Climate Risk and Early Warning Integrating all of the factors of disaster risk, across time scales of days to decades

1
Second International Conference on Early Warning,
Bonn, Germany, 16-18 October, 2003
Climate Risk and Early Warning Integrating all
of the factors of disaster risk, across time
scales of days to decades
Reid Basher International Research Institute
for Climate Prediction (IRI) and UN Inter-Agency
Secretariat for the ISDR
IRI



2
Risk as the focus

• Risk the negative outcomes
• faced by people, enterprises,
• governments this is the
  target of early warning
• All time scales rapid events, seasonal changes,
  and long term trends
• All sources of risk social, economic,
  ecological, not just the hazard

3
Multiple factors compound the riskWhy have
climate-related disasters increased ?
Climatic hazards
Population exposed
Poverty
Development pressure
Risk!
Environmental degradation
Lack of knowledge
Inadequate leadership
Minimal public services
Ineffective early warning
4
Changing views of climate (1) The pre-science
era is still with us

• Understanding based on spirit world
  or religious teachings
• Early warning in hands of spiritual
  leaders, often linked to omens
• Often strong fatalism, with disasters as
  punishment or acts of the divine

5
Changing views of climate (2) The stability and
statistics era, 19C onward

• Climate seen as stable and stationary
• Details revealed by long series of data
• Disasters as statistical, probabilistic
  events (e.g. the hundred year flood)
• Powerful basis for risk management
  and early warning

6
Changing views of climate (3) The global
climate system era, post 1970

• Satellites show whole Earth, with
  swirling, chaotic climate system
• Computers allow models of the
  climate system - atmosphere and
  oceans interacting
• El Niño system revealed, seasonal forecasts,
  global monitoring, global early warning

7
Changing views of climate (4) Current era of
change and uncertainty

• Human, GHG-induced climate change
• Natural fluctuations, e.g. 1970s Sahel
• Uncertainty and fear about future
  changes, disasters a major concern
• High stakes, growing human vulnerability

A greater need for early warning and foresight
8
Reducing seasonal risks

• Seasonal forecasts are getting better
• Give outlook on chances of drought or
  high rainfall

Kenya, Oct-Nov-Dec season
Measured rainfall versus seasonal prediction
ECHAM4 model (correlation coefficient 0.8)
9
Early warning of other risk factors

• How can we provide early
  warning and foresight of
• Declining environmental state?
• Risk-raising development projects?
• Communications and capacity weaknesses?
• Economics, markets (e.g. food supplies prices)?
• Trends in migration, conflict, health
  vulnerability?

10
Early warning - for risk reduction
Element Day-Week-Month-Year-Decade Weather,
tides, floods, soils XXXX
XXX Reservoirs, snow pack
XXXXXXXX People exposed, conflict, migration
XXXXXX Crop production, food prices
XXXXXX Food reserves, food aid
XXXXXX Environmental
management
XXXXXXXX Industry, urban, infrastructure design
XXXXXXX Land use planning

XXXXXX
11
Integrated approach to early warning

• Events Monitor, analyze, predict
  storms, floods, drought, etc.
• Impact Surveillance and interpretation of food
  supply and prices, reservoir storage, migration,
  etc
• Vulnerability Analysis and summary of trends in
  environmental and socio-economic factors
• Policies Scenario analysis of disaster impacts
  of current and proposed policies and projects

12
Conclusion

• Integrating early warning into policy .
• Requires strong awareness of multiple factors in
  disasters, plus ability to bridge organizational
  gaps
• Better addresses the problem of growing disasters
  and the issue of global change
• Expands the role and toolkit of early warning
  building on existing technical capabilities