THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
01 November 2005
Climate Community
Climate Test Bed
Research Development
NOAA Climate Forecast Operations

Mission to accelerate the transition of research
and development into improved NOAA operational
climate forecasts, products, and applications.
2
THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

• Motivation
• CTB Role
• Framework
• Infrastructure
• Transition Projects Science Priorities
• Organization
• 1st CTB Annual Meeting
• Objectives Expected Outcome

3
MOTIVATION(Scientific)

• NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled
  Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I
  applications that shows considerable promise.
• The CFS is a significant step forward in
  forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having
  achieved at least parity with statistical
  forecasts.
• Faster development of NOAA climate forecast
  systems is needed to improve on these forecasts
  and to provide more useful climate forecast
  products and applications.
• Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use
  by climate researchers is an optimal way to
  leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external
  community in order to accelerate the necessary
  improvements.

4
Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF
97/98 DJF 03/04)
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MOTIVATION(Programmatic)

• In order to achieve the blend of internal and
  external efforts required to improve NOAA
  operational climate forecast systems, a Climate
  Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized.
• The CTB will
• provide more traction and visibility to
  intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by
  accelerating the transition to NOAA climate
  forecast operations
• provide an operational testing environment to
  support projects that result in a direct
  influence on NOAA climate forecast operations
• provide infrastructure and resources for (long
  term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on
  broader research issues affecting NOAA climate
  forecast operations.

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CTB ROLE

• What does the CTB bring thats genuinely new?
• A Focus on Transition
• A Means of Engagement for the research,
  operations and applications communities
• A Mechanism for Distribution of Models Data.  

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A FOCUS ON TRANSITION

• In order to accelerate improvements the CTB must
  define a process to
• Identify and communicate the scope of
  responsibilities for the Research
  (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A)
  communities.  
• Identify and delineate different types of
  transition
• R2O define where O picks up responsibility, and
  at what juncture a "hand-off" from R occurs.
• O2A define where A picks up responsibility, and
  at what juncture a hand-off from O occurs.
• Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure
  smooth transitions.  

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Applying the Funnel to the Transition Process
Research and Development
1

• Large volume of RD,
• funded through AOs,
• Agency Labs
• Smaller set of RD
• products suitable for
• operations.
• 3. Systematic transition steps
• R2O.
• 4. Systematic transition steps
• O2A
• Delivery to diverse USER
• community

2
R2O
NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an
operational infrastructure for the transition
process
3
Operations
N C E P
4
O2A User Community
5
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RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES(Pan et al.)

• The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP
  operational climate model suite consists of the
  following steps
• Model development and refinement
• Preliminary assessment
• Calibration
• Interface with operations
• Final skill assessment
• Parallel tests
• Approval
• Roles of host (research) institution and the
  operational center must be clear for each step to
  ensure smooth transitions.
• Resources are needed for both the research and
  operations communities to ensure smooth
  transitions.

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OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES

• The path for implementation of operational tools
  in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists
  of the following steps
• Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts)
• Assigning weights to each tool
• Systematic error correction
• Specific output variables (T2m precip for US
  SST Z500 for global)
• Available in real-time
• Need to identify and refine steps for other types
  of O2A
• Delivering models and data to the community
  NOMADS Server
• Regional applications of NOAA climate forecasts
  (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx)
• Roles of the operational center and the
  applications community must be clear for each
  step to ensure smooth transitions.
• Resources are needed for both the operations and
  applications communities to ensure smooth
  transitions.

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A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT

• Collaboration with the climate community is key
• Broaden membership on CTB SAB, CST, OB and
  Transition Project Teams include private sector
  and international members
• Expand collaborative transition projects (AOs)
• Expand CTB System and Science Support Teams, and
  Visiting Scientist Program
• Develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA
  line offices, other agencies and external
  stakeholders.

