Recent Development of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPSTM)

1
Recent Development of the Coupled
Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
(COAMPSTM)

• J. Doyle, S. Chen, R. Hodur, T. Holt, M. Liu, K.
  Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, S. Wang, D. Westphal, J.
  Cummings, X. Hong, and J. Pullen
• Naval Research Laboratory
• Introduction
• Recent Development
• Atmospheric model
• Ocean model
• Future Plans

2
Navy Mesoscale Modeling Strategy Telescoping
Systems Strategy for Mission Success

• NOGAPS (Fleet Numerical)
• Global coverage
• 110d forecaster guidance

• COAMPS (Fleet Numerical)
• High resolution, nested regional coverage
• 0-72h forecaster guidance

Observations
BC, IC
Local Model Output

• DAMPS (Regional Centers)
• On-scene tactical-scale weather
• 0-48h forecaster guidance

Data Fusion AI Nowcast
On-Scene Obs

• COAMPS-OS (Shipboard-NITES)
• Battlegroup data assimilation system
• 6-12h data assimilation cycle

On-Scene Obs
Battlespace Awareness Cube

• Nowcast (Shipboard-NITES)
• Real-time, automatic, 4D data fusion
• Warfighter time space requirements
• Common situational awareness

TDAs
3
Navy Strategy COAMPS Flexibility in System
Design
Single CM System Open-MP / MPI Shared or
Distributed Memory Architectures
Ocean Data Assimilation System
Atmospheric Data Assimilation System
4
COAMPS Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale
Prediction System Atmospheric Components

• Complex Data Quality Control
• Analysis
• Multivariate Optimum Interpolation Analysis
  (MVOI) (Near Future 3D Var)
• Initialization
• Hydrostatic Constraint on Analysis Increments
  Digital Filter
• Atmospheric Model
• Numerics Nonhydrostatic, Scheme C, Nested Grids,
  Sigma-z, Flexible Lateral BCs
• Parameterizations PBL, Convection, Explicit
  Moist Physics, Radiation, Sfc Layer
• Features
• Globally Relocatable (5 Map Projections)
• User-Defined Grid Resolutions, Dimensions, and
  Number of Nested Grids
• 6 or 12 Hour Incremental Data Assimilation Cycle
• Can be Used for Idealized or Real-Time
  Applications
• Single Configuration Managed System for All
  Applications
• Operational at FNMOC
• 9 Areas, Twice Daily, using 81/27/9 km or 81/27
  km grids
• Forecasts to 72 hours
• Operational at all Navy Regional Centers (w/ GUI
  Interface)

5
NRL Background in Community Modeling

• Began development of COAMPS in 1988
• Began distribution to limited research community
  in 1995
• Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• University of Oklahoma
• North Carolina State University
• Jackson State University
• Desert Research Institute
• U. S. Army Research Laboratory
• Began operations in 1997
• FNMOC
• Navy Regional Centers
• COAMPS Process Action Team (PAT) recommended
  general release of COAMPS in 2000
• Release via Web open to all
• Support for release now funded

• Naval Postgraduate School
• San Diego Supercomputer Center
• Oregon State University
• NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
• Goddard Space Flight Center
• Tulane University

6
COAMPS Recent Development

• Atmospheric Model
• NAVDAS
• Moist physics
• Aerosols
• Moving nests
• Land surface processes
• Upper Boundary Condition
• Ocean Model
• Analysis
• Forecast
• WAM

7
NAVDAS Navy Atmospheric Variational Data
Assimilation System

• cast in observation space

• vertical profiles are transformed into
  coefficients
• of background error correlation eigenvectors
  (10-25 fold speedup)

• non-separable error correlation functions
  providing scale-length
• variations with height and location

• correlation functions can be defined on
  isentropic surfaces
• (along dry air flow)

• error correlations have scale dependence

• operates on all grids for NOGAPS and COAMPS

global
regional

• uses Message Passing Interface for Massively
  Parallel Computers

• directly assimilates measured quantities SSM/I
  wind speed, TOVS
• radiances, SSM/I precipitable water

