UCLA Energy Forum Leading by Example: Californias Aggressive Energy Goals November 29, 2006

1
UCLA Energy Forum Leading by
ExampleCalifornias Aggressive Energy
GoalsNovember 29, 2006
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Energy Policy

• Long-standing state policies have encouraged the
  use of energy efficiency, renewable resources,
  and natural gas.
• This is the 30th anniversary of energy efficiency
  programs at IOUs.
• Energy Action Plan (EAP/EAP II 2005) developed by
  
• California Energy Commission
• California Public Utilities Commission
• It prescribes a loading order of cost-effective
  resources
• Customer Energy Efficiency
• Demand Response/Dynamic Pricing
• Renewables
• Distributed Generation
• Clean gas-fired plants
• Transmission as needed for efficiency and to
  connect new plants

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Aggressive Energy Goals

• Energy Efficiency
• Nearly 4,500 MW statewide through 2013
• PGE funding 1 billion over 3 years
• Demand Response
• Target of 5 of load by 2007
• Renewables
• State law requires addition of 1 renewables per
  year
• 20 of total energy deliveries target by 2010
• Discussions about expanding goal to 33 by 2020
• Distributed Generation
• Rebates on microturbines, fuel cells, etc.
• Focus on photovoltaics through the California
  Solar Initiative and SB1
• More than 13,000 solar systems connected to
  PGEs grid

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History of Energy Efficiency Key to California
Success
Per Capita Electricity Use
Source California Energy Commission
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Per Capita Electricity Use (2003)
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Energy Efficiency Savings Energy CO2
Blue - Energy Savings
8,000
60
Green GHG Emissions Avoided
7,000
50
6,000
40
5,000
Annual GWh
Cumulative Million Tons CO2
4,000
30
3,000
20
2,000
10
1,000
0
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
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IOU Annual Megawatts Saved Past and Projected
Historical
Targets
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Electricity Savings Targets by California IOU
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Renewable Portfolio Standards How the States
Compare
NV 20 by 2015, solar 5 of annual
ME 30 by 2000
NY 25 by 2013
MN 19 by 2015 (Xcel Energy)
IA 2 by 1999
WI 10 by 2015
MA 4 by 2009 11 annual ?
WA 15 by 2020
MT 15 by 2015
IL 8 by 2013
RI 16 by 2019
CT 10 by 2010
NJ 6.5 by 2008
CO 10 by 2015
DE 10 by 2019
MD 7.5 by 2019
D.C 11 by 2022
CA 20 by 2010
NM 10 by 2011
PA 18 by 2020
AZ 15 by 2025
TX 5,880 MW (4.2) by 2015
HI 20 by 2020
21 States D.C.

• MN has a requirement for one utility, Xcel
  Energy, and a 10 by 2015 renewable energy goal
  for all other utilities. In addition to its
  requirement, IA has a 1,000 MW (10) by 2010
  goal.
• IL has a renewable energy goal, with no
  specific enforcement measures.
• ME allows existing hydro, which currently
  makes up 50 of procured energy for existing
  utilities
• 8 Tier I, 10, Tier II (includes
  non-renewable sources).

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Power Content Label
2005 PGE
2005 California
2004 U.S.
12
Eligible Renewable
11
2.3
5
Biomass and waste
2
0.9
2
Geothermal
5
0.4
4
Small hydroelectric
2
0.6
1
Wind
2
0.4
lt0.1
Solar
0.2
lt0.1
20
Large Hydroelectric
17
7
42
Natural Gas
38
19
1
Coal
20
49
1
Other Fossil
lt1
3
24
Nuclear
15
19
Does not include customer-owned distributed
generation.
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PGEs Electric Power Generation CO2 Emissions
Rate is Among the Lowest in the U.S.
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PGEs RPS Procurement Activities 2002-2006
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Existing California Renewable Generationand
Possible Additions to meet the 20 RPS Goal by
2010

• Data on additional renewable resource is based
  on a current CEC studies on renewables.
• Potential retirements of existing resources
  and repowering projects are not included.

Source California Independent System Operator
Corporation, July 2006
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Renewable Energy Beyond 2010

• Western Governors Association Studies show 30-60
  GW in the Western U.S.
• Geothermal
• CA, NV, OR
• Solar (Central and Distributed)
• CA, NV
• Wind
• CA, OR, WA, ID, BC
• Biomass
• CA, OR
• CA Biogas
• CA Ocean
• Small Hydro
• BC

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Transmission and Renewables Supply Curve

• Transmission is a critical issue to developing
  renewables
• Identified transmission needs have lead to some
  expansion proposals already filed with CAISO

Not Transmission Constrained
/MWh
Total Offers
-
Cumulative GWh
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PGE Actions to Harvest Renewable Resource
Potential

• Promoting tax policy stability
• The industry cant plan expansions with 1-2 year
  tax incentives
• Developing transmission to renewables
• Most major resource areas are inversely
  correlated to population
• Promoting emerging technology development
• Accelerate the time-to-market of promising
  renewable technologies that would
• Open new resources for development
• Drive down the cost of renewable energy

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Diverse and Complementary Resources
Temporal Pattern July 2003 Average Day

• Source CEC PIER-funded study by GE Energy, July
  2006

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Concentrating Solar Thermal

• Dispersed Power Tower technology has the
  potential to be more efficient than original
  trough design
• Mirrors focus sunlight on a central tower, where
  water is heated to generate steam. Steam is used
  to spin a turbine connected to generator.
• Can be dispatchable with gas-fired boiler hybrid
  when solar unavailable1.

Note 1 SB 107 provisions may affect this ability
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Dairy Biogas

• California has 1.7 million cows in 2,100 dairies
• 50 in San Joaquin Valley
• Dairies release methane and other reactive
  organic gases (ROGs)
• Methane has 21 times the greenhouse gas (GHG)
  impact of CO2
• San Joaquin Valley is a non-attainment area for
  air quality, which is affected by ozone created
  by ROGs
• Biogas scrubbed/cleaned of H2S, CO2, etc.,
  pressurized gas injected into pipeline
• Total market size for energy is relatively small,
  but large GHG reduction potential
• Controlling methane releases and
  transporting to cleanest, most efficient
  plant, produces
  RPS-eligible energy and
  GHG credits while improving Valley air
  quality

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Marine Energy

• Wave Energy
• Northern Californias largest untapped renewable
  resource.
• CEC study identified primary and secondary sites
  (see map)
• North Coast has some of the best sites
• Tidal Energy
• Golden Gate best site in U.S.
• FERC issued preliminary permit
• Stream Flow
• Rivers, hydro flumes, irrigation canals

from 2003 CEC study
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California Clean Tech Open

• Inaugural business plan competition in 5
  categories
• Energy Efficiency
• Renewable Energy
• Smart Grid
• Transportation
• Water
• PGE providing cash and in-kind prizes
• PGE among judges in energy efficiency and
  renewable panels
• Renewable category had most entries 59
• Eight renewables finalist submittals judged
• 5 concentrating PV
• 1 solar thermal electric
• 1 solar hot water
• 1 microwind
• Winner GreenVolts (High Concentration PV)