Climate change and its implications for agricultural strategies in Africa: The case of Ethiopia

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Climate change and its implications for
agricultural strategies in Africa The case of
Ethiopia

• Alemu Mekonnen
• Asst. Prof. at Addis Ababa University and
  Research Fellow at Environment for Development
  initiative, Ethiopia
• E-mail alemu_m2004_at_yahoo.com
• Fourth African Economic Conference
• 13 November 2009, Addis Ababa

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Outline of presentation

• Impacts of climate change
• Emissions
• Climate-resilient growth/Adaptation
• Low-carbon growth/Mitigation
• Strategies and research
• Concluding remarks

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Impacts of climate change
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Impacts on Africa

• Expected to be severe in general due to
• High dependence on agriculture which is
  overwhelmingly rain-fed
• Immediate and direct effects
• Africa warming faster than global average
• Limited capacity to adapt

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Impacts of climate change

• Expected increase in proportion of arid and
  semi-arid lands in Africa (by 5-8 by the 2080s)
  and water depletion
• Reduction in yield (in some African countries up
  to 50 by 2020)
• Small scale farmers most vulnerable
• Droughts, flood, hunger more serious

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Impacts of climate change

• Effects differ across location
• Proximity to the equator and low elevation
  increase negative effects
• Most significant carbon fertilization effects may
  be in eastern and north east Africa

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Ethiopia Year-to-year variability of annual
rainfall (NMA 2008)
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Ethiopia Year-to-year annual minimum temperature
variability (in temp. differences) (NMA 2008)

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• Future climate change scenario for Ethiopia

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Three other effects

• Health affected
• by higher temperatures (via disease) and
• higher peak temperatures increase mortality
• Sea level rise (Nile delta and coastal zones)
• Infrastructure severely affected by flooding

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Rainfall variability and GDP in Ethiopia
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Research on economic impacts

• Limited rigorous studies
• Impacts depend on whether crops and livestock are
  considered
• Methodological and data issues

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Emissions
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(No Transcript)
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GHG Emissions in Ethiopia (estimates for 1994)

• 48 Mt CO2-eq(0.9t/capita) (excluding LUCF)
• Agriculture contributes 80 of the total
• CH4 contributes 80 of the total

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Climate-resilient growth/Adaptation
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Adaptation

• Adaptation predominantly by private actors in
  three forms
• Migration/moving location
• Change in sectors of employment or
• Change in technique in same sector

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Role of public action

• Government strategy needed to ensure the
  following three conditions
• adequate information
• appropriate incentives and
• conducive economic environment for investment in
  changes required

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National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) for
Ethiopia

• Identified 11 projects with an estimated cost of
  USD 770 million
• The top five in descending order of priority are
• Promote drought/crop insurance program
• Strengthen drought and flood early warning
  systems
• Develop small-scale irrigation and water
  harvesting schemes
• Improve rangeland resource management
• Community based sustainable utilization and
  management of wetlands

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Research on adaptation

• Limited rigorous studies
• Farmers and other stakeholders aware of the
  problems
• Socio-economic factors are important
• Farmers adapting in various ways

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Low-carbon growth/Mitigation
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Importance of mitigation for Africa

• Mitigation response of the rest of the world will
  have impacts on Africa
• Need to look at existing mitigation frameworks to
  address role of Africa

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International frameworks for mitigation

• Who benefits from CDM currently?
• Mainly Mexico, India and China
• Africas share (especially sub-Saharan Africa
  except South Africa) very small
• Need for increased benefits for Africa
• CDM and problems
• Multilateral funds
• REDD

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Technology needs assessment (TNA) for Ethiopia

• Under climate change TNA project concepts for
  mitigation include
• sustainable land management including
  conservation agriculture,
• cattle feed improvement,
• fuel taxes,
• energy efficiency

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Role of international community for mitigation
and adaptation

• Ethical reasons
• adverse global externalities
• limited capacities to adapt
• Practical reasons
• regional or global public goods
• technologies and implications for adaptation
• So, the victims should be compensated

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• Strategies/policies and research

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Strategies/policies

• Need climate policy and mainstreaming into the
  development agenda/poverty reduction frameworks
• Strategies need to provide support for
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Migration/moving location
• Change in sectors of employment or
• Change in technique in same sector

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Strategies/programs Ethiopia

• Agricultural Development Led Industrialization
• Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to
  End Poverty (PASDEP)
• Agricultural and rural development strategies
• New Coalition for Food Security
• Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)
• Increasing forest cover
• Sustainable land management (SLM) program
• Agricultural growth program

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Policy interaction and research

• More research and policy interaction on
• impacts of climate change
• opportunities and constraints to adaptation and
  mitigation

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Research areas

• There are a number of research areas
• Those that could be undertaken by economists
  include
• Estimating the economic impacts
• Examination of adaptation strategies and
  implications
• Cost-benefit /impact analysis of
  projects/programs (particularly for mitigation)

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Research areas

• More specific research areas in Ethiopia
• Examination of whether resources should be
  invested in low potential or high potential areas
  within agriculture
• Non-farm employment opportunities and climate
  change
• Appropriate sustainable land and watershed
  management practices

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Research areas

• Water harvesting practices
• Climate risk and household behaviour
• Crop/drought insurance
• Forestry and biodiversity
• Energy and growth/poverty reduction

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Concluding remarks
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Concluding remarks 1

• With support from the international community,
  Africa needs to focus on
• How capacity can be enhanced to adapt and benefit
  from adaptation funds
• How to mitigate emissions and benefit from
  related global frameworks

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Concluding remarks 2

• Africa victim of climate change with little
  contribution to the problem
• Big opportunities for future production of
  renewable energy
• Major and pressing needs for adaptation
  investments
• These two need international technology and major
  financial flows
• More research, capacity building and work on
  strategies/policies needed