ADB Conference: Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector

1
ADB Conference Climate Change Mitigation in the
Transport Sector

• Emissions and Transport A Global Perspective
• Lew Fulton
• UN Environment Programme
• Nairobi, Kenya

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Role of UNEP

• United Nations Environment Program plays a
  leading role in supporting and promoting
  environmental protection world-wide
• UNEP is very involved with other agencies in
  multi-attribute assessments
• Environmental
• Energy
• Economic
• Social
• Political (policy)
• UNEP has a variety of projects and programmes
  relating to urban environment and its various
  linkages with these other concerns
• DTIE (Division of Technology, Industry and
  Energy)
• PCFV (Partnership for clean fuels and vehicles)
• DGEF (Division of GEF coordination)
• WWW.UNEP.ORG

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World Primary Energy Demand
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
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World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
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Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
6
World CO2 emissions by sector,1990-2030
The share of transport in CO2 emissions will
increase from 21 today to 23 in 2030
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
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Increase in World Oil Demand, 2004-2030
22
17
12
mb/d
7
2
OECD
Non-OECD
-3
Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
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IEA/World Energy Outlook 2004Crude Oil Price
Projections(A lot has changed in 2 years!)
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
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A Key Variable Oil Demand Growth
mb/d
3 annual growth rate
Annual demand growth
1 annual growth rate
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Though air travel energy use rises fastest, LDVs
still will use most energy
Source IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030
Study, 2004
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Car ownership will continue to rise, especially
in the developing world
Source IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030
Study, 2004
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2-wheeler growth could also be substantial
Source IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030
Study, 2004
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What do the trends mean for emissions?Projected
total Non-OECD road transport emissions if
countries eventually adopt euro-type
standardsIEA/SMP Projections Reference case
assumes a 10-year lag time all scenarios assume
fairly strong enforcement
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Changing the travel/energy use trends What are
some options?

• The following slides outline some areas for where
  we see promise
• Vehicle efficiency improvement
• Biofuels (some types, from some places)
• Improved transit systems (e.g. BRT)
• Greater attention to travel demand management and
  non-motorised modes

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Vehicle Efficiency Options

• There are many technologies available to improve
  vehicle efficiency at relatively low cost
• IEA estimates that 25 reduction in new car fuel
  use/km could be achieved by 2020 at fairly low
  cost
• Strong policies will be needed China has taken
  an important step in this regard
• Somewhat lower potential for other modes, but
  still significant
• This will save fuel but wont directly impact
  pollutant emissions (except hydro carbons to a
  small degree)

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Liquid Biofuels Overview

• Ethanol
• Can be blended to at least 10 in vehicles in
  OECD countries are blended up to 26 in Brazil
• Costs for creating fuel-flexible vehicles (can
  run on any mixture of ethanol and gasoline) are
  on the order of 100-200 per vehicle many such
  vehicles in Brazil, U.S. and Sweden
• Low-level ethanol blends reduce emissions of many
  pollutants (CO, PM), but can increase some (e.g.
  HC, aldehydes).
• Biodiesel
• Can be blended up to 100 with petroleum diesel
  in most engines, though some minor modifications
  may be required
• Biodiesel blends reduce emissions of most
  pollutants (PM, SOx) compared to petroleum diesel
  fuel, with reductions increasing with percent
  share of biodiesel

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A typology of liquid biofuels
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GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from
biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
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Ethanol Production Pastand Future?
Million litres per year
Source IEA, 2004, Biofuels for Transport An
International Perspective
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Travel Demand Management

• Any reduction in motorized travel growth rates
  reduces future emissions
• Challenge is to maximize mobility while
  minimizing emissions
• Growth in car ownership is inevitable but it can
  be slowed and alternatives provided
• A model cars in Europe are driven far less than
  in the US because of land use and travel
  alternatives

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Travel Demand Management Promising Options

• Many important measures will mention three here
• Get the prices right
• Tax vehicles and fuels in line with social costs
  
• Differential taxation based on vehicle emissions
  is a powerful tool
• Invest in strong transit systems
• Learn from Latin America well designed,
  strongly implemented BRT makes a huge difference
• Design cities to be friendly to non-motorized
  transit and pedestrians

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Bus Rapid Transit

• Full BRT
• Segregated, median busways with median
  stations
• Pre-board fare collection and fare
  verification
• Restricted operator access (closed system)
• Free transfers between corridors
• Competitively bid concessions
• High frequency service and low station dwell
  times
• Clean bus technologies
• Modal integration

Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that
mimics the rapidity and performance of metros
but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles.
Volvo
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Mass transit costs
Trams / Light rail US 10 30 million /
km Elevated rail US 50 100 million
Subways US 50 million 300 million / km
BRT US 1 5 million / km
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Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios Fuel Switching
Source Wright and Fulton, 2005, Climate Change
and Transport in Developing Nations, Transport
Reviews
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Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios Mode Switching
Source Wright and Fulton, 2005, Climate Change
and Transport in Developing Nations, Transport
Reviews
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Conclusions

• The world is likely to experience strong growth
  in fossil energy use over next 50 years
• Transport will be a key source of increased CO2
  emissions and will account for nearly all growth
  in oil use
• Vehicle efficiency improvement is a must
• Advanced biofuels are promising, but huge
  questions remain about their potential and
  environmental impacts
• Investments in high-quality bus systems and NMT
  infrastructure may provide very low cost
  emissions reductions along with other benefits
• TDM as complementary measures are also critical