Planning under Uncertainty John Vink, Chief Defence Planning, NATO C3 Agency

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Planning under UncertaintyJohn Vink, Chief
Defence Planning, NATO C3 Agency
Presentation is NATO UNCLASSIFIED
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Overview

• Defence Planning
• Planning Situations
• Timeframe
• Medium-Term Planning
• Long-Term Planning
• Capability Based Planning
• Continuum
• Summary

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Defence Planning - 1

• DP Domains
• Force
• C3
• Resource
• Logistics
• Armaments
• Nuclear
• Civil Emergency Planning
• Air Defence
• Air Traffic Management
• Military Medical
• Intelligence
• Research Technology
• Standardisation

Not all areas derive Capability
Requirements Some are involved with Capability
Development only
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Defence Planning - 2
Purpose Provide Capabilities to meet
evolving Missions Tasks General Model
Risk Assessments
Need to consider a Comprehensive Approach
Coordinated use of Political, Military, Economic
and Civil power
Political Guidance
Determine Capability Requirements
Review Results
Improving Capabilities
Identify Requirements Prioritize Shortfalls
Solutions
Apportion Requirements
Facilitate Implementation

• Requirements expressed as a Capability to
  accomplish a specific Task
• Also non-mil requirements ATM, transport,
  legal, judicial, etc

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Planning Situations
What Capabilities are needed?
Known Capabilities
Nr of Situations
Defence Planning
Unforeseeable Situations
Ops Planning (Actual Likely)

Advance Plans COP / GCOP
Need to take a global view of the possibilities
CRO OPLAN
Timeframe
Short-
Present
Medium-
Long-Term
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Timeframe - 1
Medium-Term planning to take place in the
Long-Term planning context
Flex

• Qualitative
• Descriptive
• Capabilities
• RT/RD

• Qualitative
• Quantitative
• Specific Solutions

• CRO Urgent
• Requirements

Short-
Present
Medium-
Long-Term
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Timeframe - 2

• Qualitative
• Descriptive
• Capabilities

• Current Capabilities / Inventories / Plans vs
  Uncertainties in the future
• Required Caps change in quantity, quality
  emphasis over time
• Solutions paced by Technology and Resources
• Decisions have Long-Term Impacts

• Qualitative
• Quantitative
• Specific Solutions

• CRO Urgent
• Requirements

Short-
Present
Medium-
Long-Term
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Process Medium-Term (1)

• Missions
• Mil Docs
• ..

• Strategic Concept
• Ministerial Guidance
• DP Assessments
• .

• FSE
• Intel docs
• ..

Political Guidance Tasking
Missions Military Guidance
Security Environment Assessment
Analyses
Disciplines Domains
SCs
..
Future Defence Requirements
Stove-pipes hinder coherence and interoperability
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Process Medium-Term (2)Bi-SC
Risk Assessments

• PS Selection
• Relevance
• Plausibility
• Criticality

PS
Excess

Gap Analysis and Fulfilment
PS
Fulfilled Reqt
. . .
. . .
Mission task decomposition
Unfulfilled Reqt

PS
Solution Development
Planning / Influencing factors
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Factors - Examples
Planning Factors Distance, Size, Intensity,
Austerity Influencing Factors Geography, Type of
entry, Opponent, etc
Representation of degree of variation, e.g.
Intensity Hi/Lo Climate Tropical/Temperate/Arct
ic/Arid
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Process Long-Term
Derivation Process
Key input

• Mission Types
• Planning Situations

• Long-Term Security Trends
• Security trends
• Techn development of concern
• Strategic implications

Mission Analysis

• Future Role of NATO
• Ambition
• Relationships

• Tasks / Effects
• Capabilities

Methodology
Future Worlds
Cap. Analysis

• Future Technology
• Techn trends influencing military capability
  needs presenting opportunities
• Comparison of techn. trends with trends outlined
  in previously defined requirements

Should gel with Medium-Term Planning
Gap Analysis (previously defined vs capability
reqts.)

• Future Concepts / Doctrines
• Summary of developing concepts and future
  implications
• Identification and outline of concepts that need
  to be developed

Prioritization

• Operationally driven capability gaps
• Efficiency driven capability opportunities

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Multiple Futures

• The Multiple Futures Project articulates
  plausible future environments, aiming at
  identifying relevant threats and their Security
  Military implications. The Multiple Futures will
  inform the Defence Planning Process

• Threats
• Security Implications
• Economy
• Immigration
• Destabilisation, etc
• Military Implications
• Enemy caps
• Protection of citizens
• Defend critical infrastructure, etc

Implications
Drivers Study
Futures

• Technology
• Demographics
• Climate, etc

• Future 1
• Future 2
• Future 3, etc

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Capability Based PlanningSystematic process for
planning under uncertainty based on what do we
need to do
CBP is about Confronting Uncertainty, Risks and
Constraints Identifying Options and analyzing
Choices

• Requires
• Commonly understood vocabulary
• Clearly articulated assumptions constraints
• Moves away from suggesting solutions too early in
  the process
• Encourages innovation
• Considers trade-offs between potential solutions
  for a capability requirement
• Gives greater flexibility in meeting requirements
• Audit trail for decision makers

E.g. Changes question from
Options for new artillery How to provide fire
support to land forces
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DOTMLPFI Capability Elements

• Capability defined in MC 550 - MC Guidance for
  the Military Implementation of the CPG.
  Capability as the entirety of a system that
  delivers an output or effect. It will most
  likely be a complex combination of DOTMLPFI
• Doctrine
• Organisation
• Training
• Materiel
• Leadership Development
• Personnel
• Facilities
• Interoperability

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Capability Improvements
Cold War Article V NRF
Stability Reconstruction
Hybrid / Irregular Warfare

• Corps
• Division
• Brigade
• Company
• MN Tac. Units

DOTMLPFI
DOTMLPFI
Defence Planning to capture DOTMLPFI elements
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Adapted DP ProcessShort-, Medium-, Long-Term
Continuum
Adapted DP Process
All Disciplines / Domains Stove-pipes
Lessons Learned

Stove-pipes hinder Coherence and
Interoperability

Present
Short-
Medium-
Long-Term
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Prioritised List(s) of Capability Shortfalls
Mid-Term
Short-Term
Long-Term
Lessons Learned
Opportunities to improve mission effectiveness
interoperability OR Where to make most
difference
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The List
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Summary

• Capability Based Planning
• Risk Assessments
• Future Worlds
• Mission Analyses
• Shortfall Prioritisation
• Challenges
• Continuum
• Stove-pipes
• Acceptable Risk
• Single List