Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progr

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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - AtlantiqueEducation
Measures in the Genuine Progress Index NZ
Ministry of EducationWellington, 23 April, 2008
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About GPI Atlantic

• Non-profit, fully independent, research and
  education organization founded April, 1997. Based
  in Halifax Web site www.gpiatlantic.org
• Committed to development of Genuine Progress
  Index (GPI) Measuring wellbeing sustainable
  development accurately and comprehensively
• Towards full-cost accounting human, social,
  natural, and produced capital accounts
• NS focus -gtNational and international activities

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Origins

• 1st GPI 1995 Redefining Progress, California
• Emerged from critique of shortcomings of
  GDP-based measures of progress (Kuznets warning)
• Distinguished from quality of life indicator
  systems by adding economic valuation
• 1995 GPI single number Statcan critique
  starting point for NS GPI (1996) as pilot for
  Canada. 12 years developmental work.

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Basic question How are we doing? What kind of NZ
are we leaving our children...?
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Current way of answering that question

• GDP-based measures of progress inadequate and can
  be dangerously misleading. e.g
• Natural resource depletion as gain
• No distinction re what is growing (e.g.
  pollution, crime US stats, sickness,
  cigarettes)
• Vital social, environmental assets value of
  unpaid work, free time, health, education, equity
  ignored

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Why We Need New Indicators - Policy Reasons

• More energy use, greenhouse gas emissions,
  consumption, drug use make economy grow not the
  signals we may want to communicate
• Preventive initiatives to conserve and use energy
  and resources sustainably, to reduce sickness,
  crime, poverty, greenhouse gas emissions, may be
  blunted, or inadequately funded

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Indicators are Powerful

• What we measure
• reflect what we value as a society
• determines what makes it onto the policy agenda
• influences behaviour (e.g. students)
• Logic not refuted From wilderness to mainstream
  OECD, EU, SNA, CIW

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Natural environment
Society
Economy
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Measuring Wellbeing
In the GPI

• Health, free time, unpaid work (voluntary and
  household), and education have value
• Sickness, crime, disasters, pollution are costs
• Natural resources (e.g. forests) are capital
  assets
• Reductions in greenhouse gas, crime, poverty,
  ecological footprint are progress
• Growing equity signals progress

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Beyond indicators and towards accounting and
policy shift e.g.

• Ideal world Neither indicators nor economic
  valuation is required Social, economic,
  environmental impacts would be taken into account
  in all decisions. BUT
• GDP is an accounting system, not indicator
  system. While economic growth statistics
  dominate, economic valuation will have most
  impact on policy
• In GPI, economic valuations add-on to
  indicators based on physical measurements brings
  wholistic indicator set into policy arena

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Examples of policy impacts

• E.g. NS voluntary work worth 1.9 bill/year
• Preventable chronic disease costs NS 500m in
  excess health care costs gt DHPP costs tobacco,
  obesity, inactivity gt e.g. HRM planning process
  smoke-free legislation
• Full CBAs e.g. Solid Waste Halifax Harbour
  cleanup HRM transportation . Etc.
• Impact on policy can be indirect (e.g. forests)

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E.g. Full transport costs

• Internal variable (Direct costs according to how
  much a person drives)
• E.g. travel time, vehicle operation
• Internal fixed (Direct costs that are not really
  changed when driving habits change)
• E.g. vehicle ownership, registration/insurance,
  parking
• External (Costs imposed on others)
• - E.g. climate change, air pollution,
  congestion
• Or direct/indirect (based on subjective
  experience)
• E.g. subsidized parking

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Per Capita and Total Estimates for Road Passenger
Transportation (C2002)
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Each cost a potential headliner E.g. Congestion
costs NS 12m/yr

• Lost time, gas, excess GHGs
• Conservative Recurrent congestion only (not
  snow, roadworks, accidents etc.), AM-PM only, no
  freight, arterials only (no side-streets), based
  on lt50 posted limit, etc.
• Small portion total costs

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Average Car Costs (per vehicle-km) Ranked by
Magnitude
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Aggregate Distribution of Costs for an Average
Car
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Full-Cost Accounting Results