8
Adjustments to COAMPS Bulk Microphysics

• Original RH83 scheme lacked secondary ice
  nucleation, CCN, drizzle, aggregates, and
  liquid to ice conversions (homogeneous freezing,
  graupel and/or hail production)
• Modified Adjustment to Saturation Scheme
• Implicit solution for T,q (Soong and
  Ogura, 1974)
• Normalized microphysical rates
• Modified ice nucleation (Meyers et al. 1992
  Hallet and Mossop, 1974)
• Allow nonzero fall speed for pristine ice
• Implemented various autoconversion schemes
• Implemented the RH84 graupel scheme and
  homogeneous freezing
• Adapted the two-moment Khairoutdinov and Kogan
  (2000) drizzle
• parameterization (originally implemented by
  Dave Mechem, OU)
• Modified the turbulence closure for mixed-phase
  clouds
• Implemented a Hybrid time scheme
• (Clark 1979 Smolarkiewicz and Clark,
  1986 Tripoli 1992
• Wicker and Wilhelmson 1995)
• Implemented a forward positive definite advection
  scheme (Bott, 1989)
• Developing a full two-moment mixed-phase
  microphysics scheme
• (Reisner et al., 1998 Meyers et al.,
  1997 KK 2000 )
• Coupling cloud microphysics with aerosol
  model(s)

9
Original RH83 Scheme
RFC Analysis
Modified Scheme

Moist Physics Comparisons Winter-time
Precipitation (mm) 24 Hour COAMPS Grid
3 Forecast Valid 01/25/02
10
COAMPS CONUS One-Week (20020125-20020201)
Precipitation Scores
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Addition of Aerosol Microphysics to COAMPS

• Objective COAMPS with interactive clouds,
  radiation and aerosols
• Goal COAMPS predictions of dust storms as
  weather events for strategic, tactical,
• surveillance, and operational uses
• Approach
• Include source, dry deposition, and wet removal
  terms for dust (COAMPS already has accurate
  tracer transport code)
• Use remote sensing to improve specification of
  dust source areas
• Validate model forecasts of occurrence and
  intensity of dust events in Southwest Asia region
  for spring 2002

12
Simulated Orographic Rainfall Structure
Rain water (g/kg) 21600 sec
Rain water (g/kg) 21600 sec
Aerosol Concentration / cm3
Aerosol Concentration / cm3
Marine Environment
Continental Environment
Aerosol Void
Aerosol Void
13
Mt. Etna Ash Plume
COAMPS Transport Simulation 24-h forecast Valid
12 UTC 24 July 2001 Color Mass Load (kg m-2)
SeaWiFS Satellite Image 24 July 2001
14
COAMPS MPI Moving Nests Hurricane Gordon 00Z
September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000
Nest 2 36 h forecast valid 12 UTC 18 September
2000
Sea level pressure (hPa)
Moving Nest Option
Fixed Nest Option
10-m wind speed (m/s)
(m/s)
0
4
8
12
16
20
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Proposed COAMPS Land Surface Model (LSM) System

• DATABASES
• Vegetation type (USGS 1-km global)
• Soil texture (1-km USDA STATSGO 1o GED)

Seasonal variation (satellite-derived NDVI)
LSM
Meteorological model input T,q, ps, u,v, precip.
LW, SW radiation
LSM processes
A precipitation B condensation C on
vegetation D on bare soil E transpiration F
canopy water evaporation G direct soil
evaporation H evaporation from open water I
deposition/sublimation to/from snow pack J
turbulent heat flux to/from snow
pack/soil/plant canopy K soil heat flux L
interflow M internal soil flux N
gravitational flow O internal moisture flux P
soil moisture flux Q runoff R dust
processes S urban effects
S
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Urban Canopy Parameterization

• Originally developed by Brown and Williams
  (1998), modified
• by Chin et al. (2000)

(2) Turbulence production
(1) Momentum loss
(3) Radiation absorption

• Roof albedo (a) 0.22
• Roof emissivity (e) 0.91
• Roof heat capacity (Croof) 9.681 e4
• Roof drag coefficient (CDroof) 7.1e-3
• Urban drag coefficient (Cd) 1.2e-2
• Extinction coefficient (k) 0.1
• Bowen ratio (Br) 1.5
• Canopy area density (a(z)) linear in z