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CTB LINKS TO
OTHER PROGRAMS

• CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR GEWEX Programs
• U.S. (NOAA Climate and Global Change Program -
  CDEP, CPPA, CLIVAR)
• International (WCRP VAMOS NAME, MESA, VOCALS,
  AMMA)
• CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs)
• NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data
  Assimilation
• Provides atmosphere, ocean, land surface data
  assimilation infrastructure
• Improved use of satellite data (Climate
  applications, reanalysis issues, observing system
  stability)
• Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)
• GFDL and NCEP codes are becoming ESMF compatible
• Other Agencies (DOE, NASA, USDA, etc)

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CTB LINKS TO NOAA OGP

• CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR GEWEX Programs
• CPPA
• Climate Process and modeling Teams (NAME warm
  season precip forecasts)
• Drought monitoring and prediction ( LDAS - soil
  moisture NIDIS)
• Hydrologic prediction (H2O Resource Mgmt)
• CLIVAR Pacific
• Predictability of climate variability (ENSO, MJO,
  AO) in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales
• CLIVAR Atlantic
• Predictability of Atlantic Marine ITCZ related
  rainfall in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales
• CDEP ARCS / IRI
• Seasonal climate forecast products / tools
  (drought, agriculture, fire applications)
• Multi-model ensembles (FY06)
• Quantification of predictability

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CTB FRAMEWORK

• Infrastructure
• Computing Support (1/3rd NOAA Red Research
  Computer)
• System and Science Support Teams (models, data,
  diagnostics)
• Contractors, Technical Assistants, System
  Administrators
• Management and Administrative Staff
• Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant
• Transition Projects
• Base (internally) Funded
• Short Term potential for impact on operations
  in 2 years or less
• FTEs reallocated from NCEP and other line
  offices
• Announcements of Opportunity
• Long term potential for impact on operations in
  2 or more years
• Projects are reviewed, competitive, community
  wide, broader science issues
• NOAA or external lead PIs
• Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

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CURRENT CTB RESOURCES

• NCEP Contributions
• Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer)
• 23 Redirected FTEs
• Management Team 0.5 (CPC) 0.25 (EMC) 0.25
  (CPC)
• System Support Team (data, software) 4 (CPC)
  0.5 (EMC)
• Science Support (Transition Project Teams) 16
  (CPC) 4 (EMC)
• NOAA Climate Program Office
• Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure
  (System Support TA in FY05, FY06) Additional
  funding for near term and competitive transition
  projects.
• CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects
  (FY06)

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CTB CURRENT AND FUTURE
TRANSITION PROJECTS

• Current (FY05 and FY06) Short Term plans
• Assessments of the Current Version of NCEP
  CFS/GFS
• Objective Model Consolidation for Generating
  Official Forecasts
• Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction
  System
  (Set up GFDL S/I hindcast
  system on NCEP computer reproducibility tests)
• Future (FY07 ) Long Term plans
• Assessments of the Next (n1) Version of NCEP
  CFS/GFS
• Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction
  System
• Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
• Drought Monitoring and Prediction Support NIDIS
  
• Development of Regional Application Products
  (e.g. Energy, Agriculture, Water, Fire Wx)
• Advanced Forecast Capabilities (e.g. Ecosystems
  Air Chemistry Carbon Cycle Fisheries)

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ASSESSMENTS OF THE NEXT (n1) VERSION
OF THE CFS/GFS

• Possible Upgrades for the next (n1) version of
  CFS/GFS are coming into focus
• Land Couple Noah LSM to CFS
• Ocean MOM4
• Resolution T126
• Physics Convective parameterization
  Multi-physics ensemble
• Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of future
  changes to CFS/GFS are needed prior to
  implementation.
• Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets
  to the community.
• Caveat Less emphasis on evaluation of older
  versions of the CFS/GFS in favor of the newer
  version(s).  

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DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEM

• NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the
  strategy for a MM Ensemble Prediction System.
• CTB can coordinate "National" models that
  contribute to accelerated improvements in S/I
  climate predictions and projections, both in
  real-time products and with research that
  contributes to the CCSP and IPCC.
• National models are global ocean-atmosphere
  coupled models
• NCEP/CFS
• GFDL/CM2
• NASA/GEOS 5
• NSF/CCSM
• CTB can coordinate with any of several
  Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g.
  European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC).
• The roles and responsibilities of the host
  institutions and the operational center(s) must
  be clearly spelled out, commensurate with
  resources, to ensure smooth transitions.  

