Title: National Hurricane Conference Navy Priorities and Initiatives for Tropical Cyclone Research
1National Hurricane ConferenceNavy Priorities
and Initiatives for Tropical Cyclone Research
- Robert S. Winokur
- Technical Director
- Oceanographer of the Navy
- March 2008
2Key Discussion Points for Today
- Implications of new Maritime Strategy
- Africa Partnership Station
- Initiatives and priorities related to Tropical
Cyclone Research - RTPs
- NPOESS
- NUOPC
3Maritime Strategy Oct 2007A Cooperative
Strategy for 21st Century Seapower
- Six key tasks or strategic imperatives
- Regionally concentrated, forward-deployed task
forces to limit regional conflict - Deter major power war
- Win our Nations wars as part of a joint campaign
- Contribute to homeland defense in depth
- Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with
more international partners - Prevent or mitigate disruptions or crises
4Maritime Strategy Implications for Naval
Oceanography
- Warfighting readiness
- Environmental support globally
- Leverage RD initiatives to ensure warfighting
benefits - Manage risk and understand uncertainty of
predictions - Partnership building
- National and international relationships to
advance common national interests and global
maritime security - Humanitarian assistance and disaster response
- Rapid and sustained non-combatant evacuations
- Potential impacts of climate change on
- natural disasters, social instability and
regional crises -
5Africa Partnership Station
- One of a series to build maritime safety and
security in Africa - Focus on Gulf of Guinea
- Aligned with broad international and US
- non-military objectives
- NOAA involvement
- Fisheries, meteorology, hydrography
- NOAA Pirata buoy
- HSV Swift, USS FT. McHenry
- Training for nine African nations
6Rapid Transition Process (RTP)
- Meeting the challenge of timely integration and
transition from Research (6.2) to Operations
(6.4) - Oceanographer of the Navy / Office of Naval
Research / Commander Naval METOC Command - / Program Executive Office
- Rapid 3-4 year transition
- Consistent with CNO Strategic Plan
- Good Science Clear Impact Navy Relevance
7RTPs Applied to Tropical Cyclones
- DIRECT
- FY 2001 Improvements to Tropical Cyclone Model
Forecasts - FY 2002 Modeling Tropical Cyclone Structure and
Track - INDIRECT
- FY 2006 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather
Prediction - FY 2007 Quantifying Uncertainty through Global
and Mesoscale Models - FY 2008 High Resolution NOGAPS
84DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction
- 4D assimilation provides a continuous picture of
the atmosphere over the observation time - Provides a consistent framework for observations
of cloud, precipitation, water vapor, ozone and
aerosols affecting model temperature, humidity
and wind fields - Particularly relevant in data rich NPOESS era
9Quantifying Uncertainty through Global and
Mesoscale Models
- Global - mesoscale ensemble forecasting system
- Provide high-fidelity, dynamically consistent
probabilistic forecasts and estimates of
uncertainty - Direct support to Tactical decision Aids (TDA)
- Indirect but important enhancement to TC
forecasts
10High Resolution NOGAPS
- Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction
System - Increased resolution will improve capability to
assimilate observations and predict finer scale
features such as TCs - Proposed development
- - 27 km horizontal resolution (current 50 km)
- - 60 vertical levels (current 30 levels)
- - semi-Lagrangian moisture advection
11NPOESS
- NPOESS Next-Generation Sensors and applications
to Tropical Cyclone research, modeling, and
predictability - Includes associated algorithm development at Navy
Centrals (FNMOC and NAVOCEANO), and Ground
Segments/ IDPS (Interface Data Processing
Segment) - IDPS Installs at FNMOC Monterey and NAVOCEANO
(completed by November 2012), improving time
latency and direct ingest into 4DVAR NOGAPS - METOP, NPP Exploitation
Improving Quality, Quantity, and Time Latency of
Remotely Sensed Data Critical to improved
diagnosis of intensity change, location of TC
Center, and better track/landfall forecasts.
12NPOESS Sensors
- NPOESS Sensors with TC Applications for USN
include - Improved Imaging (VIIRS, MIS)
- Improved retrievals and soundings (CrIS/ATMS),
with more channels and higher vertical resolution - Hyperspectral capability (CrIS)
- Possibility of passive ocean surface wind vectors
- Improved hurricane ocean heat content products
(NAVO) - NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Tropical Cyclone
Web Page (http//www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_h
ome.html) - Host imagery products
- Currently includes WINDSAT, AMSU, AMSR
- Will likely include METOP, NPP, NPOESS derived
products
13NPOESS Sensors TC Structure
SSM/I 37 GHz H-Pol
MIS Sensor IMAGERY If based on WINDSAT design
(large antenna), then resolution at all
frequencies is improved over SSMI Compare 37GHz
images to the right, note improved resolution,
and thus enhanced TC Structure, with WINDSAT
37GHz Note structure of spiral bands, inner
core, and double eye wall
WindSat 37 GHz H-Pol
Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey Code 7500
14NPOESS VIIRS Potential - Nighttime Visible
Examples of low-level TC structure, location of
center revealed through reflected moonlight
algorithm using the DMSP Operational Linescan
System OLSplan to exploit this capability
further with VIIRS Channels
Upper-Level Circulation
Notice IR image (left) and nighttime visible
(right) in the cases of Georgette (top) and
Flossie (Bottom)
Lower-Level Circulation 200km SE
Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey Code 7500
15National Unified Operational Prediction
CapabilityPartnership (NUOPC)
- Established to enable a Tri-Agency joint global
atmospheric ensemble forecast system, - Integration of on-going efforts coordinated by a
tri-agency management organization
16NUOPC Vision (2015)
- Tri-Agency partnership to address common
operational global NWP needs - National NWP system with interoperable components
built on common standards and framework (ESMF) - Managed operational ensemble diversity
- Joint ensemble
- Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact
weather - Mission Specific ensemble products
- National global NWP research agenda to accelerate
science and technology infusion
17The NUOPC Partnership
- Coordinated technology development for future
systems - Interoperable model architecture to allow for
exchange of technology at the component level - Common Developmental test structure with
available tools, support and access to data, data
assimilation and developmental models (DTC or
VTC) - Prioritization of common operational needs
- Aligned transition processes
- Joint ensemble system with managed diversity
- Share operational computing costs
- Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency
unique operational requirements through driving
downstream applications - Significant acceleration in operational
performance - Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency
Executive Steering Group
18Role of the Meteorological Community
- Participation in committees defining NUOPC
concepts and plans - Common Model Architecture Committee
- Technology Transition Processes Committee
- Unified Ensemble Operations Committee
(Information Assurance Panel) - Support national research and development Agenda
RD community involvement - Support developmental standards and
- contribute to research needs of the
- operational community.
19Where We Are Today
- Two-year Phase I approved by Agency Principals
- Full operational capability by 2015 with early
IOC for select phases - Memorandum of Agreement drafted
- Initial implementation plan and concept of
operations developed - Interim Project Manager selected
- Committee process approved
- Requesting nominations for interim committees
- Town hall session at AMS
- Scheduling a follow on outreach meeting with
other Federal agencies (FAA, NASA, NSF, etc.) to
provide update and reaffirm support
20In SummaryNavy Remains Committed
- New Maritime Strategy Cooperative relationships
and humanitarian assistance - Parntnership building
- Joint programs NUOPC
- Transition from research to operations RTPS
- Preparing for NPOESS
- Reduce uncertainty in forecasts