• Overall full cost of N.S. road transportation
  system in 2002 6.4 billion - 13.3 billion
• True cost is about 7,598/capita, of which 4,562
  are invisible costs
• Fixed and external costs account for over 2/3 of
  total cost
• These results indicate an inefficient,
  unsustainable transportation system where
  externalities conceal the full costs to society

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Results

• Implementation of the Solid Waste-Resource
  Strategy led to an increase in operating and
  amortized costs from 48.6 million (53/capita)
  in the 1996-97 fiscal year to 72.5 million
  (77/capita) in the 2000-01 fiscal year.
• An increased cost of 24 million (25/capita) for
  implementing the changes conventional accounts
  stop there

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Full cost Accounting Results

• The new NS solid waste-resource system in 2000-01
  produced net savings of at least 31.2 million,
  when compared to the old 1996-97 solid
  waste-resource system
• This translates into savings of 33 for each Nova
  Scotian, versus a cost of 25 as suggested when
  comparing strictly the operating and amortized
  capital costs of the two systems

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Benefits

• Total benefits of 2000-01 system range from 79
  million to 221 million 84-236 pp, incl
• 3.3 - 84.3 million in GHG emission reductions
• 9 - 67 million in air pollutant reductions
• 18.8 million in extended landfill life
• 28.6 million in energy savings from recycling
• 6.5 - 8.9 million in employment benefits
• 1.2 - 1.9 million in avoided liability costs
• 1.1 - 1.7 million in export revenue of goods
  and services
• 187,000 in additional tourism

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Energy savings per tonne of waste recycled
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Costs

• Total costs of 2000-01 solid waste-resource
  system were 96.6-102.7 million
• 72.4 m. in operating and amortized capital costs
• 14.3 m. for beverage container recycling prog.
• 2.7 million for used tire management program
• 1.6 million in RRFB operating and admin costs
• 5 - 9.5 million to increase participation
• 220,000 - 1.8 million in nuisance costs

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Conclusions

• 1995 NS Solid Waste-Resource Strategy has led to
  a considerable net benefit, both in monetary and
  non-monetary terms
• 1) The solid waste-resource system in 2000-01,
  despite increased operating and amortized capital
  costs, provided a net savings of between 31
  million and 167.7 million compared to the
  operating and amortized capital costs of the old
  system

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Conclusions

• 2) Nova Scotia is a leader both internationally
  and nationally in solid waste diversion.
• 3) The accessibility, comprehensiveness, and
  levels of waste being composted and recycled have
  all improved since the introduction of the Solid
  Waste-Resource Strategy.

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This is Genuine Progress

• Access to curbside recycling in Nova Scotia
  jumped from less than 5 in 1989 to 99 today
• 76 of residents now have access to curbside
  organics pickup
• Both are by far the highest rates in the country

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The Genuine Progress Index - 85 detailed reports
to date

• Time Use
• Economic Value of Unpaid Childcare and Housework
  v
• Economic Value of Civic and Voluntary Work v
• Value of Leisure Time v
• Working Time and Employment v

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Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Components

• Natural Capital
• Soils and Agriculture (3 v 2 )
• Forests v
• Marine Environment/Fisheries v
• Water Resources / Water Quality v
• Energy v
• Air Quality v

• Human Impact on the Environment
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions v
• Sustainable Transportation v
• Ecological Footprint Analysis v
• Solid Waste v

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Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Components

• Living Standards
• Income Distribution v
• Debt and Assets .
• Economic Security .

• Social and Human Capital
• Population Health v
• Educational Attainment v
• Costs of Crime v

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Most used education measures tell us more about
labour market conditions than about educational
attainment send conflicting messages.

• E.g. Alberta has lowest high school graduation
  rate and second highest drop out rate in Canada
  (because lucrative jobs are available), but the
  highest standardized test results (partly because
  higher performers remain in school).
• Atlantic Canada has the lowest drop out rates,
  the highest graduation rates, yet scores the
  lowest on standardized test results.

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Explaining the Difference

• 2003 CMEC data Alberta graduation rate 10
  below Nova Scotia. Difference between Nova Scotia
  and Alberta PISA scores just under 10.
• Dr. Michael Corbett (Acadia Educ.) By having a
  more exclusive high school system Alberta adjusts
  underperforming students out of the school door
  and into the workforce. As it happens Alberta has
  an economy that can absorb a considerable amount
  of educational underachievement. Here in Nova
  Scotia we don't have that luxury.

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Standardized tests -- what do they measure?

• Not at population level Also reflect labour
  market conditions i.e. who remains in school to
  be tested
• Scores often reflect and reinforce socio-economic
  inequalities
• Tests focus on a few academic subject areas --
  math, science, reading/writing. Are these more
  important than art, history, or social studies?
• Standardized testing pressures teachers to teach
  to the test, at expense of other non-test
  subjects
• Standardized test results can be misused and
  manipulated to support calls for questionable
  reform

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Average scores in PISA math assessment by
quartile of family socioeconomic status,
15-year-olds, Canada, 2003
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What these quantitative output measures dont
tell us outcomes

• How educated the populace is, and whether we are
  getting wiser and more knowledgeable
• Whether were learning what we need to know to
  live well and sustainably, improve our
  wellbeing
• What and how we learn from non-school sources
  (media, family, community etc.)
• Anything about the quality of education, and the
  quality of information in the learning
  environment .Etc.

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So What is an Educated Populace?

• An Educated Populace has the knowledge and
  skills required to foster wellbeing in
  individuals and in the population as a whole
• that is to live full and healthy lives, have
  decent jobs, participate actively in their
  communities as citizens, and understand the
  interdependence of the world in which they live,
  without imperiling these prospects for future
  generations.

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Framework for indicators of an educated populace
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YETLiteracy flat, despite more schooling

• More analytical work is required to explore the
  factors around the lack of overall change in the
  literacy performance of Canadians. (Statistics
  Canada)
• We urgently need to understand why our current
  literacy and learning programs are not succeeding
  in order to develop more effective approaches.
  (Canadian Council on Learning)

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Average prose literacy scores Canada, aged 16,
1994 2003
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Average document literacy scores Canada, age 16
, 1994 2003
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Percentile scores of correct answers to general
political knowledge questions, by age group,
1984, 1993, 1997, 2000
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Ecological Literacy? Footprint by Educational
Attainment, Canada, 2005 (1st time)
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Average debt from government student loans at
graduation, classes of 1995 and 2000 (2000)
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Average amount borrowed (all sources) for 2003
degree, post-2003 degree education or both,
Maritime provinces, 2005
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Average undergraduate university tuition fees,
Canada, 1990/1991, 2005/2006, 2007/2008 (2005)
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Employment rate of full-time students, 2024
years of age, Canada, 19762006
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Average work hours/week during school year,
full-time students, aged 1824, Canada, 19762006
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Advertising in Canadas public elementary and
secondary schools (), 2003/2004
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Public versus private share of sponsored research
at Canadian universities, 19722005
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Where to from Here? Whats Next? Key Messages

1. We have not answered the question How educated
   are Nova Scotians?
2. Conventional output indicators cant do so
3. Development of new indicators, data sources,
   measurement methods is needed a paradigm
   shift (NS Education Dept.)
4. See Report Appendix Comprehensive list of
   ideal indicators ( full literature review and
   detailed report on potential indicators 3000pp
   to be released fall, 2008)

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The Good News

• 3 years GPI research uncovered good models,
  measures of science literacy, health literacy,
  media literacy, civic literacy, ecological
  literacy, wisdom scales, informal learning, ETC.
  Available in other places, not yet Canada
• -gt Canadian Knowledge Survey (11 literacies)
• Good education indicators glue, binding factor,
  connective tissue between all GPI components
  link learning outcomes to social outcomes e.g.
  health, civic, ecological literacy, etc.

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Next Steps - (A) Complete detailed, separate
components

• Released 08 Education, HRM transportation
  Complete last 3 components by June 08
• 90 detailed reports Most complete data set
  available to any jurisdiction in North America to
  measure wellbeing and sustainable devt
• Statcan advice bottom up, methodological, data
  integrity. Withstand expert scrutiny.
  Transparency, references.