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ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

• CTB can promote and coordinate synthesis of
  ongoing (oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric)
  reanalysis activities within NOAA, across
  agencies and internationally.
• Benefits
• NOAA Can take full advantage of established CTB
  infrastructure (e.g. SAB, OB,
  teams, computer).
• Can coordinate and provide resources for (long
  term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on
  broader issues related to climate reanalysis that
  contribute to improved understanding of climate
  variability and change and enhance climate
  prediction.
• Management
• Project Manager for Interagency Coordination and
  a Program Manager to coordinate reanalysis
  activities within NOAA, across agencies, and
  internationally.

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DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION

• Proposal Designate the GAPP Core Project and its
  external RD collaborators as the Climate
  Process Team for Land on the CTB
• Activities
• Couple Noah LSM to T126 version of CFS Calibrate
  
• Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts
• Development of a Drought Early Warning System.
• Benefits
• Coordinate with Operational Drought Monitoring
  and Prediction
• Support NIDIS
• Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan

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CTB ORGANIZATION
Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO
Science Advisory Board
Director Higgins (CPC)
Program Manager Ji (OGP)
Deputies Pan (EMC) Gelman (CPC)
Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA
NCAR OST OCCWS COLA IRI EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal
Points)
Science / Software Support from Contractors
TAs, SAs
Test Bed Users
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TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB

• Oversight Board (OB)
• Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA
  Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB
  activities.
• Climate Science Team (CST)
• Guides CTB activities at the working level
  evaluates results of CTB activities makes
  recommendations to the CTB management on
  computing resource usage and access
• Science Advisory Board (SAB)
• Works with the broader climate community to
  provide independent expert advice on
  high-priority scientific challenges coordinates
  with other programs (e.g.,
  CLIVAR, GEWEX)
• Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB
  Website http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ct
  b

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CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• Q1 Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOPs)
• Q1 CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November
  16, 2004)
• Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams
• Model parameterization,
• Model sensitivity
• Assessments
• Climate data assimilation (ocean and land)
• Multi-model ensembles
• Climate products and applications
• Q2 Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and
  Science Support Teams)
• Q2 Established OB, CST and SAB
• Q2 Implemented CTB website
• Q2 CTB ToR , White Paper and Transition to
  Operations Plan
• Q3 CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO

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CTB MILESTONES (FY06)

• CTB Science Priorities and Transition Plan (2nd
  Draft)
• Support external CTB users to the extent
  resources are available
• Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer
  and begin to test reproducibility of data
  compared to runs on GFDL computer
• Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on
  publicly accessible server
• Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool
  to improve its use of skill information
• Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for
  ongoing analysis of the climate system

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CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11)

• Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS
• Complete experimental testing of tier-1
  multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMCGFDL)
• Transition NASA model to CTB
• Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB
• Complete experimental testing of tier-1
  multi-model ensemble forecast system
  (EMCGFDLCCSMNASA)
• Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for
  NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS

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The CTB Message

• The NOAA CTB will
• Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA
  operational and research centers and the broader
  external research and applications communities by
  providing an operational testing facility that
  facilitates smooth transitions.
• Deliver opportunities for goal directed research
  using the Climate Forecast System, other climate
  models, and a state of the art multi-model
  ensemble approach to improving climate
  prediction.
• Accelerate the transition of research advances
  into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts,
  products and applications.
• Increase the range and scope of applications,
  and the economic benefit, of operational climate
  forecasts for policy-making and decision-making
  by end users.

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1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING OBJECTIVES

• Engage the community in a discussion of CTB
  progress and plans
• Discuss improve the strategy for collaboration
  with the community
• Gather independent expert advice on future CTB
  science priorities.
• Overall Goal to help focus the community
  towards the CTB mission and
  objectives

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1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING AGENDA

• Oral Sessions ( 6-30 minute talks each)
• Climate Model Assessments (CFS/GFS) (Mon AM)
• Multi Model Ensembles (Mon PM)
• Climate Forecasts and Applications (Tue AM)
• Poster Session (Mon AM)
• Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Meeting
  (Mon PM)

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EXPECTED OUTCOME

• Independent expert advice on CTB FY07 Science
  Priorities (SAB written Summary Report)
• Update CTB Science Priorities and Transition
  Plan (CTB Management)
• CTB Annual Report (CTB Management)
• Provide guidance to participating agencies and
  institutions