What are National Security Threats?

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ASCO and DTRA Update and Welcome
UNCLASSIFIED

• What are National Security Threats?
• 2nd Annual JTAC Workshop
• 4 April 2006

Richard Gullickson, Director, ASCO Richard.gullick
son_at_dtra.mil
UNCLASSIFIED
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Message

• National strategy focuses on understanding
  adversaries
• Threat Anticipation emphasized in QDR
• Adversary deterrence calculus key element of
  STRATCOM strategy deterrence assessment process
• TAP makes important contribution to DTRA Campaign
  6 Global Situational Awareness
• Importance of international partnership with
  Australia

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National Policy Shapes ASCO Portfolio

• Policy themes
• Prevention Anticipate threats
• Know your adversary
• Cultural and social network understanding
• Deterring terrorism
• Nuclear proliferation
• Nuclear terrorism
• Cooperative interdiction
• Disruptive technologies
• Technical surprise
• Advanced bio threat
• Knowledge transformation
• Expanded DoD roles
• Enabling HD/HS

4
DTRA is a Combat Support Agency Focused on
Combating WMD
National Strategy
Nonproliferation
Counterproliferation
Consequence Management
QDR Emphasis Proliferation Prevention
Stopped by Threat Control Threat Reduction
Stopped by Deterrence
Stopped by Interdiction
Stopped by Counterforce Elimination
Stopped by Active Defense
Stopped by Passive Defense
Consequence Management Restoration Operations
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Threat Anticipation Supports Global Situational
Awareness
USD(AT L)
JCS
Threat Reduction Advisory Committee
DDRE
ATSD(NCB)
STRAT
DIRECTOR Deputy Director
OSD-P
ASCO BOD
Advanced Systems Concepts Office
Business
Business Excellence
DoD Center for Global WMD Situational Awareness
Operations
RD
Control WMD Materials and Systems Worldwide
Remove WMD threat to the warfighter
Protect the Homeland Against Catastrophic WMD
threats
Deterrence Transformation
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ASCO Projects Have Long Term Strategic Impact
University Strategic Partnership
Threat Anticipation
UNM
Iraqi Virtual Science Library
Iranian WMD
Homeland Defense 2008
Impact of Future Technology
2015-2025
Resources
SARS Quarantine Table Top Exercise
Future WMD
Strategic Deterrence
Strategic Crisis Management
Risk Management In New Strategic Framework
Future Military Conflict
Time
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New Directions in Threat Anticipation

• Objective
• Understand and anticipate adversary behavior,
  motivations, world views
• Elements
• Integrate computational and social sciences
• 2 prototype models one traditional agent-based,
  and one using a novel approach
• Joint Threat Anticipation Center at UC, ANL
• Verification and validation

• Results
• Analyzed Al Qaeda's decision making strategy
  post-Iraq War
• Identified soft US mideast sites as their
  primary goals prior to May attacks
• Agent-based model supports Joint Staff
• Assessment of Indonesian stability with
  Australian, PACOM collaboration

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University Strategic Partnership
Innovative Research Initiative in CWMD
Strategic Partnership
Solving DTRA Problems
He2 Metastable Cluster
University of New Mexico
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Summary

• Threat anticipation is key element of national
  strategy
• Substantial emphasis on verification and
  validation
• Importance of partnerships
• Australia
• University strategic partnership