Assessing four Futures for Energy markets and Climate Change

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Assessing four Futures for Energy markets and
Climate Change
Ton Manders CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic
Policy Analysis International Energy
Worlshop 22-24 June at the IEA, Paris, France
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Economy, energy and environment
availability
economy
energy
environment
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Why new scenarios?
Infrastructure
Spatial planning
Sustainability
Energy and climate scenarios
European General scenarios
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Driving forces, key uncertainties

• Economic development
• Technology
• Geopolitical situation
• Environmental policy
• Competition policy
• Energy security policy

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Four Futures for the economy
International cooperation
SRES-B1
SRES-A1
Global Economy
Strong Europe
Public responsibilities
Private responsibilities
Regional Communities
Transatlantic Market
SRES-B2
SRES-A2
National sovereignity
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Four futures for energy
Strong Europe Transatlantic Market Regional Communities Global Economy
Economy 0
Geopolitical East West 0 0 0
Policy Environment competition energy security 0 0 0 0
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Kaya identity
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GDP annual growth ()
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Energy per output(World in 2000 100)
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Primary energy demand (annual )
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Global energy demand by carrier
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Four Futures, IEA and EC (1)
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Four Futures, IEA and EC (2)
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Global oil market
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Oilprice
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Oil supply by origin
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European natural gas market
volume
Share of gas
price
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Import dependency natural gas European Union
increases
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Climate policy in Strong Europe
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Emissions,emission rights and costs
Emissions (tC) Emissions (tC) Emissions (tC) Emissions (tC) Costs () Costs ()
2000 2040 targets 2040 GDP Income
EU 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.6 -0.9 -2.2
USA 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.7 -0.6 -1.9
FSU 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 -5.6 -6.4
MNA 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 -6.9 -6.8
Asia/Africa 1.7 5.1 3.5 2.1 -2.2 0.2
World 6.4 11.1 5.2 5.2 -1.6 -1.6
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Conclusions

• Demand for energy will rise
• Gas and non-carbon fuels will gain importance
• Resource depletion no problem at a global level
• Import dependency for gas and oil will rise
• Limited increases in gas and oil prices
• Climate targets can be reached at moderate cost
• Flexibility is important
• Some regions and sectors suffer disproportionally
• All energy options have to be used

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Future policy

• Scenarios a broad base of future policy
• There is no reference scenario
• Energy policy
• sufficient and low-cost energy supply
• Enhance energy scecurity
• Overcome scarcities
• Environmental policy
• Limit further damage
• Increased efficiency
• Low-carbon options
• Policies may be incompatible
• Policies may be reinforcing

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Future policy

• Energy policy
• Sufficient and low-cost energy supply
• Enhance energy scecurity
• Overcome scarcities

• Scenarios a tool for future policy
• There is no reference scenario
• Policies may be incompatible
• Policies may be reinforcing

availability
economy
energy
environment

• Environmental policy
• Limit further damage
• Increased efficiency
• Low carbon options