THE GLOBEC GOAL To advance our understanding of the structure and functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to forecast the responses of the marine

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THE GLOBEC GOALTo advance our understanding of
the structure and functioning of the global ocean
ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response
to physical forcing so that a capability can be
developed to forecast the responses of the marine
ecosystem to global change.
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GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES PICES- Climate Change and
Carrying Capacity ICES- Cod and Climate
Change Southern Ocean GLOBEC Small Pelagic
fish And Climate Change
RESEARCH FOCI 1 - Retrospective Analysis WG 2 -
Process Studies WG 3 - Prediction and Modelling
WG 4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG
GLOBEC I.P.O.
Multinational Activities
National Activities
Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway,
Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, USA, UK
BENEFIT (S. AFRICA NATFISH (N. AFRICA) OFCCP
(Eq. Pacific) LIFECO (EC TASC (EC)
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REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)
This programme investigates the effect of climate
variability on cod stock fluctuations, ranging
from the effects of small-scale turbulence on
encounter rates between fish larvae and their
prey, to large-scale effects of inter-decadal
changes in wind fields on circulation and
transport of heat and young fish.
Cod catches have followed environmental trends in
recent decades. Has fishing limited the capacity
of cod to respond to favourable environments?
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REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC)
This activity develops a theoretical and
mathematical framework which extends the concept
of carrying capacity into the multi-species
ecosystem domain. It addresses how climate change
affects ecosystem structure and the productivity
of key biological species at all trophic levels
in the North Pacific.
1.0
Shrimp
Cod/ Pollock
0.6
Flatfish
0.2
Other
1971
1962
1998
1953
1989
1980
The community structure of the North Pacific has
changed over the last decades. How is this
affecting the functioning of the system?
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REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)
This programme is focused on understanding how
physical forces influence population dynamics and
predator/ prey interactions between key species.
Antarctic krill has peaks of abundance on
good-ice years. How do climate fluctuations
(and thus ice cover) affect krill and its
predators?
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REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)
The long-range goal is to forecast how the
productivity of small pelagic fish populations
will be altered by climate variability and
change. SPACC will involve process studies, based
on comparisons of standard measurements from
different ecosystems, and retrospective studies
built around palaeoecological and genetic data.
Pelagic fish globally seem to fluctuate in
synchrony. What drives this patterns?
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GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES PICES- Climate Change and
Carrying Capacity ICES- Cod and Climate
Change Southern Ocean GLOBEC Small Pelagic
fish And Climate Change
RESEARCH FOCI 1 - Retrospective Analysis WG 2 -
Process Studies WG 3 - Prediction and Modelling
WG 4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG
GLOBEC I.P.O.
Multinational Activities
National Activities
Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway,
Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, USA, UK
BENEFIT (S. AFRICA NATFISH (N. AFRICA) OFCCP
(Eq. Pacific) LIFECO (EC TASC (EC)
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GLOBEC Focus 4 Feedbacks from Changes in
Marine Ecosystem Structure General Objective
To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric,
terrestrial and social global change research
programmes to estimate feedbacks from changes in
marine ecosystem structure to the global earth
system
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• GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3
• Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems
• Working Group Goals
• To understand the interactions between marine
  coastal communities and global changes in marine
  ecosystems
• To understand the capacity of these communities
  to adjust to these changes
• To understand the consequences of these
  adjustments for marine ecosystems.

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• Several issues complicate study of these
  interactions
• Scale
• What are the scales at which marine ecosystems
  and coastal communities interact?
• What are the scales of environmental change
  compared with scales on which humans have the
  ability to change and adapt.
• How to move between scales when the drivers are
  global but the impacts local?
• Knowledge
• Open and Closed knowledge systems e.g.
  publicly available, local knowledge, or
  group-based.
• How best to exchange and to incorporate
  scientific and local knowledge into
  decision-making?
• Values
• How to assign value to ecosystem states, e.g. is
  an system which supports Atlantic cod inherently
  better than one that supports northern shrimp?

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Example case study Atlantic cod in Newfoundland
Example case study Atlantic cod in Newfoundland

• The collapse of cod has been severe social
  disruption in Newfoundland. In addition to the
  social displacements, there have been changes in
  the ways that coastal communities use the marine
  ecosystems
• have expanded into previously un-fished species,
• have expanded into new locations,
• are using previous fishing grounds for species
  other than cod.
• Result is potential for significant negative
  impacts on the marine ecosystem, and on the
  recovery of cod.

Source The Newfoundland Fishery A Descriptive
Analysis Noel Roy (Memorial University) Symposium
on the Efficiency of North Atlantic Fisheries
Iceland, September 12-13, 1997 http//www.ucs.mun.
ca/noelroy/NfFishery.text.html
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• Working Group Approach
• Develop a review/appraisal paper on the topic
  What are the impacts of marine ecosystem changes
  on coastal communities?.
• Case studies might include Peru and changes
  induced by El Nino oscillations NW Atlantic
  groundfish collapses
• Explore significant issues, starting with
  Scale (a MS has been submitted)
• Develop models coupling marine ecosystem changes
  with the socio-economic system.
• Develop active links with other relevant
  programs,
• e.g. GECaFS, by exploring these issues for the
  marine ecosystems of Peru, Chile and Ecuador or
  possibly the Caribbean?

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Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at
national or Regional level
USA Canada Mexico Peru Chile Brazil Angola Namibia
South Africa Morocco Mauritania Senegal Australia
New Zealand New Caledonia Japan Korea China Russi
a Ukraine Turkey Spain Portugal Italy Germany Fran
ce UK Netherlands Denmark Norway
For more information Contact Manuel Barange
(GLOBEC Executive Officer), globec_at_pml.ac.uk, or
Ian Perry (Focus 4 co-chair), Perryi_at_pac.dfo-mpo.g
c.ca. www.globec.org