Global Climate Change and Public Policy

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Global Climate Change and Public Policy
Peak Oil Professor Leonard
Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office
Powdermaker Rm 250A Email
leonard.rodberg_at_qc.cuny.edu Telephone
718-997-5134
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US Oil Production and Imports
2004
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The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal
Resource according to M. King Hubbert
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It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil
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Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production - 1956
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US Oil Production and Imports
2004
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The Paper that Started It All
Publication No. 95, Shell
Development Company, Exploration and Production
Research Division, Houston,
Texas Chief Consultant
(General Geology).
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World Energy Use by Fuel
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Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production - 1956
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The Decline of New Oil Discoveries
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Oil Production Worldwide
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The Optimists View
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Taking the Long View The History of the Human
Race according to M. King Hubbert
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Its Getting Warmer
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And the Sea Level is Rising
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Greenhouse Effect
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What are the Greenhouse Gases?

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
• Principal Source Burning of Fossil Fuels
• Oil, natural gas/methane, coal
• Hydrocarbons (CnHm)) Oxygen (O2) ? CO2
  H2O
• Also Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

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Radiative Forcing Components
Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit
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The Concentration of CO2 is Growing

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Impacts Worldwide
GLOBAL WARMING Early Warning Signs
Fingerprints and Harbingers
www.climatehotmap.org
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U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges
Source Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and
Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p.
57
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Wind Electricity
Wind Electricity
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge One million
2-MW windmills displacing coal power. Today
50,000 MW (1/40)
Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine
located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind
Industry Association)
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Photovoltaic Power
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Nuclear Electricity
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge 700 GW (twice
current capacity) displacing coal power.
Nuclear
Electricity
Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for
another half wedge.
Site Surry station, James River, VA 1625 MW
since 1972-73. Credit Dominion.
A revised goal retrievable storage Natural-U
plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing Universal
rules and international governance
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Biofuels
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Efficient Use of Electricity
Efficient Use of Electricity
lighting
motors
cogeneration
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge . 25
reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in
commercial and residential buildings
Target commercial and multifamily buildings.
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Efficient Use of Fuel
Efficient Use of Fuel
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge Note 1
car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of
carbon. 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per
year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. 2 billion cars
driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles
per year.
Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and
discourage sprawl
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Carbon Storage
Carbon Storage
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge 3500 Sleipners
_at_1 MtCO2/yr 100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for
EOR A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the
flow of oil out of the Earth today
Sleipner project, offshore Norway
Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins
Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA
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Reforestation and Land Conservation
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NYC Energy Profile 1979
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Saving Energy in NYC
Source L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village
Voice, Feb. 18, 1980
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PlaNYC Mitigation Measures
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PlaNYC Wedges
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Planning for a Major Hurricane
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Both Adaptation and MitigationMayors PlaNYC
Adapts to Some Inevitable Climate Change

• Protect our citys vital infrastructure
• Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop
  site-specific strategies
• Launch a citywide strategic planning process for
  climate change adaptation