North Dakotas Changing Demographics

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North Dakotas Changing Demographics
Red River Valley Research Corridor Steering
Committee Meeting Fargo, ND February 21, 2006

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

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Presentation Objective
1. To offer a brief overview of shifting
demographics in the state.
2. To highlight economic indictors associated
with the technology sector
3. To begin a dialogue of future challenges
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Percentage Change in Total PopulationU.S.
Counties 1990 to 2000
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Population

• North Dakotas population peaked in 1930 at
  680,845.
• The July 1, 2004 population estimate for North
  Dakota totaled 634,366, an increase of 966
  persons from 2003.

Source U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
the Population Estimates Branch,
http//www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
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North Dakota
Cass County
McIntosh County
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Population Density
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Change in Farm Youth Ages 0 to 17 inNorth
Dakota, 1970 to 2000
1970 to 2000 -82.3
-46.6 Change
-48.8 Change
-32.9 Change
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census.
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Total Population Projected Percent Change in
Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 20 to 34 as a Percent of the Total
Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
North Dakota State University, IACC Building,
Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone (701)
231-8621 - Fax [phone] - URL
http//www.ndsu.edu/sdc
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N.D. Gross State Product by Industry, 1979 and
2004
Source U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Total Personal Income in North Dakota by Source
1969 to 2003
Thousands of Dollars (000)
Note Data exclude income from dividends,
interest, and rent and income from private
pension programs. Source U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, REIS
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The New Economy Paradigm
(C.K. Wong, Chinese General Chamber of Commerce)

• Industrial Age
• Old Paradigm
• Mass Production
• Mass Media
• Mass Marketing
• Economy of Scale

• Information Age
• New Paradigm
• Customized Production
• Individualize Presentation
• One-to-One Marketing
• Economy of Scope

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Service-producing industries continue to lead
employment growth
Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Goods-producing
Service-producing
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Projected 2000-2010 employment growth in services
Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Gross State Product

• North Dakotas Gross State Product totaled 22.7
  billion in 2004.
• The Information industry, along with Professional
  and Technical services captured 7.4 of that
  total in 2004, or nearly 1.7 billion (a 54.5
  increase from 1.1 billion in 1997.

Source U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Regional Economic Accounts, www.bea.gov/regional/g
sp.htm
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College Graduates

• Nearly 46 of 2003 North Dakota University System
  graduates were employed within North Dakota one
  year after graduation.
• The median wage for these 2003 graduates working
  full time in North Dakota was 2,329 per month.

Source North Dakota University System,
Follow-up Report 2004 Placements of 2003 NDUS
Graduates, November 2005, http//www.ndus.edu/rep
orts/default.asp?ID357
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Migration

• North Dakotas out-migration has slowed
  significantly during the first half of the 2000s.
• Between 2000 and 2001, North Dakota lost a net of
  nearly 8,000 people due to migration, a number
  reduced to less than 700 between 2003 and 2004.

Source U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
Branch, http//www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
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N.D. Labor Force, by Generation
Source Census Bureau North Dakota State Data
Center
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2000 Census Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Traditional
Babyboom
X Generation
Y Generation
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2000Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
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The Elderly 65 plus
Persons Age 65 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS2000 to 2010 2000 to
2020(Source U.S. Census Bureau)
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Demographic Presentation 2006

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone]
• Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc