
• West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
• Backup to the PTWC
• Puerto Rico Seismic Network
• Provides tsunami warning service to Puerto Rico
  and the USVI and BVI during operational hours
  (local governments protocol)
• Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center in the region by
  2010 (resolution ICG-CTWS II).

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Dissemination and Communications

• For most nations, commonwealths and territories
  in the Caribbean it is the local weather service
  officesor emergency management agencies which
  have been designated as the Tsunami Warning Focal
  points. This is due to the fact that these
  institutions have the 24 x 7 operations and
  communication infrastructure to receive and
  disseminate messages.
• At most of these institutions there is no tsunami
  expertise so they need to be trained.
• Mechanisms to reach the public-radio, TV,
  loudspeakers, NOAA Weather Radio (Puerto Rico and
  the USVI)

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Preparedness, Readiness and Resilience
Initiatives need to be taken at the local level
to assure that appropriate actions are taken
before, during and after a tsunami or potential
tsunami event. ICG is also seeking funds to
establish a Caribbean Tsunami Information Center
to facilitate these activities.
Workshops
EQ and Tsunami Drills
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Preparedness, Readiness and Resilience
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Puerto Rico TsunamiReadyPartners
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Concluding Comments

• The implementation of the CTWS is being actively
  pursued in the region.
• The development of the CTWS has really helped
  improve the availability and quality of seismic
  data in the region which is a true asset
• Very important that the infrastructure and
  capabilities of the almost 30 local and
  subregional networks continue to be strengthened.
• Very important that the contributions and the
  authority of the local and regional seismic
  networks be recognized by the CTWS.

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Cont.

• Challenge of determining the critical
  magnitudes, eg. 6.5evacuate, 6.4no evacuation
  for local PR earthquakes 7.5evacuate, 7.4no
  evacuation for regional earthquakes.
• Very important to upgrade the sea level
  infrastructure in the region.
• The establishment of a CTWC, CTIC and ICG
  Secretariat in the region will raise the profile
  of the Caribbean tsunami hazard and risk in the
  region, will help give faster warnings, effective
  advisory service before, during and after and
  event and accessible capacity building platforms
  for the region.
• The CTWS has a multi coastal hazard perspective,
  so as we develop a system that will mitigate the
  effects of tsunamis, we also are developing key
  components for other hazards like storm surges
  and sea level rise, this is especially true with
  the tide gauge component.
• The national and local capabilities for hazard
  and risk assessment, tsunami monitoring and
  warning, dissemination and preparedness.

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Our Mission Avoid this
Gracias, Thank You
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