(4) Surface energy budget
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
17
COAMPS Upper Boundary Conditon Linear Hydrostatic
Gravity Wave Test
Analytic Solution
Rigid Lid (wtop0)
w (105 m s-1)
w (105 m s-1)
Radiation Condition (KlempDurran)
MM5 Local Radiation Condition
w (105 m s-1)
w (105 m s-1)
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COAMPS Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale
Prediction System Ocean Components

• Data Quality Control
• Analysis
• 2D MVOI of Sea Surface Temp on All Grids
• 3D MVOI Analysis of Temperature, Salinity,
  Surface Height, Sea Ice, Currents
• Ocean Model Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)
• Numerics Hydrostatic, Scheme C, Nested Grids,
  Hybrid Sigma/z
• Parameterizations Mellor-Yamada 2.5
• Features
• Globally Relocatable (5 Map Projections)
• User-Defined Grid Resolutions, Dimensions
• Can be Used for Idealized or Real-Time
  Applications
• Single Configuration Managed System for All
  Applications
• Loosely coupled to COAMPS atmospheric model
• Strategy for testing coupled system
• construct a Mesoscale Atm-Ocean Data Assimilation
  System for the Med. Sea
• quantify the skill of system
• examine the Adriatic Sea at high resolution as a
  test-bed for coupling strategies

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NCOM Forecasts
Surface Velocity (cm/s)
5 Oct 1999
3 Oct 1999
1 Oct 1999
Sea Surface Temperature (C)
5 Oct 1999
3 Oct 1999
1 Oct 1999
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Coupled COAMPS/WAM Simulation of TC
Bonnie Significant Wave Height (m)
24-h Forecast Valid at 1200 UTC 24 August 1998
(Dx6 km)
NASA Scanning Radar Altimetry
Uncoupled
Coupled
12.8
10.9


Wright et al. (2000)
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Future Plans

• Development and Implementation of
• 3D variational analysis (NAVDAS)
• aerosol model
• air-ocean coupled system
• land-surface model (LSM) (NOAH)
• improved microphysical parameterization
• improved Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 BL Param.
• incorporation of WRF KF scheme
• LES Option
• mesoscale verification
• efficiency improvements

22
Future Plans

• COAMPS and WRF Comparisons
• Idealized Simulations
• Real Data Simulations
• Interchange of Key COAMPS/WRF Modules
• Collaboration With WRF Community
• Land Surface Model (NOAH)
• Physical Parameterization Numerical Techniques
• Ocean/Atmosphere Coupling Methods
• Tropical Cyclones
• Efficiency/MPI Issues
• Proposed Next Generation Micro-a Scale Model

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COAMPS FNMOC Operational Areas
As of February 25, 2002
27 km
27 km
Europe
W_Atl
81 km
81 km
27 km
W_Pac
81 km
27 km
E_Pac
81 km
9 km
27 km
27 km
Southwest_Asia
Conus
81 km
81 km
9 km
27 km
27 km
27 km
Cent_Am
81 km
Area 1
Arabian Sea
81 km
81 km
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NAAPS/NOGAPS Simulates Large-scale Dust Storms
TOMS Aerosol Index
NAAPS Aerosol Optical Depth
red sulfate green dust blue - smoke
SeaWiFS True Color image

13 February, 2001
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Dust Storms A Recurring, Worldwide
ProblemMobilization and Transport Controlled by
Mesoscale Dynamics
Korea, 31 March, 2001
Africa Coast, 21 April, 2001
Arabian Sea, 7 December, 1999
Mediterranean, 18 April, 2001
SeaWiFS images from Kuring/GSFC
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COAMPS MPI Moving Nest Software Development

• Software developed using MPI
• Makes use of existing COAMPS nesting software
• Advantages
• Allows for smaller nests (less resources
  required)
• Flexibility in movement of nests
• Namelist specified options
• Battle group option (target times/locations)
• User specified grid point movement
• Nests automatically move together
• Automated tropical cyclone movement option (under
  development)

