The Eye of the Storm or the Eye of the Needle: The Challenge of Climate Change

1
The Eye of the Storm or the Eye of the Needle
The Challenge of Climate Change
Energy Star Participants MeetingToronto, May 4,
2006Ralph TorrieVice President, ICF
InternationalToronto, May 2006rtorrie_at_icfi.com
2
(No Transcript)
3
Five warmest years of the past century have all
occurred in the past decade
First 8 months of 2005
Source NOAA at ftp//ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/a
nomalies
4
Models can also be tested for their ability to
realistically simulate past climate behaviour
Source IPCC 2001. Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group
I to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes
Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.). Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK. p 11.
5
IPCC projects that the world will become MUCH,
MUCH warmer
Source IPCC 2001. Climate Change 2001 Synthesis
Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and
III to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Watson,R.T et al. (eds.). Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK. p 140.
6
Probabilistic approach suggests sensitivity
near 3.2C
Source Murphy et al. 2004 Nature 430768-772
(also Science 305933)
7
(No Transcript)
8
How long have we got? We have to stabilize
emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or
temperatures will warm by more than one degree.
That will be warmer than it has been for half a
million years, and many things could become
unstoppable. If we are to stop that, we cannot
wait for new technologies like capturing
emissions from burning coal. We have to act with
what we have. This decade, that means focusing on
energy efficiency and renewable sources of energy
that do not burn carbon. We don't have much time
left. Jim Hansen NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, February 2006
9
How do we defend ourselves against climate
change?....
10
Start by remembering the basic house rules for
Planet Earth

• Everything goes somewhere.
• Everything is connected.
• (You cannot do just one thing.)
• Nature is an independent power, and does not
  negotiate.

11
Environment
12
Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios
corresponding to different stabilization levels
13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
Low Emission Futures Context for a Made in
Canada Approach

• Ongoing population growth
• A large and growing fossil fuel production sector
  oriented to export markets
• Energy intensive industries (paper, metals,
  steel, industrial chemicals) important to
  Canadian economy, although in relative decline
  and also climbing value added curve in globalized
  market
• Fuel and electricity relatively inexpensive

16
(No Transcript)
17
Long term and deep emission reduction scenarios
take us outside the climate change policy box,
supports a fresh look at strategies and options
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Canada(full cycle
emission allocation)
21
Beyond Kyoto A Low Emissions Path for Canada
22
Source R. Torrie, Low Emission Scenarios in an
Expanding, Industrialized, Oil Exporting Economy
The Case of Canada. http//2050.nies.go.jp/2050sy
mpo/cop11_side/Torrie_COP11.pdf
23
JAPAN
Source Dr. Junichi Fujino, Development of Japan
Low Carbon Society Japan Low Carbon Society
Scenarios toward 2050 Scenarios toward 2050.
http//2050.nies.go.jp/2050sympo/cop11_side/Fujino
_COP11.pdf
24
GERMANY
Source Martin Weiss, Long Term Climate Policy
Scenarios for Germany. http//2050.nies.go.jp/205
0sympo/cop11_side/Weiss_COP11.pdf
25
AUSTRALIA
Source Hugh Saddler et al., A Clean Energy
Future for Australia. http//www.enerstrat.com
.au/publications.html
26
AUSTRALIA -- ELECTRICITY FUEL MIX IN 2001, 2040
BASELINE, 2040 SCENARIO 2
Source Hugh Saddler et al., A Clean Energy
Future for Australia. http//www.enerstrat.com
.au/publications.html
27
INDIA
Source PR. Shukla, Low Carbon scenarios for
India to 2050. http//2050.nies.go.jp/2050sympo
/cop11_side/Shukla_COP11.pdf
28
A Possible Made in Canada Low Emission
FutureFIVE PRIORITIES

• Continued improvements in energy productivity of
  economy, including Factor Four Efficiency gain
• Cogeneration of electricity
• Biofuels
• Carbon sequestration
• Decarbonize electricity generation

29
Collateral Benefits

• Co-benefits of emission reduction will be
  critical to success
• Reduced air pollution and improved public health
• Higher performance buildings
• Economic competitiveness in global market
• Enhanced urban environments
• Employment generation across a broad spectrum of
  skills and professions
• Technological advancement

30
Synergies

• Emission reductions are consistent with some
  exogenous trends in Canadian society these
  synergies can be exploited to promote lower
  emissions (urban redensification, refurbishment
  of post-War infrastructure, higher value added
  industrial production)

31
Implementing Low Emission Futures The Eye of
the Needle

• Low emission futures have policy implications
  well beyond conventional energy policy. They
  must be developed in a broader context of
  sustainable development
• Energy price based strategies perhaps necessary
  but not sufficient
• Technology deployment fundamentally economic, but
  constrained by underdeveloped organizational and
  financial infrastructure, entrenched advantage of
  commodity suppliers, and externalization of
  environmental costs.
• Global marketing, rapid deployment will
  characterize demand side developments.
• Local authorities must engage community
  transformation
• Climatic conditions will deteriorate for decades,
  regardless of mitigation effort

32
(No Transcript)
33
Economic, Energy and Emissions Growth in Canada,
1970-1998
34
Energy Growth in Canada, 1970-1998
35
(No Transcript)
36
(No Transcript)
37
(No Transcript)
38
(No Transcript)
39
Thank you!

• Ralph D. Torrie
• rtorrie_at_icfi.com