Demographic Trends to Consider in Planning for the Future

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Demographic Trends to Consider in Planning for
the Future
NDUS Strategy Forum Meeting the Needs of a
Changing Student Body June 8, 2009

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

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Presentation Objective
1. To present an overview of historical shifts in
population dynamics in North Dakota.
2. To examine current trends that will impact
education.
3. To discuss what will likely happen in
the future given current trends.
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Key Contextual Themes
1. Differing patterns of population change
2. Rapidly shifting age distribution
3. New economic paradigm
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Percent Population Change by State, 2000 to 2008
Source US Census Bureau
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Percent Population Change by State, 2007 to 2008
Source US Census Bureau
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Nonmetro Farming-Dependent Counties, 1989
Counties with 20 percent or more of income (labor
or proprietor) from farming
Other nonmetro counties
Farming counties
Metro counties
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Number and Average Size of N.D. Farms, 1900-2002
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of
Agriculture, various years.
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Why do you think about leaving?
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Farm Dependent Counties, 1950
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N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,
1900-2020
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
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North Dakota City Size 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.
Chart taken from the May 2002 Issue of the
Population Bulletin, published monthly by the
North Dakota State Data Center (Vol. 18, No. 5).
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Population Density
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Population

• North Dakotas population peaked in 1930 at
  680,845.
• The July 1, 2008 population estimate for North
  Dakota totaled 641,481, an increase of 3,577
  persons from 2007.

Source U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
the Population Estimates Branch,
http//www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
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North Dakota
Cass County
4 similar counties
40 similar counties
McIntosh County
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Percent Change in Total Population Estimates for
North Dakota by County July 1, 2007 to July 1,
2008
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center
June 2009
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Contextual Themes
2. Shifting age distribution
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2000 Census Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Traditional
Babyboom
X Generation
Y Generation
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Population Change by Age 2000 to 2004
Figure 1. Percent Change in Population by Age
Group North Dakota and the U.S. Census 2000 to
July 1, 2004 Estimate
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
Branch, www.census.gov/popest/counties/asrh/
Chart taken from the September 2005 Issue of the
Population Bulletin, published monthly by the
North Dakota State Data Center (Vol. 21, No. 9).
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MN, ND, and SD Residents who have Moved in Past
Year by Age, 2006
Total Movers by State
14.7
17.6
17.0
Universe Persons 1 year and older Source U.S.
Census Bureau, 2006 ACS, Table B07001.
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Persons Ages 5 to 19 Projected Percent Change in
Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 20 to 34 Projected Percent Change
in Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to
2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 35 to 54 Projected Percent Change
in Population in North Dakota by County, 2000 to
2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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Persons Ages 65 and Older Projected Percent
Change in Population in North Dakota by County,
2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 North
Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND Individual
state agencies providing population projections.
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PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS2000 to 2010 2000 to
2020(Source U.S. Census Bureau)
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Change in North Dakotas Labor Force by Age 1970
to 2020
Note The change in labor force participation was
calculated for 2010, 2015, and 2020 by applying
the 2006 ACS labor force participation rates to
the population projections. Sources - U.S. Census
Bureau 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census 2006
ACS. North Dakota State Data Center North
Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender
2010, 2015, 2020
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N.D. Labor Force, by Generation
Source Census Bureau North Dakota State Data
Center
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North Dakotas Labor Force Participation Rates by
Age 1980 to 2006
Sources - U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990 and 2000
Census 2006 ACS
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Population Distribution by Age of Earner in North
Dakota 1980-2020
Peaked in 1990
Peaked in 2000
Relatively stable until 2005
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2000Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
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Challenge for NDUS

• Loss of traditional-age students
• Competition for existing students
• Heavy reliance on out-of-state students
• Changing labor force composition
• New economy driving careers

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North Dakota Public K-12 Enrollment, 2004-2006
and 2008-2016 Projections
Source ND Department of Public Instruction
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Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022
North Dakota
Source WICHE/The College Board
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Proportion of Enrollment in NDUS, by Institution,
Under 20 years of Age 2008
Source NDSU, 2008 Fall Enrollments
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Percent of Out-of-State, First-Year Students in
Degree-Granting Institutions by State Fall 2004
44 from out-of-state
Source U.S. Dept. of Education, National Center
for Educational Statistics
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Contextual Themes
3. Economic paradigm shift
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The New Economy Paradigm
(C.K. Wong, Chinese General Chamber of Commerce)

• Industrial Age
• Old Paradigm
• Mass Production
• Mass Media
• Mass Marketing
• Economy of Scale

• Information Age
• New Paradigm
• Customized Production
• Individualize Presentation
• One-to-One Marketing
• Economy of Scope

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N.D. Gross State Product by Industry, 1979 and
2004
Source U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Gross State Product

• North Dakotas Gross State Product totaled 22.7
  billion in 2004.
• The Information industry, along with Professional
  and Technical services captured 7.4 of that
  total in 2004, or nearly 1.7 billion (a 54.5
  increase from 1.1 billion in 1997.

Source U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Regional Economic Accounts, www.bea.gov/regional/g
sp.htm
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Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Demographic Presentation 2009

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc