Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport

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Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for
Hazardous Materials Transport
Shashi Nambisan Professor of Civil
Engineering Dept of Civil Environmental
Engineering Transportation Research
Center UNLV Seminar at the Dept. of Civil,
Construction, and Environmental
Engineering Center for Transportation Research
Education Iowa State University November 5, 2004
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Emergency Management

• Disasters / Emergencies
• Natural
• Man Made
• Epidemics

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Natural Disasters

• Earthquakes
• Fires
• Floods and Dam failures
• Hurricanes / Tornadoes
• Land slides / Mudslides
• Volcanoes

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Man Made Disasters

• Accidental, Intentional
• Chemical releases, spills
• Explosions
• Radioactive power plant
• Transportation air, pipeline, road, rail, water
• Fire

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Emergency Management Phases

• Preparedness
• Response
• Recovery
• Mitigation
• Transportation is always a factor

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Analyses to Support Emergency Management

• Hazard Analysis
• Risk Assessment
• Vulnerability Assessment
• Criticality Analysis

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Hazard or Risk? Vulnerable or Critical??
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Key Terms

• Susceptibility How prone is a system to
  weaknesses
• Vulnerability The susceptibility to losses due
  to exposure to hazard
• Reliability The complement to vulnerability
  describes adequate serviceability under the
  operating conditions encountered at a given time
• Resiliency The ability to recover to normal or
  near normal state of operations

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Risk Assessment

• Risk Assessment
• f (Event, Probability, Consequence)
• Probability of event i, Pi
• Consequence of events, Ci
• Risk of one event, Ri Pi Ci (?)
• Other Models (Non-linear, Exponential, )
• Risk of all events S Ri ?

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Vulnerability Assessment

• Analysis of a system for weaknesses
• Probability of an attack on the weaknesses
• Factors
• Ease of access
• Ability and time required to harden the system
  / element

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Criticality Considerations

• Impacts on human life
• Environmental impacts
• Economic impacts
• Duration of impact

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Radioactive Materials Transport

• Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982) Amendments
• High Level Waste, Spent Nuclear Fuel
• Routing Issues
• Public Safety
• Emergency Preparedness

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Background

• Nuclear Power / HLRW
• Origins
• 76 power plants
• 4 DOE facilities
• NWPA, NWPAA
• Investigate Yucca Mountain as the Only Potential
  Site
• Designated Yucca Mountain as THE repository site
• Transport Modes
• Highway
• Rail
• Combination of Both

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Us Reactor Sites With Hazmat Volumes
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Transport Related Issues

• Risk Analysis / Minimization
• Population
• Environment
• Infrastructure
• Emergency Response

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Population

• Resident
• Non-Resident / Visitor
• Resort Corridor
• Proximity to I-15 and Union Pacific RR Track
• 100,000 hotel rooms
• Special Populations
• Schools
• Hospitals, Health Care Facilities
• Assisted Living Facilities
• Prisons

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Environmental Issues

• FF?
• Plants Animals
• Habitats
• Foraging Patterns
• Migration Patterns
• Endangered, Threatened,

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Infrastructure

• Networks
• Transport
• Utility
• Structural Adequacy
• Carriage Way (Pavement / Track Structure)
• Bridges, Tunnels
• Functional Adequacy
• Load
• Geometrics (Clearances)
• Impacts Operations, Life Cycle Costs
• System Safety
• System Redundancy

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Emergency Response Performance Indicators (MOEs)

• Incident assessment time
• First responder time
• First qualified responder time
• Evacuation time
• Extent of impact
• Population and classes of population
• Area (square miles, number of blocks, towns,
  cities)
• Environment
• Extent of avoided impact

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Risk Assessment

• Scenarios
• Routine Operations
• Accident / Incident
• Consequences
• Radiological
• Non-radiological
• Identify all Events for Each Scenario
• Estimate Pi and Ci then Ri

Scenario Scenario
Routine Accident / Incident
Radiological
Non-Rad.
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Risk Assessment
Consequence, C Scenario Scenario
Consequence, C Routine Accident / Incident
Radiological
Non-Rad.
Probability, P Scenario Scenario
Probability, P Routine Accident / Incident
Radiological
Non-Rad.
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Highway Access To Yucca Mountain
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Infrastructure
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NEVADA POPULATION DENSITY
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Police and Sheriff Local Response Times Across
Nevada
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Access Routes To Yucca Mtn Using Any Route
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Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through Wendover, NV
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Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through US 95/ Amargosa
Valley
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Summary

• Emergency Preparedness
• Risk Assessment
• SNF HLW Transport
• Population
• Environment
• Infrastructure
• Emergency Response
• Communications

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