Recent Developments of the Coupled
Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
(COAMPS), Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes
29
COAMPS MPI Moving Nest Software Development
(1,n)
(1,n)
(1,n)
(m,n)
(m,n)
(m,n)
Fixed Nest 1 (m x n) points
3 x 3 domain decomposition
2 Halo Points
Moveable Nest 2 Time t0
(1,1)
(m,1)
(1,1)
(m,1)
(1,1)
(m,1)
Recent Developments of the Coupled
Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
(COAMPS), Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes
30
COAMPS CONUS Model Grid Setup
Pacific Northwest (PNW)
Mississippi River Basin (MRB)
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COAMPS CONUS 2001 Cold Season (20011113-20020430)
Precipitation Scores
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COAMPS CONUS Regional One-Week (20020125-20020201)
Precipitation Scores
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COAMPS CONUS One-Week (20020125-20020201)
Precipitation Scores
34
COAMPS Availability

• Download COAMPS
• http//www.nrlmry.navy.mil/projects/coamps/index.h
  tml

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NAVDAS Nested COAMPS
Wind speed analysis
300 mb
12 km
36 km

• Innovations (ob-bckgnd) computed using highest
  resolution COAMPS background available for each
  observation
• Single merged analysis grid vectors formed by
  combination of all the nested grid points
• Analysis corrections added back to each nested
  grid on vertical sigma_z model levels
• Display on pressure levels

108 km
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COAMPS MPI Moving Nests Hurricane Gordon 00Z
September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000 Moving Nest
Option is 2.7x Faster on O2K
37
COAMPS Dipole Jewel 5 Simulations Impact of
Increased Horizontal Resolution
10-m dosage (arbitrary units) and model terrain
(m) 26-h forecast (valid 02 UTC 29 Oct)
Nest 3 (3 km)
Nest 4 (1 km)
Nest 2 (9 km)
log
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Control Simulations
38
COAMPSTM Urban 2000 Simulations
Salt Lake City Nest 4 1-km resolution (49 x 49
km) 12-h fcsts
20
4
10-m air temp
10-m wind speed
bias 0.865, 0.099 rms 1.712, 1.391
bias 0.103, 0.966 rms 0.394, 1.197
3
15
BG
2
10
1
5
Urban too warm at night
0
20
5
Reduction and improvement in day and nighttime
winds
bias -0.292, 0.309 rms 0.856, 0.991
bias 0.470, -0.441 rms 2.972, 2.849
15
RW
3
m/s
deg C
10
2
1
5
Little daytime difference
0
5
4
15
SLC
3
10
2
1
5
0
12
00
12
00
12
UTC
12
00
12
00
12
UTC
16 Oct
17 Oct
18 Oct
16 Oct
17 Oct
18 Oct
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Coupled COAMPS/WAM
Two-Way Coupling - Important in Boundary Layer
(Janssen et al. 1989) - Improved Model Climate
(Viterbo and Janssen 1996) - Extratropical
Cyclones (Doyle 1995 Lalbebarry et al. 2000
Lionello et al. 1998) - ECMWF/WAM Coupled
System ( Janssen et al. 2001) WAM (Cycle 4)
(WAMDI Group 1988) Wave Spectrum Predicted
From Energy Balance Equation F(w,q) 2d
Wave Variance Spectrum Coupling Methodology
(Janssen 1989 Janssen 1991) COAMPS (zo,
Fluxes, e, Kh, m, t, U10) WAM (a)
zoaU2/g, where ab(1-tw/t)-0.5
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COAMPS Atmospheric Forcing
Surface Wind Stress (dynes/cm2)
1 Oct 1999
5 Oct 1999
3 Oct 1999
Surface Heat Flux (W/m2)
1 Oct 1999
3 Oct 1999
5 Oct 1999
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COAMPS Dipole Jewel 5 Simulations Nest4
Transport
Observed Cloud Track to
T105 min.
1-km Land-use Simulation
DTRA
Asterisks every 5 min from 2145-2330 UTC 28 Oct 98
24-h forecast valid 0000 UTC 29 Oct 98