THE OFFICE OF NONPROLIFERATION

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Energy-Economic-Environmental Analysis of
Photovoltaics in the US
V.M. Fthenakis Environmental Sciences Department
Brookhaven National Laboratory
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The MARKAL model was developed as an energy and
environmental systems model in the 1976-81 period
in an effort involving analysts from 17 nations
and two international organizations. The model is
currently used for energy and environmental
planning in over 35 countries. The US Energy
Information Administration has chosen a version
of MARKAL for projections in the International
Energy Output. MARKAL is a demand-driven,
multi-period, linear programming model
optimization model (Fishbone and Abilock, 1981).
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MARKAL establishes a competitive market to supply
energy demands. All energy resources and both
supply and demand technologies compete in this
market in an even-handed manner.
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Study Design
Study was based on the MARKAL version of the 2001
EIA Annual Energy Outlook. PV, Wind, Advanced
Combined Cycle plants and Microturbines were
released from growth constraints in the AEO
model. Cost and performance data for PV, wind and
solar thermal technologies were drawn EPRI
(1997). These three MARKAL analyses were
constrained to growth rates of 25/year, 30/year
and 50/year.
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Study Design
These three analyses were compared among
themselves and to the 25/year Roadmap. This
allows us to compare the Roadmap with a
sophisticated energy systems model under
different circumstances.
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Study Design
In addition, The potential role of PV on peak
load was explored. MARKAL is designed to produce
the cost of electricity endogenously. We tricked
the model by decreasing the length of the summer
day, which forces the price of electricity to
increase. We achieved a price of 287/MWh, within
the range of peak prices found by Sioshansi
(2000) in the Pacific Northwest.
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PV 50/y growth constraint
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50 /y Competing Technologies
Note Wind 5-7 Limited to 100 GW Resource Limit
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50/y Carbon Displacement
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PV 30/y Growth Constraint
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30/y Growth Constraint - Competing Technologies
Wind 5-7constrained to 100GW resource limit.
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30/y Carbon displacement
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PV 25/y growth
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25/y Growth limit - Competing technologies
Wind 5-7 limited to 100 GW resource
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25 Carbon displacement
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Compare PV among three scenarios
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Carbon Displacement for three PV scenarios
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Potential Role of PV in peaking power
SD10 compresses summer day to achieve 288/MWh
peak.
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Implications of Peaking for PV
In a deregulated market, electric prices can be
high during peak hours, especially when there is
a shortage of capacity. Peak periods usually
coincide with hot sunny days. MARKAL
characterizes the electric load curve in three
seasons (winter, summer, intermediate), night and
day, and peak. The amount the peak exceeds the
average summer day (assuming a summer peak) is
determined exogenously. To determine the
potential role of PV for peaking, we artificially
narrowed the time-period for the summer day,
inducing a high cost peak (200-300 per MWh.)
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