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Next steps (B) Integration

• Now -gt policy utility, integration, update
• Headline indicators community (May 08)
• Database easily updatable, replicable (Jul.08)
• Headline indicators provincial (Sept. 08)
• Oct. 08 Major release Formal presentation to
  Premier, Government, and People of NS Landmark
  moment in evolution of GPI

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Therefore communication

• Must speak effectively to 3 audiences
• Experts (credibility as basis)
• Policy audience
• General public (use of media)
• Infiltration over time vs one big release Water
  against a rock (others including govt. cite GPI
  s as own radio talk shows)

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Different GPIs Shared principles, objectives,
strategy

• Shared critique of GDP-based measures
• Shared understanding of inter-related nature of
  reality, and need to integrate social,
  environmental, and economic measures in a
  comprehensive system
• Shared strategy of using economic valuations
  (conversation with Redefining Progress)

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Different GPI Methods, Approaches

• Monetization of all variables vs view that many
  measures not amenable to monetization (-gt
  comprehensiveness)
• Aggregation or not (-gt communication, doorway,
  weighting, and policy utility)
• Top-down framework vs bottom-up (eg by
  component, forest example, educ. framework)

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Different GPI Methods, Approaches

• Start with personal consumption add household
  work? (-gt challenge growth paradigm? a green
  GDP? replace GDP?)
• Range of technical issues (stocks vs flows, etc.)
• Communication All at once vs infiltration

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Politics and UptakeMeasuring progress is
normative

• But GPI based on consensus values
• Economic and livelihood security
• Health, free time
• Educational attainment
• Strong and safe communities
• Clean environment, healthy natural resources

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Political implications

• Non-partisan Evidence-based decision making
• Good news (e.g. waste, air quality, seniors,
  employment) Bad news (e.g. GHGs, old forests)
  Improvements (e.g. income dist.)
• Consensus on goals, vision. Politics is about how
  to get there. E.g. GHG reductions, poverty
  reduction goal vs strategy
• Comparisons NS, Canada, Provinces, Intl

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Positive Approach Can we do it?Percentage Waste
Diversion in Nova Scotia
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Challenges to Policy Adoption

• Long-term vs short-term returns on health
  promotion policy 25-30 years from now
• Cost savings hard to demonstrate without
  paradigm shift away from prolonging life, address
  dying well (Bhutan)
• Science as certainty vs precautionary
  principle Materialism / consumption addiction vs
  contentment, enough.

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But time is right E.g. NS Govt commitments
2006-08

• Demonstrate international leadership by having
  one of the cleanest and most sustainable
  environments in the world by the year 2020 (Bill
  146 Environmental Goals and Sustainable
  Prosperity Act
• Becoming the best place to live means scoring
  well on quality of life indicators like those
  produced by Genuine Progress Index Atlantic
  (Opportunities for Sustainable Prosperity. 2006)
• Power of Green Conference, 2007 (Ec. Devt)

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Maintain and update GPI

• Strongly recommend period of study, reflection,
  consultation
• Took nearly 12 years to get here, another year to
  investigate application appropriate e.g.
  interdepartmental task force
• Understand methods and data sources, select
  appropriate indicators
• NS Govt will report GPI results (Community
  Counts)

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Data considerations

• New database key to easy updating, comparison,
  replication
• Data sources (a) official/available mostly
  Statcan (b) provincial e.g. forest
  inventories, waste diversion -gt development (c)
  new surveys (e.g. education) (d) local data
  (Community GPI)
• Time, money, resources depend on indicator
  selection. But cf resources required for GDP How
  often is that needed?

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Data challenges

• National vs local / community
• Conceptual inadequacies (indicator choices)
• E.g. education We could not answer the question
  How educated are Nova Scotians?
• Conventional output indicators cant do so
• Development of new indicators, data sources,
  measurement methods is needed multiple
  literacies
• Comprehensive list of ideal indicators

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Conclusion

• GPI key tool to achieve sustainability, health
  promotion targets, because it measures progress
  in way that joins social, health, economic
  environmental objectives, and accounts for true
  benefits and costs
• Measuring progress towards objectives is an
  essential mark of genuine commitment to those
  goals and objectives
• NZ has potential to become genuine model

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GPI Measuring what we value to leave a wiser NZ
for our children
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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - Atlantique

• www.gpiatlantic.org