Title: Data needs and priorities of research community for climate
1Data needs and prioritiesof research
communityfor climate
The physical climate system
2Some key events
- 2007 (Oct) Joint WCRP/IGBP /GCOS Workshop
Future Climate Change Research and Observations
GCOS, WCRP and IGBP Learning from the Fourth
Assessment Report Sydney, Australia - http//wcrp.wmo.int/documents/SydneyWorkshopRep_FI
NAL.pdf - Trenberth 2008 WMO Bull.
- Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS
- 2008 (May) World Modeling Summit for Climate
Prediction ECMWF, Reading, UK - 2009 (March) Joint IPCC/WCRP/IGBP Workshop New
Science Directions and Activities Relevant to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change U. Hawaii, Honolulu,
Hawaii - 2010 (Sept) WCRP-UNESCO Workshop Metrics and
methodologies of estimation of extreme climate
events Paris, France - Zolina et al. 2010 Eos
3Global warming is unequivocalAdaptation to
climate change
- Assess vulnerability
- Devise coping strategies
- Determine impacts of possible changes
- Plan for future changes
- Requires information
4Climate Information System
5Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS (April issue)
- Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4
- Scientific Developments Needed To Understand,
Predict, And Respond To Climate Change
6Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS (April issue)
- Recommendations
- 1) Improved process-level understanding, climate
models, observations of climate-relevant
parameters and climate monitoring systems are
needed in specific areas. - 2) Because some degree of climate change is
virtually certain (IPCC 2007), additional efforts
are needed to make climate information more
relevant to decisions concerning impacts,
adaptation and mitigation.
7Doherty et al. 2009 Key research needs
- Improve models
- Provide reliable climate forecasts 10-30 year
time frame, with uncertainties - Predictions with regional-scale climate
information, accounting for land surface
processes and biosphereatmosphere interactions - Ensure the observational record incl
reprocessing and reanalysis
8Doherty et al. 2009 Key research needs
- Expand datasets to include observations of the
impacts of climate change and to account for
autonomous or planned adaptation. - Systematically monitor and assess vulnerability
- Harmonize across climate, impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability consistent land use, land cover,
emissions climate assessments historic and
future - Better understand variations in the hydrological
cycle, esp extremes
9Doherty et al. 2009 Key research needs
9) Use physical process studies, observations,
and syntheses to obtain a consensus on the
possible nonlinear responses of ice sheets to
climate change, including their influences on
rates of sea level rise.
- 10) Improve process modeling and understanding of
feedbacks in the carbon cycle across the earth
system. - 11) Improve understanding of the processes
involved in aerosol indirect forcing
10Modeling summit May 08
- Develop strategy to revolutionize prediction of
the climate through the twenty-first century and,
in particular, to help address the threat of
global climate change at the regional level. The
outcome was the recommendation of a - Climate Prediction Project
- http//wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModelingSumm
it/Documents/FinalSummitStat_6_6.pdf - Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS
11An Earth System Prediction Initiative
12Modeling summit repercussions
- Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS
- Shapiro, M., et al., 2007 The socio-economic and
environmental benefits of a revolution in
weather, climate and Earth system analysis and
prediction. The Full Picture, Group on Earth
Observation, 136138. - Hurrell, J. W., et al., 2009 A unified modeling
approach to climate system prediction. BAMS, 90,
18191832. - Meehl, G., et al., 2009 Decadal prediction Can
it be skillful? BAMS, 90, 14671485. - Shukla, J., et al. 2009 Revolution in climate
prediction is both necessary and possible A
declaration at the World Modelling Summit for
Climate Prediction. BAMS, 90, 175178. - Shapiro et al., 2010 An earth-system prediction
initiative for the Twenty-first Century. BAMS,
91, 1377-1388. - Nobre, C., et al., 2010 Addressing the
complexity of the earth system. BAMS, 91,
13891396. - Brunet, G., et al., 2010 Collaboration of the
weather and climate communities to advance
subseasonal to seasonal prediction. BAMS, 91,
13971406. - Shukla, et al., 2010 Toward a new generation of
world climate research and computing facilities.
BAMS, 91, 14071412.
13From Hollingsworth et al. 2005
14Weather Prediction (T1279, 15 km)compared with
Satellite ObservationsECMWF predictions and
Meteosat observationsMartin Miller and Peter
Bechtold (ECMWF)
15New Science Directions and Activities Relevant to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC
2009 Hawaii Meeting
- Important emerging science topics, (WG I)
- sea level and ice sheet instabilities
- detection attribution on the regional level,
and of extremes - methodology of multi-model ensembles
- cloud and aerosol processes and associated
uncertainties - atmospheric chemistry and climate
- Earth System modeling of climate, including
biogeochemistry and land-surface interactions - coverage of the full range of possible futures.
- Expert meetings proposed
- Joint WGI-WGII IPCC Expert Meeting on "The
Methodology of Detection and Attribution - on Decreasing Space Scales and Extremes".
- WGI Expert Meeting on "The Methodology
Multi-Model Ensembles and Model Metrics"
16Other key events in 2009
WCC-3 emphasised the essential roles of
observation and research in providing the basis
for climate services OceanObs 09 developed a
common vision for provision of routine and
sustained global information on the marine
environment
Towards a Global Framework for Climate Services
17WCRP extremes workshop
- Workshop on metrics and methodologies of
estimation of extreme climate events WCRP-UNESCO
(GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP) - UNESCO, Paris 27-30 Sept 2010
- Chair Olga Zolina
- 132 from 32 countries
- Oral, poster, discussion sessions 3 Breakout
Groups - Community white paper, Eos and BAMS(?) article
- http//www.extremeworkshop.org/
- Goal To provide much improved observational
datasets and model capabilities on variability
and extremes, especially those that have high
impacts on society and the environment and
develop a climate information system that include
predictions and assessments of future changes in
risk from extremes. -
- 21 Dec 2010 issue
18Reason for focus on extremes
Mean A 50F, s.d. 10F
19Reason for focus on extremes
Shift in climate from A to B Most of time the
values are the same (green).
Mean A 50F, s.d. 10F Mean B 55F, s.d. 10F
20Issues for extremes
- High resolution observations are not available
(hourly) - High resolution model data often not saved
- Model results typically not available or archived
- Model definitions are often different from obs
- Model grid box value may not be comparable to
mean of grid box from observations - Ability and utility of models
- Model extremes are not well simulated.
- Improvements of models (intensity, frequency of
precip etc) - Improvements in resolution
21An Opportunity
A milestone in developing the WCRP Strategy and
an opportunity to sense the views of the
community
Major research opportunity
22Earth system complexity
National Academy of Sciences Keck Mural