NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments

1
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster
Reductions and Risk Assessments

• John Gaynor
• Office of Weather and Air Quality Research
• And
• USWRP Interagency Program Office
• Silver Spring, MD

2
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster
Reductions and Risk AssessmentsBackground

• Research applied to NOAAs environmental
  forecasting and understanding mission.
• Research to improve forecasts of hazardous
  weather including hurricanes, tornados, heavy
  (flood producing) precipitation.
• Much of research under the USWRP (NOAA, NSF,
  NASA, DoD) directed toward forecast improvements
  in
• Hurricane landfall track and intensity
• Hurricane inland precipitation
• Precipitation leading to floods
• Effects of storm surges and high winds.

3
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster
Reductions and Risk AssessmentsBackground (Cont.)

• Research and modeling leading to volcanic and
  wildfire plume forecasting.
• Seasonal and interannual forecasts of extreme
  weather events.
• Forecasts of geomagnetic storms.

4
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster
Reductions and Risk Assessments Severe Weather

• Public education and outreach from NSSL on
  tornado, lightning and severe storm safety.
• Severe winter California coastal storm and
  coastal flooding potential information and
  education to
• Emergency managers
• Water managers
• Fishing industry
• Weather Service Forecast Offices
• Media

5
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster
Reductions and Risk Assessments Hurricanes and
Severe East Coast Storms

• Provision of short-term forecasts of hurricane
  surface winds at landfall and surface analysis
  soon after landfall for
• Emergency managers
• Insurance industry
• General public/media
• Informal public education and awareness campaign
  of hurricane threat (Florida).
• Research by Sea Grant on optimum beach and
  building design and construction to minimize
  storm surge or tide beach erosion and building
  damage. Partnering with state and local building
  authorities.

6
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster
Reductions and Risk Assessments Climate and
Space Weather

• Advising western water managers on seasonal
  precipitation outlooks.
• Providing geomagnetic storm forecasts and
  forecast interpretation to vulnerable utility and
  communications companies.

7
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster
Reductions and Risk Assessments Needs

• NOAA Research needs assistance with interfacing
  and partnering with hazards practitioners to
  transition research results into the
  operations/service community.